Fancy Store-Bought Dirt

Drafting 101: Market Value Does Matter

"When you find a player you want, go get him. Don't worry about it. Go get him. And that's what I did"
--Tom Cable, on (among other things) drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey seventh overall when Michael Crabtree was generally considered to be the top wide receiver on the board.

" The Cleveland Browns made three trades in the first round of the NFL draft, [...] sending the No. 5 overall pick to the New York Jets [...]. In return, Cleveland got the No. 17 pick, a second-rounder (No. 52) and three Jets: defensive end Kenyon Coleman, safety Abram Elam and quarterback Brett Ratliff.

On the clock for the fourth time, the Browns finally took the six-foot-four, 311-pound Alex Mack,"
--Canadian Press

But for the Raiders, with which pick would you have guessed Heyward-Bey to be drafted?

A Plausible 2009 NFL Schedule

If I did the Google Spreadsheet correctly then this is world-readable (but not world-editable).

The algorithm to set up 16 weeks of pairings is pretty straightforward by now. Everything is basically built off of Week 1 (the NBC kickoff game, where the best matchup is usually obvious; no late games on CBS at all because of the U.S. Open; and the ESPN double-header), Thanksgiving week, and anything else that's set in stone (like this year that Week 7 must be New England "at" Tampa Bay where those teams presumably get Week 8 byes). I like how this all works out, since (unless one makes a specific kludge), each team's first two games are one home and one road, ditto the next two, and the next two, etc. Certainly no three of the same kind in a row (unlike recent actual NFL schedules).

I don't yet know of a surefire, do-it-in-an-instant way to set the byes up right, but this year's version worked out very nicely very quickly.

And then after all that I've ended up staring at this thing forever just to get right mix of national TV games. A couple notes on that front:

1. Yeah, the OAK/SF TV games of necessity show that I didn't set up their west coast road games & non-conference home games as efficiently as ideal, but it's not terrible.

2. I purposely set it up so that all 32 teams made at least one TV appearance. Last year that didn't happen (no Cincy, St. Louis, Kansas City, or Miami); maybe it shouldn't necessarily happen.

3. These days with the flex schedule, if I remember right all non-West Coast Sunday afternoon games are published with a 1:00 Eastern kickoff so that once NBC picks/confirms its game, the right "late games" can be chosen. If you look at weeks 14-16 of this one it should be obvious which games we'd (at the moment) think of as the right featured games.

Anyway, it's something I always like to do just because it could be done.

Troy Aikman Graduates

Random thoughts about this story:

1. I would have gotten his alma mater wrong because I remember the first college he went to (which isn't mentioned anywhere in the article).

2. One class on race & ethnicity, one on aging: I suppose that's what classes would be for a Sociology major, but they still don't exactly sound like academic heft. (They do beat the infamous Matt Leinart "ballroom dancing" class.)

3. I wonder whether on any of his papers or exams he wrote, "You're exactly right, [name of professor]."

4. We now know that Fox does not require a college diploma for its on-air talent. Not that a college diploma would strictly relate to the job requirements anyway, but these days so many jobs require a college diploma just for the sake of requiring one. As exceptions it's funny to think of TV commentary and food service in the same bucket.

Even More on the Champion / Best Team Dichotomy

Given the bile I vented to Harvey Araton, I should also comment on some of the hand-wringing (navel gazing?) (mainly by Aaron Schatz) in the Football Outsiders Audibles thread:

The passage that stuck out to me is quoted in full below, but the main point of my objections ar Schatz's: "the champion should be a team that played well in both the regular season and the playoffs, not just the latter" and Bill Barnwell's "the idea that the champion is the champion is pretty murky when the reason they're the champion and not the Cardinals is a bunch of good breaks and penalty calls".

He's dead-on with the "and penalty calls" part: you never want to see the officiating cloud the legitimacy of the win-loss outcome. As for the rest, I have absolutely no problem with the idea that variance happens and, if the ground rules and general competition framework are otherwise fair, luck just happens.

(Have I mentioned lately that, for reasons completely unrelated to my opinion of the teams involved, this may still be my all-time favorite NFL regular-season game?)

Every year we know that one, and only one, NFL team will win the Super Bowl, and we tip our hat to them. It's still exactly one champion - it's not as if they gave those NFC teams of the 1980s and 1990s a second ring just for winning the final so crushingly.

As for Schatz's point: well, yes, the threshold of playing well in the regular season is why we should prefer a relatively small playoff field, and not take seriously a league where (say) more than half the teams make the playoffs. Arizona went 9-7 in a very easy division, it's true (and looked gawdawful in some December games), but that to me is at best a quirky edge case, and far short of a hole in the system (and they don't put style points in the standings anyway).

Aaron Schatz: After driving home, I feel a weird calm. I feel like the universe has been put back into an order that makes some kind of sense. I wonder if this is what Superman feels like after one of those DC Comics "crisis" events. (Actually, Superman has some control over that situation. Maybe this is what Jimmy Olsen feels like after one of those DC Comics "crisis" events.)

Aaron Schatz: Right, good point, Ned. We shouldn't confuse the concept that "turnover returns are a non-repeatable play that we don't include in DVOA because they may not be a good judge of the defense's inherent quality" with the idea that "a long turnover return is random chance." There was a lot of athletic talent shown on that return, and excellent blocking.

Two More Things I Hate About that Araton Column

Continuing this discussion of this Sports of the Times (NY Times) post:

1.

"A few weeks? There is no such luxury in the college game, in which the system for sure has flaws, human and computerized, but would never allow for such degradation of its regular season."

There are about 100 FBS college football teams (on the order of the 7th power of 2: you see why one has to round up, right?) that play 11-12 games, which isn't terribly many beyond what you'd need just to make the whole thing a single-elimination tournament. Even within a conference you typically have more than 8 teams (so 4th power of 2) playing a vast majority of their games in conference.

There are 32 NFL teams (exactly 5th power of 2) who play 16 regular-season games (so more than three times as many as the single-elimination threshold); each division has four teams (2nd power of 2) who play nearly two thirds of their games outside of the division.

Maybe this calls for bigger divisions, but even then you'll still see degradation of the regular season.

2.

How about borrowing from the B.C.S. and creating a ranking formula that would allow for human intervention when the standings present a team one game north of .500 with an opportunity to play a conference championship game at home?

How on Earth does the second part of his sentence require either "borrowing from the B.C.S." or "a ranking formula"? Just change the NFL playoff seeding so that instead of automatically giving division champs seeds 1-4, the only guarantee a division champion gets is to be in the conference's top six?

Champion != Best Team

Is Harvey Araton trying to play devil's advocate or is his mental capacity just that limited?

The obvious goal of any particular league, or tournament, is to win the thing. (And to have fun if you're a child, or make money if you're a professional, but in general those are the goals of forming a league rather than competing in one.)

Every legitimate league needs a fair, transparent way to crown a champion in a way that rewards excellent performance (you could say the team that played the best when it mattered, though it leads us into the weeds about how define "when it mattered"). What you do NOT necessarily need, nor would you even want (if yours is at all a spectator sport), is a format that simply declares the winner to be "the best team on paper."

Nobody in his right mind would argue that the Arizona Cardinals were the best team of the 2008 NFL season (or for that matter that the St. Louis Cardinals were the best team of the 2006 baseball season)*. But THAT'S NOT THE POINT. This isn't some lab experiment where the point is to measure Championship (or "bestness") as an intrinsic property. It's a contest, where many unexpected things will happen and would be impossible to reproduce.

Did anyone, after the last Super Bowl, scratch his head and say "oops, I guess all this time the New York Giants were the better team"? On a particular Sunday they were; over the previous few weeks they may or may not have been (since they also were the best on a particular Saturday evening a few weeks before). For the 12-month period they get an honorary, ceremonial claim of being the best, though it seems weird to me that anyone would have a pressing need to know which team REALLY WAS the best over the course of those 12 months (rather than 2 months or 60 months, also periods over which team talent and performance may vary considerably).

Anyway, you could argue ad infinitum about the best person/team of any particular sport/game and time period. Everyone vastly overrates the importance of a championship game to settling that question, though to a lesser extent they overrate the question itself, since the goal isn't to be "the best" but rather to win.

[*- OK, infamous rec.sport.baseball poster Roger Maynard would, and he has a point far more respectable than the credit he got, but it's sort of a "by definition" convention. If your life depended on playing a football game in February 2009, or a baseball game in November 2006, and you had to pick a franchise/roster of the time rather than an all-star squad, you surely wouldn't pick either Cardinal team. Maynard would probably ask WTF should someone care about a weird hypothetical like that - he certainly wouldn't care - but the logical extension of his point is that none of this is really worth talking about anyway, which makes it ironic that he posted so much.]

Economic Incentives 101

Under [Bill] Parcells, [Dallas Cowboy] players were fined $5,000 for being late to meetings, and as much as $12,000 for missing an injury treatment session. This season, players were fined $100 for being late to meetings or missing a treatment.

The team charter left late for road games five times this season because players were late to the airport according to three sources. The total represented more than half of the eight regular season away games. Sources declined to name the late players. The Philadelphia trip was delayed by more than an hour.
--Dallas Morning News (paragraphs out of order for effect)

Three Points of Supposed NFL Outrage That I Just Don't Get

1. Mike Singletary's halftime speech, where he pointed to his (boxers-clad, we now know) butt to make a point about how his team was playing. (I mentioned this weeks ago, of course, but since it's become the obligatory reference when people write about Singletary as a coach...)

2. "On a lighter note, do you wish your daughter would have married a better defensive coordinator?"

I'm actually quite fond of this question -- and liked it even more before I realized it was prefaced by "on a lighter note." Joe Posnanski convincingly argues that it's not a very effective question, in that there's zero chance it will illicit a productive response. Still, if ever a press conference question could get away with being rhetorical... basically, if you make a nepotistic hire who proves to be completely inept, you have it coming.

3. Any NFL taunt that involves spontaneous use of a prop (see comment #2 for an example of the outrage). Now, if it's premeditated use of a prop then I will roll my eyes and let out a long sigh with anyone.

What these three have in common (aside from all being from the NFL) is that the people who claim to be most outraged by them has, as an apparent side effect of that outrage, the categorical need to discuss their own outrage at length (Joe Buck is by far the worst offender: his call yesterday was basically a reprise of when Randy Moss taunted Packer fans). If (for the sake of argument) something is so utterly without class that it has no place, then why validate its existence? Studiously ignore it and it will go unnoticed or forgotten.

Football Has Mixed Strategy Equilibria, NOT Dominant Strategy

Chances are that's the best simple answer any time Boomer Esiason (or his ilk) sits in a TV studio and asks gruffly "Why would you do that?"

Whether he would understand that answer is another story.

(If it's a jargon issue, then try: "You have to mix it up just enough that the other team can't always shut you down by preventing the obvious play.")

[The specific play that brought this up was a fake punt on fourth and inches at midfield. If it works, first down! If it doesn't... other team ball at midfield isn't the end of the world if your own defense is that good. It has to be at least smart enough to try this once every seven or eight times.]

Distinctly 1990s Boston Sports Figures

(It's ambiguous whether this means you'd see the person's name and think "Boston sports of the 1990s," or whether that person's name plus Boston = 1990s.)

Mo Vaughn, Tim Naehring

Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll, Drew Bledsoe, Ben Coates

If you were there then, who else? It's hard to beat Mo for poster child of this theme.

(This is relevant to me because I was there then but not this decade, and because this decade the Red Sox and Patriots combined for five more championships than those two teams had won the previous 80 years combined -- with drastic effect on the caricature of a Boston sports fan.)

games.espn.go.com

If you do fantasy sports on ESPN then you'll want this link. Good luck ever finding it from the new front page (I started at it a few seconds, admitted defeat, and Googled it: this would seem to suggest that the redesign is flawed).

In related news my "Streak for the Cash" suffered a setback and begins from scratch.

NFL Playoff Thoughts

Atlanta at Arizona
Bertrand Berry told Dan Patrick that Matt Ryan (incidentally, how bad does a nickname have to be -- and how many times must the announcing team run that bad nickname into the ground even as the subject of that nickname is laying an egg -- before the nickname alone justifies abruptly renouncing one's fandom of a given athlete?) used the exact same snap count the entire game.

Many years ago, Dick Enberg would slobber all over John Elway for (among other things) varying the snap count. Failure to do so seems like a very subtle example of rookie quarterbacking.

Fantasy football angle: (the 2008 fantasy season is long since wrapped up but I still have vestigial inclinations to root) Matt Ryan [multiple teams], Kurt Warner, Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald (on the same team), Adrian Wilson.

Indianapolis at San Diego
The NFL overtime rule has to change. As it stands now the team that wins the coin flip gets an immediate (and avoidable!) advantage. The ridiculously easy fix would be to guaranteed both teams at least one possession, with sudden death thereafter.

I love that a punter was so responsible for this victory, and that he was recognized as such.

Fantasy football angle: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne (multiple teams), Darren Sproles[!!] - I took a flier on Sproles right before his big Week 2 game (never actually started him), just in case Tomlinson ever got hurt. Too bad this wasn't a keeper league.

Baltimore at Miami
Whenever a player gets a reputation for something (e.g. Chad Pennington avoiding turnovers) that may have a lot to do with luck, beware of him suddenly being the exact opposite of character. [This is why any, playoff series now, I expect Alex Rodriguez to wreak angry vengeance. It will happen before his career is done.]

I'd completely forgotten about Bill Parcells presiding over the Dolphins now. That knocks them down a good 10-15 slots in my interest in rooting for Miami relative to other NFL teams. (Hey, quick malicious pleasure trivia: Describe in one sentence or less the ending of Parcells's final game as an NFL head coach.)

Incidentally, Joe Flacco had an atrocious line this game (just 9-of-23 passing). I suppose he'll still get credit for "game management," since at least he wasn't turnover-happy.

Fantasy football angle: Le'Ron McClain (same team as Sprole - the only time I actually started him, he got negative points), Chad Pennington (also the same team: I started him once, and cut him right before the final game to insure Matt Forte with the other Adrian Peterson)

Philadelphia at Minnesota
That screen pass was what Brian Westbrook does best, and it alone turned a bad stat line into a decent one that was still below his usual standard. Some great blocks on the play, too.

Did you notice the graphic that showed Adrian Peterson's yards gained (or lost), carry by carry. A humongous % of those were what Football Outsiders would (correctly) describe as "unsuccessful" plays.

Fantasy football angle: McNabb, Westbrook, Jared Allen - yeah, 2/3 of my Individual Defensive Player mainstays played this weekend, and Jon Beason is still to come.

Favre Schadenfreude

Surprisingly delicious (see also...). (Did I remember to blog my irrational dislike of Favre earlier this year, or did I just mention it to football-loving friends?)

And yet still not quite as delicious as Dallas Cowboy schadenfreude.

(Incidentally I was happy the Raiders won Sunday. If Al Davis fell off the face of the Earth, either by literally dying or just laying low, the Raiders could even ascend to frenemy status.)

NFL: 32-Team Allegiance Tournament

As occupied my time on a recent plane flight, this is similar to the quarterback thing that I recently started but neglected and abandoned.

Suppose two particular NFL teams faced each other in a neutral site playoff game this week, with the winner advancing to the divisional round (but complete ambiguity about whom the winner would face or where). Who would you root for? Anyway, carry this out as a five-round "card system" (pre-arranged Swiss pair sequence) 32-team tournament.

These are presented from worst to best, as ranked by win total with win sequence as the tiebreaker.

(0-5)

32. Dallas Cowboys (00000: phi, cle, was, nyg, bal)
The 2008 Cowboys are the perfect storm of anti-rooting, made possible by grown men behaving like 12-year-old girls and sports media treating this with thousands of times the importance it deserved. I'm also annoyed to this day by the bandwagon that followed Cowboys of the Aikman-Smith-Irvin era, not to mention that all three of the ones I named wound up with broadcasting gigs far above their level of broadcast competence.

(1-4)

31. Baltimore Ravens (00001: tb, ne, nyj, oak, DAL)
This could be surprising. You might also claim it's suspect, since it implies that I would have been even happier to see the Ravens lose yesterday (and Patriots get a playoff spot after all) than to have the 11-5 Patriots miss the playoffs. Maybe, maybe not -- it never seemed plausible to me that the Ravens would lose yesterday with Jacksonville having quit weeks ago. I could let up on the Ravens in the post-Billick era, but don't expect anything until #52 retires (or at least networks stop treating him as the camera time focal point of the team).

30. Oakland Raiders (00010: den, cin, min, BAL, nyg)
It's fun that they're so bad, of course. I'll probably like them once their current owner dies.

29. New York Jets (00100: det, sd, BAL, min, was)
Continuing a run of teams where one person is almost solely responsible for my anti-rooting interest. The 2007 Jets would have placed way higher, and the 2009 Jets probably will.

28. New England Patriots (01000: ind, BAL, sd, cin, cle)
Those three capitalized BAL in a row are kind of amusing.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (10000: MIN, atl, stl, det, buf)
Did I mention how egregiously the 2008 Jaguars folded up?

(2-3)

26. NY Giants (00011: gb, car, sea, DAL, OAK)
And yet they were such a fun story in 2007. Some of this is anti-bandwagon, some anti-New York, some anti-NFC East. I also dislike "Big Blue" wearing those ugly and nickname-inconsistent red uniforms.

25. Washington Redskins (00101: ari, kc, DAL, sea, NYJ)
Politicians (and political pundits) as sports fans are tiresome. And even though this doesn't make much difference to me, the obligatory note that their team name is a slur, crossing a line that none of {Indians, Chiefs, even Braves} approach.

24. Minnesota Vikings (00110: jax, ten, OAK, NYJ, sea)
This isn't Adrian Peterson's fault so much as his fans (mostly for fantasy football reasons).

23. Cleveland Browns (01001: pit, DAL, kc, car, NE)
By the way, Romeo Crennel cost Chad a fantasy football semifinal game by calling a timeout late in the Browns-Eagles Monday night game, caring about the game just long enough to get Braylon Edwards one more reception, THEN taking a knee.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (01010: stl, OAK, ten, NE, car)
As good a time as any to point out what a big difference opponent sequence (thus initial pairings) makes to this particular sort order.

21. San Diego Chargers (01100: chi, NYJ, NE, ten, kc)
Rallying from 4-8 to make the playoffs isn't bad, though they shouldn't have played that badly to begin with (either in the first 12 games or in the first 55 minutes of the game at KC).

20. Buffalo Bills (10001: SEA, hou, gb, ari, JAX)
Such a blah team. Worthy fans though.

19. Detroit Lions (10010: NYJ, chi, tb, JAX, ari)
Of course the "neutral site playoff game" hypothetical is almost out-the-window for this team: for that to possibly happen this wouldn't be the 2008 Lions.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10100: BAL, ind, DET, stl, gb)
I think I might dislike Jon Gruden these days. They have a wonderful radio play-by-play guy, though, and Jeff Garcia is likable. Anyway, what a choke!

17. San Francisco 49ers (11000: CAR, GB, hou, mia, ind)
I think I do like Mike Singletary, and the late-season rally was fun to watch. They just got in over their heads with the last three pairings above -- yes, that points out a potential flaw in Swiss pairs.

(3-2)

16. Seattle Seahawks (00111: buf, no, NYG, WAS, MIN)
The flaw, of course, is that you can't (well, shouldn't) just forever segregate the round 1 winners from the round 1 losers. You can, up to a point, but there should be a couple rounds past that point as a failsafe against "Swiss gambit." Anyway this is a blah team, whose week 16 win over the Jets was still nifty.

15. Carolina Panthers (01011: sf, NYG, no, CLE, CIN)
I'd been thinking DeAngelo Williams broke the Buccaneers (who were never the same after that Monday night loss) but a Football Outsiders audible at the line pointed out a better correlation: Monte Kiffin announcing he'd coach at the U. of Tennessee.

14. Kansas City Chiefs (01101: mia, WAS, CLE, no, SD)
A big chunk of my NFL experience is phone conversations with a Rams fan whose wife is a Chiefs fan. Hard to say how this affects the allegiance.

13. Tennessee Titans (01110: atl, MIN, CIN, SD, no)
I like Jeff Fisher and had Chris Johnson on 75% of my fantasy teams. Not such a fan of the ownership or the franchise relocation.

12. Arizona Cardinals (10011: WAS, mia, phi, BUF, DET)
Aside from Will Leitch I actually know a fair bit of Cardinal fans, who went to Arizona State.

11. Green Bay Packers (10101: NYG, sf, BUF, phi, TB)
Ah, Cheeseheads. Many of them are Lutheran. (At any given ELCA church anywhere in the country, some large plurality of the congregation has moved from either MN or WI. This always comes up the day of a Viking-Packer game.)

10. St. Louis Rams (10110: CIN, den, JAX, TB, phi)
Chad's team.

9. Indianapolis Colts (11001: NE, TB, chi, den, SF)
I think I rooted for the Colts in that Super Bowl, but it makes a big difference that P. Manning has one ring now rather than zero.

8. Miami Dolphins (11010: KC, ARI, pit, SF, den)
Like Chad Pennington, love the new offense.

7. Chicago Bears (11100: SD, DET, IND, atl, hou)
My family is in the Chicago area now, of course. Funny that the last match-up is the one wherein the Bears blew their playoff spot yesterday.

(4-1)

6. New Orleans Saints (01111: hou, SEA, CAR, KC, TEN)
Even when the statute of Katrina sympathy limitation runs out, Drew Brees will still be quite underrated. Fun team to watch.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (10111: DAL, pit, ARI, GB, STL)
McNabb and Westbrook could be the NFL's most underrated QB and RB (McNabb because he attracts a ridiculous amount of ridicule, Westbrook because he's so good). Need better coaching and less fickle fans, but fun to follow their highs and lows.

4. Denver Broncos (11011: OAK, STL, atl, IND, MIA)
A bit of an upset in the middle, and a sign of intransitivity: I'd probably root for the Broncos over the Steelers (and make friendly symbolic wagers), or over just about any team except maybe Philadelphia. Not that I'm happy with how the season ended: They got their "blown out on national TV" ending a week earlier than otherwise expected. (Is there any other franchise in pro sports more closely associated with getting clobbered -- just massacred -- in big games?)

3. Houston Texans (11101: NO, BUF, SF, pit, CHI)
One of my co-workers had a Matt Schaub - Andre Johnson fantasy football connection, just like me. Really a nifty team, of course still the NFL's "baby" (newest expansion team), who would have made the playoffs at least once by now in an easier division.

2. Atlanta Falcons (11110: TEN, JAX, DEN, CHI, pit)
I love the post-Vick turnaround, and I love Wes Durham's soft I's as heard on the NFL video highlights. I'm inordinately fond of Matt Ryan despite his subpar recent stat lines. Years ago this was, of course, the last team Dan Reeves led to the Super Bowl.

(5-0)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11111: CLE, PHI, MIA, HOU, ATL)
My cat's namesake is a Steeler now, and two of the biggest football fans I know are Steeler diehards who intermittently blog about it and send really funny "At the Half" e-mails (one of whom got Mewelde her own Terrible Towel). I liked Bill Cowher but love Mike Tomlin. Having said all that, I must say that three of these (Eagles, Texans(!), Falcons) almost went the other way, and Steelers-Broncos would probably go the other way (not definitely, just probably). So their win here, in this exercise in frivolity, has a thin margin just like many of their real-life 2008 wins.

Fantasy Football: Draft Days Revisited

Because I can.

Teams presented from my worst finish to my best finish. Notable booms/busts in red or green, keepers in italics.

1. (13) Willie Parker RB
2. (16) Reggie Wayne WR
3. (41) Andre Johnson WR
4. (44) Marques Colston WR
5. (69) DeAngelo Williams RB
6. (72) Heath Miller TE
7. (97) Maurice Morris RB
8. (100) Marc Bulger QB
9. (125) Chicago DEF
10. (128) Owen Daniels TE
11. (153) Selvin Young RB
12. (156) Jamaal Charles RB
13. (181) Matt Ryan QB
14. (184) Eddie Royal WR
15. (209) Jeff Reed K
16. (212) Mario Manningham WR

Just before the season began I traded Manningham and Daniels for James Hardy and Dustin Keller. This would've been break-even, had I been patient enough to keep Keller until he blossomed (for his keeper value). My failure to do so (roster crunch) made it a very lopsided deal.

1 Steven Jackson
2 Willie Parker
3 DeMeco Ryans
4 Donovan McNabb
5 Roddy White
(so "Round 6" is effectively "Round 1" in this league, my picks are 7th of even rounds, 4th of odd)
6 Larry Fitzgerald
7 Santonio Holmes
8 Matt Forte
9 Laveranues Coles
10 Jared Allen
11 Ricky Williams
12 Adrian Wilson
13 Jon Kitna
14 Chris Johnson
15 Isaac Bruce
16 Bob Sanders
17 Maurice Morris
18 James Hardy
19 Phil Dawson

1. (11) Clinton Portis RB
2. (14) Peyton Manning QB
3. (35) Reggie Bush RB
4. (38) Plaxico Burress WR
5. (59) Calvin Johnson WR
6. (62) Chris Perry RB
7. (83) Chris Johnson RB
8. (86) Rashard Mendenhall RB
9. (107) Joey Galloway WR
10. (110) Patrick Crayton WR
11. (131) Donald Lee TE
12. (134) Kurt Warner QB
13. (155) Seattle DEF
14. (158) Mason Crosby K

2 Brian Westbrook
19 Reggie Wayne
22 Andre Johnson
39 Steve Smith
42 Darren McFadden
59 Matt Forte
62 Tony Gonzalez
79 Justin Fargas
82 Matt Schaub
99 Tony Scheffler
102 Chris Johnson
119 Isaac Bruce
122 Kevin Jones
139 Sidney Rice
142 Ronald Curry
159 Drew Bennett
162 Matt Ryan
179 Jaguars D/ST
182 Mason Crosby

Not shown here: I foolishly dropped Isaac Bruce after his Week 1 goose-egg.

Plaxico

Deadspin has tagged 23 stories with the word Plaxico. 21 of them involve his shooting himself (or at least were posted after he did that). One was his tardiness incident.

Here's the other/earliest one, which is even more hilarious now that we know what he did 18 months later.

King Kaufman Improves Upon My Snarky College Football Playoff Stance

...in this column, basically by quoting Dan Wetzel for truth.

As Wetzel points out, "The NCAA has nothing to do with major college football's postseason; it doesn't even officially recognize a champion."

To split hairs, the NCAA does recognize a Football Championship Subdivision champion, and has (apparently) made the tacit decision that the attempt to organize a "major college" football championship would fail for lack of participation.

Right now the bowls are indeed a cartel, and the only way around that isn't for Barack Obama to pontificate (or worse yet to socialize) but rather for interest parties with any economic power over the "major college" programs to create economic incentive for them to ditch the bowls -- something like putting their booster donations in escrow.

I don't expect this to happen any time soon until someone solves the problem of why any given booster should withhold funds unless/until he knows that the archrival school also has a booster doing the same thing.

If you squint enough this is similar to the vote swap problem (a major party supporter in California finds a third-party supporter in a swing state) except that the kind of contracts one would need to make would be perfectly legal.

Fantasy Football 2008 is Over

Two championships, a semifinal loss, and a pre-playoff choke (finished 7th of 14).

Vanilla Vick (previously "Simon Jonathan Oct. 5," previously "Baby is Due Sept. 28")

This Year: 7th of 14. Got off to a 6-3 start but dropped the next four despite putting up much better points in the second half. Win-loss record bore almost no correlation to performance, and it wasn't even schedule shape so much as insanely good luck followed by insanely bad.

Last Year: didn't make the playoffs either, think I was either 7th or 8th

Three Stars:
3. Eddie Royal. Not for his 2008 value (19th best WR isn't bad for a rookie but it's nowhere near MVP territory) but because I get to keep him in 2009 for a 14th round pick. Also because who else would go here, Reggie Wayne? (Maybe Matt Ryan on the same "keeper value" philosophy.)

2. Andre Johnson. Third best WR, carried my team in the winning weeks. Ineligible to be kept, unless we found a way to hold a draft with a 0th round.

1. DeAngelo Williams. #1 RB. Yes, it was painful being shut out of the playoffs just as he rolled. I like the idea of keeping him for a 4th round pick but I'd hate to be whoever overpays for him in the top 5-7 picks of a redraft league.

Most Disappointing:
3. Marc Bulger. Off my roster completely after Week 3.

2. Selvin Young. So how many other Bronco RB had to be injured before he got his opportunity again, only to show that he's too fragile to be the feature back?

1. Willie Parker. Injury isn't ineptness but it's still a string of zeros (admittedly with fair warning to bench the guy). Granting that keeper inflation is at work here, one expects more from the first round pick (#13 overall).

Best Pickups:
3. Sammy Morris. Even though I only got to use him once (the Monday night game where he had a big first half then hurt himself.)

2. John Carlson. Heath Miller had an outside shot at "most disappointing."

1. Tyler Thigpen. I'm saddened that his 2009 job is in jeopardy. Yes, the turnovers are killer, but when you're losing games 38-31 and getting no pass rush, it's not the offense that needs the most help.

Playoff MVP:
no playoff games (but obviously would've been DeAngelo Williams)

--

^@^ ^@^

This Year: Lost a semifinal, when nobody stank but nobody stepped up either.

Last Year: Lost a quarterfinal, almost entirely for lack of WR production that week.

Three Stars:
3. Roddy White. It's atypical to find the league's 6th best WR in this spot. It could've been Chris Johnson but I used Johnson surprisingly sparingly (see lineup note below).

2. Matt Forte. #5 RB, and top point total on the team.

1. Larry Fitzgerald. #1 WR in a league that makes you start three WR/TE but only two RB.

Most Disappointing:
3. Santonio Holmes. No real clunkers on this team, compared to my others. He wound up #30 among WR.

2. Willie Parker. See injury note above.

1. Steven Jackson. Although Parker was the bigger absolute bust, Jackson was the sky's-the-limit expectation game.

Best Pickups:
3. Jon Beason. Wound up #4 among linebackers (ah, Individual Defensive Players...)

2. Mewelde Moore. This is the one league where I had both Parker and Moore.

1. Tyler Thigpen. Despite less playing time, wound up ahead of Donovan McNabb on the season (#9 to #10, 190.5 points to 185). They were consistently back-to-back in the high single digits of the playoff week "player rankings" on Yahoo!/ESPN/etc., and I consistently stuck with McNabb.

Playoff MVP:
Donovan McNabb. He had great must-win games and didn't lay an egg until I was already consigned to the 3rd place game.

--

Tatum Bellhops

This Year: Champion! (Won the final 73-70, only time all year a losing team in that league scored 70+ points)

Last Year: Lost a semifinal, with Westbrook's non-touchdown the difference. (He's still my favorite FFL player and that was still unambiguously the right thing to do.)

Three Stars:
3. Clinton Portis. Finished only 12th among RB but that production was heavily weighted to before his injury. Incidentally, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner were only the 5th and 6th best QBs; between that and their taking playing time away from each other I don't regret their lack of "star" after all.

2. Chris Johnson. Ninth best RB. I started him every game except Week 1 (see below) and his bye. (Worth mentioning mainly because of injuries and the QB platoon.)

1. Calvin Johnson. Second-best WR, used him every game except his bye.

Most Disappointing:
3. Joey Galloway. Here by default, really. The only thing I needed him to do was have a good Week 4 match-up (when Calvin and Plaxico were both on bye), and he couldn't even stay healthy long enough for that.

2. Plaxico Burress. To be fair he had some good weeks before he self-destructed.

1. Chris Perry. Started Week 1, and I quickly realized my mistake.

Best Pickups:
3. Mewelde Moore. Yeah, my cat's namesake made two different "Best Pickup" lists. Woo.

2. Owen Daniels. Just my luck the hurricane hit Houston, and whoever had drafted Daniels dropped him to be able to have a week 2 TE without disturbing the rest of his roster.

1. Pierre Thomas. So there was that Monday night game when Reggie Bush might or might not have been about to return, and I wanted to have the chance to start him if he did, but needed a Plan B. Obviously my free agent pickup would be the best available Saint or Packer. Worked out pretty well.

Playoff MVP:
Pierre Thomas. See above.

--

le chat du plafond

This Year: Champion! No close playoff games, though I'm deeply thankful that the other finalist knocked Team DeAngelo Williams out of the semifinal.

Last Year: I wasn't in this league. It's apples-and-oranges, but I was in an ESPN "Premium" public league (a freebie because the screwed up the first week of fantasy baseball that year) and lost the final.

Three Stars:
3. Brian Westbrook. #7 among RB despite all the time he missed to injury. Edges out Andre Johnson (who was #2 in this Points Per Reception league even though Calvin was #2 in that other league).

2. Matt Forte. #3 among Rb

1. Tony Gonzalez. Not only #1 among TE, but 33% better than the #2 (Jason Witten)!

Most Disappointing:
2t. Eddie Ronald Curry (heh) and Sidney Rice. This seemed like almost a disappointment-free team until I remembered having parted ways with my curry and rice so long ago. It's a shame, since their names go well together. We start four WR in this league and they were ostensibly my 4th and 5th best (so they both started when Steve Smith began with a suspension). I'm so glad Eddie Royal was available a couple days before Week 1.

1. Darren McFadden. Odd in hindsight that he was the rookie RB I drafted first.

Best Pickups:
3. NY Jets Defense. Ah, such well-timed touchdowns.

2. Stephen Gostkowski. He became the #1 kicker. An interesting question is what to do about the likes of Le'Ron McClain (the one week I used him was the one week he had negative points) or Tashard Choice (picked up a couple weeks ago, never used), whose best benefit to me was my depriving other owners of their services. (Yes, I had two 20-point RB on my Week 16 bench before Sunday even began.) But Gostkowski and the Jets just did too much for me, after I'd switched to them (for the obvious bye week reasons) at the same time.

1. Eddie Royal A very mild point of pride: His explosive Week 1 came after I'd picked him up, likewise with Darren Sproles and Week 2 (when there were idle rumors of LaDainian being banged up). This pride is tempered by my not actually starting either of those players their big week but, unlike Sproles, Royal did become a lineup fixture.

Playoff MVP:
Reggie Wayne. Just a 10-team league so just a semifinal and final (after a 14-week regular season). Wayne was my lead scorer (in a very balanced effort) in the championship game, and although he was a half-point behind both Andre Johnson and Steve Smith for most points the two weeks combined, Johnson and Smith got nearly all their points in the semifinal blowout.

Rick Reilly

The essential problem with Rick Reilly's is the same as the essential problem with Tim McCarver's baseball broadcasting (that is, if McCarver weren't also a cranky old man who frequently got his facts wrong):

Their target audience is eight years old.

Most recent example:

"They played the oddest game in high school football history last month down in Grapevine, Texas.

Did you hear that? The other team's fans? "

Is that most recent paragraph strictly necessary? The last time I read text that cloying it was this book (which is wonderful for what it is). I can only assume this books (they inundate me with Facebook ads: do I know any Dodger fans who still remember "Gibby's" home run?) have the same tone.

"Stupid S**t Phil Simms Said This Week"

(asterisks in original)

Remember the Tuck Rule game? During the replay review Simms was so dead convinced it was a fumble, and I was already running so late to a party (why an early January party? it was partly a going-away party; as it happens I was also picking up two friends to carpool down to Stanford), that I took his word and just turned the TV off.

My first friend had to tell me the game was still going. We heard the end of that game on the radio from a progressively angrier Greg Papa. Many events in life would be unintentionally hilarious if narrated by Greg Papa from the losing/aggrieved point of view.

Rank These In Order of Interest

(presented in arbitrary order)

1. Montage of dropped fly balls
2. Montage of dropped touchdown passes
3. Montage of missed slam dunks
4. Montage of missed soccer goals (like this one...)

I'd say the missed goals are most dramatic, missed slam dunks the funniest. I'm surprised not to be familiar with any particular dropped touchdown pass highlight video; bringing up the rear are the dropped fly balls if only because they show an old blooper reel at seemingly every game.

32 NFL Quarterbacks, One Card System: Round 1 of 5

An idle game from trying to fall asleep last night: Rank the current 32 NFL starting quarterbacks by a completely subjective "whom do I like more?" But a complete 1-to-32 ranking is impossible to do reliably, so one could set it up like a tournament... or better yet use a convenient pre-set Swiss pairing structure, also known as the "card system" (for tournaments where each competitor brings a placard to a match and the winner takes the placard with the number closer to #1).

For the initial card number assignment, alphabetical by team geographic name is as good as anything.

#1. Kurt Warner (Arizona) vs. #32. Jason Campbell (Washington): Campbell is quintessentially league-average, right? I'm fond of Warner for all the ups and downs: Arena Football, then the Greatest Show on Turf era, then years of being held back by his own mistakes, now the resurgence. Most of the hype that Brett Favre gets should go to Warner. Winner: Kurt Warner

#2. Matt Ryan (Atlanta) vs. #31. Kerry Collins (Tennessee): Ryan is an early favorite to win the whole thing. I like his poise and his first name; I only hope the bandwagon doesn't collapse from overload. (I'm a bit smug about using two leagues' late-round draft picks on him before the season.) Collins: Not evil by any means, but the Rick Reilly piece on him was, like most things Reilly, painfully inessential. Winner: Matt Ryan

#3. Joe Flacco (Baltimore) vs. #30. Jeff Garcia (Tampa Bay): As much as I over-thought a fantasy football choice between Donovan McNabb and Tyler Thigpen this past weekend, it turns out Garcia out-pointed them both (while McNabb, whom I stuck with, exceeded Thigpen by a single point). Meanwhile, Garcia's facing the Lions a few weeks ago serendipitously saved me from McNabb's egg against Baltimore. Flacco: just not quite as good as Ryan, and fine by me but not compelling. I like the way Garcia handles a game. Winner: Jeff Garcia

#4. JP Losman (Buffalo) vs. #29. Seneca Wallace (Seattle): Injuries yield our first cover-your-eyes match-up. Wallace by default. (Of the four possible configurations, maybe I take Trent Edwards over Wallace, otherwise it's the Seahawk.) Winner: Seneca Wallace

#5. Jake Delhomme (Carolina) vs. #28. Shaun Hill (San Francisco): It's been years since that Super Bowl run. Since then Delhomme has had surprisingly many atrocious games. Second year in a row Shaun Hill has taken over the 49ers and suddenly they start winning games. Winner: Shaun Hill

#6.Kyle Orton (Chicago) vs. #27. Philip Rivers (San Diego): If you read Deadspin and Kissing Suzy Kolber then you think of this as "Neckbeard vs. Marmalard." If this were purely a matter of which QB you'd choose to win a football game, of course it'd be Rivers. Here's where the Marmalard reference started; I shouldn't just swallow this meme whole, but I'm too lazy not to. Winner: Kyle Orton

#7. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Cincinnati) vs. #26. Marc Bulger (St. Louis): A sympathy vote for the Harvard alumnus. Winner: Ryan Fitzpatrick

#8. Ken Dorsey (Cleveland) vs. #25. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh): Did you know that alphabetizing the NFL teams then pairing them 1-32, 2-31, etc., would yield three straight that are bitter rivalries in real life? This is the first. I take Ben over any Cleveland QB. Winner: Ben Roethlisberger

#9. Tony Romo (Dallas) vs. #24. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia): In an e-mail thread, Chad Kubicek noted that the phrase "needlessly pilloried" aptly describes most of McNabb's NFL career. Winner: Donovan McNabb

#10. Jay Cutler (Denver) vs. #23. JaMarcus Russell (Oakland): Russell supposedly has a cannon arm suitable for throwing 60-70 yards in the air. Too bad the Raiders have no way to put that to productive use. Winner: Jay Cutler

#11. Daunte Culpepper (Detroit) vs. #22. Brett Favre (NY Jets): This exemplifies the flip side of "whom do I like more." You name the Lion quarterback, I'd give him this match-up by default. I'd give a potted plant the win by default. Winner: Daunte Culpepper

#12. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) vs. #21. Eli Manning (NY Giants): Oh how close we came to the Packer drama match-up. This one's pretty interesting in its own right; getting your team to win over a full season obviously has to count for something. Winner: Eli Manning

#13. Matt Schaub (Houston) vs. #20. Drew Brees (New Orleans): I'm really fond of Schaub but Brees is seemingly a great guy and definitely a scary-good QB, probably the best in the league right now. Winner: Drew Brees

#14. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) vs. #19. Matt Cassel (New England): You don't know how close I came to talking myself into the upset, between Cassel's first name and underdog status and Manning's sheer over-exposure. I know a lot of people disdain Manning the same way I disdain a couple of the other big-name QBs, but not me, not just yet. The Cassel bandwagon assembled with frightening speed after he had 2-3 good games in a row. The third Google hit to Cassel's name exposes this text on his ESPN.com page: "Would the Patriots be crazy to shop Tom Brady and keep Matt Cassel?" I have to say yes to that. Winner: Peyton Manning

#15. David Garrard (Jacksonville) vs. #18. Tarvaris Jackson (Minnesota): So who's the third-best black quarterback in the NFL? (McNabb and Campbell are obviously 1 and 2, right?) Is it still Garrard by default despite his brutal 2008? Here we should also mourn the passing of Gus Frerotte's NFL career. His 2008 numbers were a lot better for fantasy football than real life. Winner: David Garrard

#16. Tyler Thigpen (Kansas City) vs. #17. Chad Pennington (Miami): Thigpen sure turned things around in a hurry! But Pennington has been underrated his whole NFL career. This one's close, I like them both, but the decision is clear. Winner: Chad Pennington

Round 2 when I get around to it.

How to Make a Game Theorist Twitch

From this fantasy football column:

"I'm OK with playing conservatively in the fantasy playoffs. The highest-upside players also can be seen as the highest-downside players, and in most cases, I'd rather take a sure 12-14 points from my No. 2 back than rather than the guy who might score 17, but also might score 7. [...] There are no exceptions. Even if you're facing a powerhouse team and see no way you can win, you still should start your best, or safest, options. Let's face it: If this juggernaut team scores like it can, you're toast anyway. You need your opponent to have an average or worse day and a few of his studs to slip up, and you want to be right there to capitalize. In other words, if he's projected to score 115 points but somehow scores 85, you want to be the tortoise to his hare and have your rock-solid 93 points in the queue. There's nothing like seeing the favorite stumble its way to 85 points, and you limp in with 67 points because your high-upside players played more like high-downside players."

(emphasis added of course)

Suppose you're playing a team that expects to score 100 points, with this arbitrary distribution:

75 points - 2% of the time
80 points - 5% of the time
85 points - 8% of the time
90 points - 10% of the time
95 points - 15% of the time
100 points - 20% of the time
105 points - 15% of the time
110 points - 10% of the time
115 points - 8% of the time
120 points - 5% of the time
125 points - 2% of the time

For a quick 10 points, in this situation would you rather have 100% chance of scoring 91 points, or a 50/50 shot at 81 points versus 101 points?

To be sure, this is all a ridiculous amount of theory (since when would you be able to quantify that, say, Donovan McNabb has a specific payout probability?), but it's the "no exceptions" part that set me off.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback

Two thoughts about this column:

1. Two and a half years ago, when Cassel was a total nobody, TMQ wrote, "This being New England, something tells you that if Cassel has to play, he'll look like a polished veteran."

He very conveniently ignores what he wrote just 3-4 weeks ago, when he speculated about whether it was time to take pity on the New England Patriots. Not that he has to be contrite, just that it's very tacky to toot his own horn for what he wrote two years ago, while flushing what he wrote a month ago down the memory hole.

2. In addition to figuring out a Division I playoff format, maybe [Barack Obama] can figure out a poll format that does not encourage bad sportsmanship in the form of running up the score.

Here's a helpful hint:
The BCS contains two types of polls -- those created by people's votes, and those created by algorithm. It's possible that some voters reward teams for running up the score; as far as I can tell, the algorithms do not. So just get rid of the coaches' and writers' polls and use only the "computer rankings." QED.

NBC Makes its First Use of Flex This Season

Week 14: Out, New England at Seattle;

I Find it Oddly Revealing...

...that particular sports leagues routinely fine any player or coach who dares to criticize the game officials.

(That is, I think what it reveals about those leagues is inadvertently damning.)

There's a happy medium, of course. (Recent Onion man-on-the-street comment: "First Martha Stewart, now Mark Cuban. It's like the SEC knows exactly who I hate." And yes I realize the second comment fits this post even better. Go see for yourself.)

Psst! College Football Has Playoffs Already!

In fact, Appalachian State has won Division 1 three years in a row. (Maybe this is pedantry, but it's pedantry with a purpose!)

As Wikipedia will tell you:
The NCAA Division I Football Championship[1] is an American college football tournament played each year to determine the champion of the NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Prior to year 2006, the game was known as the NCAA Division I-AA Football Championship. Informally, the name of the championship is often still qualified as being FCS or I-AA, to distinguish it from the Bowl Championship Series, in which selected teams of the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS, formerly Division I-A) compete. The BCS is not an NCAA sanctioned tournament or championship.

Get that? If I'm not grievously mistaken, any NCAA Division 1 FBS team could switch from the Bowl Subdivision to the Championship Subdivision if it so desired. (Pending, I guess, the expiration of any contractual obligation to the conference it belongs to.) For that matter, any NCAA Division 1 FBS conference could switch over to FCS if it so desired.

In short, as best I understand it:
1. NCAA has sanctioned a Division 1 football championship.

2. Several teams have opted not to participate in this because they have better things to do (i.e. go to Bowl games).

3. Some fans of those teams, apparently wanting to have the same cake they've already eaten, want those teams to get the bowl exposure and content for a championship crowned via playoff.

4. Earlier this month Congress and the Bush administration joined forces to solve all the other problems this country faces, thus leaving this pseudo-dilemma as (by default) worthy of Barack Obama's presidential attention.

5. Some time in the near future (this is a thought experiment masquerading as a bullet point), an eccentric billionaire will announce a bracketed single-elimination tournament scheduled for late December or early January, with invitations extended based on the same algorithmic rankings used for the non-poll portion of the current BCS. One of three things will happen:

a) the NCAA will prohibit teams from participating in this (possibly because it exceeds some cap on games played, though in this case teams could choose to schedule fewer regular season games)

b) the NCAA will neither prohibit teams from participating nor bestow any official status on the champion

c) the NCAA will officially declare the winner of this tournament to be the National Champion

Of course c) is vanishingly unlikely. So to what extent would the general public latch onto the tournament winner as, in practice, the undisputed champion? If the playing field were ideal, I'd guess more than the BCS but less than 100%. (Wild guess.) But if the playing field weren't ideal... what would be the marginal effect (on the degree to which the champion were recognized by consensus as National Champion) of (let's say) Ohio State deciding it had better things to do but the rest of the top nine teams competing in an eight-team playoff? Where's the tipping point?

All of this is a very wordy way of saying that everyone -- yes, every single person -- who agitates for current BCS teams to have a playoff, is wasting their lives in the process.

(Then again, you already knew I felt this way about football teams associated with educational institutions in the first place.)

So What's the Second Most Notorious Moment in NFL Point Spread History?

It would have to be the Bills-at-Patriots game of the late 1990s, right? Specifically, New England was driving from behind late in the 4th quarter and benefited from at least three borderline calls (two on the same play): whether Troy Brown Shawn Jefferson made a catch, whether the spot of the ball should be good enough for a 1st down, and then on the next play a phantom pass interference call in the end zone.

After New England scored, Wade Phillips(?) petulantly refused to put any Bills on the field for the point after attempt. So Adam Vinatieri just took the snap and ran into the end zone. Getting 2 instead of 1 there made the difference in New England covering.

(Game recap here)

FFL: Scoring Rank vs. Win/Loss

Ah, variance... my fantasy football teams' scoring rank (relative to the rest of the league) and win-loss record:

1st of 10 ==> 5-4
2nd of 12 ==> 5-3-1*
2nd of 10 ==> 6-3
9th** of 14 ==> 6-3

*- tied the top team (by both W/L and points scored) in Week 9; either of us would have beaten any other opponent that week. next time I have a 5-point deficit and a Monday Night player (in this case C. Portis), I'll be sure to visualize "[need] at least 6 points" instead of "[need] at least 5 points."

**- and frankly I'm surprised it's that high. Willie Parker, Marques Colston, Selvin Young, and Sammy Morris are all involved to varying degrees. But if points scored were the tiebreaker (as I recall it is) and If The Season Ended Today, this team would be the only one of the 6-3 logjam not make the six-team playoffs.

Sometimes Fantasy Football is just Attrition

My two highest-drafted running backs, league by league in no particular order:

*- Brian Westbrook, Darren McFadden

*- Steven Jackson, Willie Parker

*- Willie Parker, Selvin Young

*- Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush

Portis hasn't missed a game, but he's had the scarlet "Q" (Questionable) next to his name the past couple weeks.

In the Parker/Young league my Week 9 bench will feature Sammy Morris, Jamaal Charles, and DeAngelo Williams (admittedly just an unfortunately-timed bye), while the starting nods go to Kolby Lewis and Leon Washington.

A Berkeley Education

I couldn't write like this if I tried.

I'm so white.

My First "If The Season Ended Today" of NFL 2008

Has the AFC/NFC gap plummeted, either in conventional wisdom or reality? If I'm not mistaken New England would make the playoffs but Dallas would not. ["H2H" = "head to head"; "SOV" = "strength of victory"]

1. Titans 5-0
2. Steelers 4-1 (conference record over Bills)
3. Bills 4-1
4. Broncos 4-2
5. Colts 3-2 (conference record over Patriots)
6. Patriots 3-2 (H2H over Jets)

1. Giants 4-1
2. Buccaneers 4-2 (H2H over Falcons/Panthers; conference over Cardinals)
3. Cardinals 4-2
4. Packers 3-3 (H2H over Vikings/Bears[1])
5. Redskins 4-2 (H2H over Cowboys; conference over Panthers)
6. Panthers 4-2 (H2H over Falcons; SOV over Cowboys)

[1] Division record would produce the same result, which is relevant since Chicago has yet to play either Green Bay or Minnesota. (The only H2H result among these teams is GB over MIN week 1.)

Eh, Go Broncos

Raiders owner Al Davis just did to Lane Kiffin pretty much the same thing he did to Mike Shanahan, only with a lot less money at stake and (as far as I remember) without the gratuitously nasty press conference.

This in a nutshell is why no matter how bad the Raiders get, and no matter how many of their fans deserve better, the franchise itself richly deserves a million times worse, until the day Mr. Davis departs this mortal coil.

This* is also why I shouldn't mind so much (nor be so surprised) that Shanahan can at times be a ripe bastard. He came from the NFL equivalent of a broken home.

*- well, that and the back-to-back Super Bowl wins at the end of Elway's career

The Correct Answer Might Involve Roster Spot Scarcity

"This is a huge week for pickups because there are six teams on a bye in Week 4. The Giants, Colts, Patriots, Lions, Seahawks and Dolphins all take the week off, which means a lot of holes. For you … and your Week 4 opponent. I suggest looking very carefully at what you need and, just as importantly, what your opponent needs. Because you may not need a quarterback, but if you are playing the guy who has one of the Mannings, why not grab Trent Edwards, who has a sweet matchup at St. Louis, and have him sit on your bench instead of racking up the yards for your opponent?"
--the strangest on-topic paragraph The Talented Mr. Roto has written in awhile.

"Yeah, Trent Edwards would otherwise have been the best use of my last roster spot, but the guy I'm playing this week actually lost Tom Brady way back when, so... heck with it, I'll grab a wide receiver."

100% Football, 0% Rich Eisen

NFL.com has team by team video galleries: I highly recommend clicking any link that looks like "Sharks 17, Jets 14" (you'll get Radio calls and video highlights of the [team name] win over the [team name] in Week [n].).

I recommend AGAINST any link that looks like "NFL Game Day: Sharks vs. Jets highlights." If I had Eisen, Deion Sanders, and Steve Mariucci in the same room with just one bullet, I'd face quite the dilemma.

NFL Running Backs and Their Hairdresses

Did Steven Jackson start this or is he just the latest in a longer line?

Now we have Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson of Tennessee, and I'm sure I'm missing a few. Wouldn't you just tackle them by the back of their hair?

What's In a Name?

Of the 32 most likely starting quarterbacks in this coming weekend's NFL games, there is a 28-way tie for second-most-common first name (at one quarterback apiece).

Can you give:
1. The most common first name among current NFL starting quarterbacks?
2. All four of the starting QBs with that name?
3. At least one backup QB with that name?

(There may be others, but even if so, one is distinctly more well-known than the others. That's even more true now than it was 48 hours ago.)

NFL TV Distribution Maps

Still there. Remind me to bookmark it.

Fantasy Football Roundup

With the usual apathy caveats. 4 teams, 68 roster spots. Six Pittsburgh Steelers (five distinct, none of them Roethlisberger); four each of Bears, Broncos, Colts, and Texans; no Patriots, Chargers, or Ravens.

Players on more than one team:
Chris Johnson (RB-TEN) (3 - apparently I believe the hype)

Matt Ryan (QB-ATL)

Willie Parker (RB-PIT)
Matt Forte (RB-CHI)
Maurice Morris (RB-SEA)

Reggie Wayne (WR-IND)
Andre Johnson (WR-HOU)
Isaac Bruce (WR-SF)
Eddie Royal (WR-DEN)
James Hardy (WR-BUF)

Mason Crosby (K-GB)

The 10-team league teams feel stacked until one remembers that those are 10-team leagues. The 14-team league team has an epic WR bounty, but two of these teams have almost comical QB issues.

1. 10-team keeper-ish league with Individual Defensive Players: QB, RB(2), WR/TE(3), K, DL, LB, DB.
QB Donovan McNabb PHI
Jon Kitna DET

RB Steven Jackson STL
Willie Parker PIT
Matt Forte CHI
Chris Johnson TEN
Ricky Williams MIA
Maurice Morris SEA

WR Roddy White ATL
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
Santonio Holmes PIT
Laveranues Coles NYJ
Isaac Bruce SF
James Hardy BUF

K Phil Dawson CLE

DL Jared Allen MIN

LB DeMeco Ryans HOU

DB Adrian Wilson ARI
Bob Sanders IND

QB Matt Schaub HOU
Matt Ryan ATL

RB Brian Westbrook PHI
Darren McFadden OAK
Matt Forte CHI
Chris Johnson TEN
Justin Fargas OAK
Kevin Jones CHI

WR Reggie Wayne IND
Andre Johnson HOU
Steve Smith CAR
Ronald Curry OAK
Isaac Bruce SF
Sidney Rice MIN
Eddie Royal DEN

TE Tony Gonzalez KC
Tony Scheffler DEN

K Mason Crosby GB

D/ST Jaguars JAX

3. 14-team keeper league (almost dynastic): QB, RB(2), RB/WR, WR(2), TE, K, Team D/ST.

QB Marc Bulger STL
Matt Ryan ATL

RB Selvin Young DEN
Willie Parker PIT
Maurice Morris SEA
DeAngelo Williams CAR
Jamaal Charles KC

WR Reggie Wayne IND
Andre Johnson HOU
Marques Colston NO
Eddie Royal DEN
James Hardy BUF

TE Heath Miller PIT
Dustin Keller NYJ

K Jeff Reed PIT

D/ST Bears CHI

4. 12-team ordinary redraft league with shallow benches.

QB Peyton Manning IND
Kurt Warner ARI

RB Clinton Portis WAS
Reggie Bush NO
Chris Perry CIN
Chris Johnson TEN
Rashard Mendenhall PIT

WR Plaxico Burress NYG
Calvin Johnson DET
Joey Galloway TB
Patrick Crayton DAL

TE Donald Lee GB

K Mason Crosby GB

D/ST Seahawks SEA

Free Fantasy Sports User Experience Watch

Tentatively I think ESPN has surpassed Yahoo! again, at least for football. This is mainly for the UI but also from very tentative server load observations in a so-small-it's-meaningless sample size.

As of 2007 Yahoo! was light years ahead of ESPN for baseball, though the free live scoring gave ESPN a football edge. With apologies to any employee of any other outfit, from my limited observations no other outlet even comes close to those two.

If the NFL Were Aligned by Nickname

The Animal Conference would have Cats, Horses & Beasts, Birds, and Air & Sea; the Man-and-Superman Conference would have Big Bosses, Workers, Pillagers, and Other.

UPDATE: Richard wins the thread.

14 of the 32 NFL teams are explicitly named after animals; the Buffalo Bills would be a 15th if you treated buffaloes (as seen on their logo) as their nickname rather than just a pun on the city -- but I couldn't make this exercise work with the Bills as a "buffalo" team.

14 of the 32 NFL teams have distinctly human or super-human logos.

Of the four ambiguities, two are aerial phenomena that it makes more sense to treat as non-human; one (the aforementioned Buffalo Bills) has an animal logo but the name just as clearly pays homage to a person; and the other is a color that was adopted because of the owner's last name.

That there are five birds (not four) makes this less elegant than it would have been, but life goes on. And although you might think the Native America logos belong together, maybe we're better off categorizing them by their nature so that neither of them has to be focused on ethnic caricature.

Without further ado:

ANIMAL CONFERENCE
CATS
Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars

HORSES & BEASTS
Chicago Bears
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
St. Louis Rams

BIRDS
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles

AIR & SEA
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks

MAN & SUPERMAN CONFERENCE
BIG BOSSES
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans

WORKERS
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers

PILLAGERS
Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins

OTHER
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
New England Patriots

Stephen J. Dubner Asks, Football Outsiders Answers

"Will some N.F.L. team make a run at Usain Bolt as a wide receiver? "
--Freakonomics Blog

"A guy like Bolt, no matter how impressive he was on that track … you’d have to take everything down to basic fundamentals. Has he even seen a football game? Can he catch a ball standing still, never mind on the run? And of course, it’s like Mike Tyson used to say: ‘Everyone has a plan until they get hit.’ What happens when he’s trying to judge ball flight on a punt and he has guys bearing down on him? Forget about trying to catch a ball on a 7 or 9 route with a safety on him. That’s when your straight-line speed tends to go out the window unless you know what you’re doing."
--ex-scout Doug Marino, quoted by Doug Ferrar at Football Outsiders. Marino concludes:

“Honestly, I’d say that Usain Bolt’s chances of playing in the NFL would be about as good as yours or mine.”

Serendipity, FFL Style

My friend Aaron invited me to join his fantasy football league this year, drafting in 15 minutes. I had barely looked at the league until just now, where I come to find:

1. I've got the #2 pick
2. It's a Points Per Reception League

(So yeah, both of my fantasy football blog posts this month have been about the same player, assuming the #1 pick goes to LaDainian Tomlinson as it should.)

Vote for Cooch?

Boston Sports Media Watch tosses out names, almost at random, for who should become the Boston Herald's new Patriots' beat writer.

I voted for Mr. Couture of course.

Do You Care Too Much About Fantasy Football: A Lithmus Test

"Many of us are stuck in abusive fantasy relationships with Brian Westbrook. That work stoppage at the one yard-line in Week 15 last year was devastatingly cruel.

Nonetheless, he's fourth in the Yahoo! experts running back ranks, [...]"
--Andy Behrens, Yahoo! Sports

Even before the game-clinching incident in question, Westbrook had been my favorite active NFL player, almost entirely for fantasy football reasons. But my esteem for him actually went way up after he found a really clever way to give up personal glory to make sure his team won (instead of possibly allowing a touchdown-onside-kick-touchdown sequence).

(Disclosure: Yes, I lost a semifinal game where his scoring a touchdown would have caused me to win; no, no money was at stake.)

The Three Best Deadspin Links of the Post-Leitch Era

If a Korean pop star is attractive enough, she doesn't necessarily need to wear pants to throw out the first pitch at a baseball game there.

Sacha Baron Cohen strikes again.

Barack Obama's acceptance speech will be the same night that college football kicks off. Brilliant scheduling by whichever Democratic party planner didn't catch that.

STOP FEEDING THIS MAN'S INSATIABLE NARCISSISM

For the love of all that's good about the sports section (is there any?), stop wasting time and space on stories like this.

(The flip side might be that it's not his fault he answered a stupid question honestly. But some questions are so stupid that public figures leave us all a little bit worse off by bothering to give the obvious answer.)

In Tribute to Two Great Orators

Which William F. Buckley phrase would sound the most jarring as enunciated by Myron Cope? (Or vice versa.)

With Apologies to The Beasties Boys

Yo, Professor: What's a five-letter word for a bust QB and even-bigger-bust baseball prospect who's in the process of failing at life?

Why I think it's...

Two Great Sentences About Two Coaches

"He was a man who demanded discipline while often exhibiting none himself."
--Tim Keown on Bobby Knight

"Not everyone can take a step back and say, 'Wow, I’m an a**hole and it is hurting my ability to get the most from my employees. I need to change.' — and then actually change, and succeed."
--Aaron Schatz on Tom Coughlin (obscenity obfuscation in original)

The Best Super Bowl Ads Were Among the Last

And the best one of all, I didn't even know existed until today (when did it air?).

5. The Dalmatian trains the Clydesdale. I make no apologies about enjoying this sap.

4. Charles Barkley wears out his welcome. A great twist on a running ad theme.

3. Giant carrier pigeons.

2. Will Farrell as an old-time basketball player pitchman

1. Underdog vs. Stewie

(I was also partial to the ad with Bill Frist and James Carville, shameless whores though they may be. Maybe this is knee-jerk brand loyalty but weren't both of those ads light years ahead of either the "Night at the Roxbury" tribute or the "let's keep hitting Justin Timberlake in the crotch"?)

19? 18!

The title of this post wouldn't necessarily be the most creative taunt, but it popped into my head while reading the last paragraph or two of this column.

(The "things a New York fan would say to taunt a Boston fan" convergence should be obvious enough.)

Well That Changes Everything

As you know, every January when each NFL team's opponent list becomes known, I try to find an easy way to devise a plausible full schedule (Weeks 1-17) for the next season, where plausibility includes which games are on national TV.

(Among other things this involves avoiding any TV-rule impossibilities or stadium impossibilities with the Giants/Jets or Raiders/49ers. Also, I say no team should play three straight road games or three straight home games, even though the NFL itself has been very lax about that of late.)

The one that I posted just over a week ago assumed that New England would win the Super Bowl. In principle the fix is easy: in Week 1 move PIT@NE from Thursday (season opener) to Sunday night, IND@CLE from Sunday night to Monday night, SEA@NYG from Monday night to Thursday. Then again maybe that creates some cascade effect of things being not quite as good as they could be.

Anyway, I'd assumed all this time that New England would need a Week 1 home game against a TV-worthy opponent. If that's not the case, then the schedule can easily be improved. (And even factor in that we already know that San Diego vs. New Orleans will be in England, whichever week it was announced to be.) New and improved weeks 1 and 2 after the jump, as worked out in my head in the car on the way to work.

(Don't expect anything further. The next steps would be some very easy Sudoku-style work, but then annoying futzing with bye weeks (since I still haven't found an elegant way to work that out), and even more annoying futzing with which of a given week's games belong on national TV.)

(CBS/Fox games in roughly descending order of what % of the U.S. see them)

Week 1 (Fox doubleheader)
NBC Thursday
Dallas at NY Giants
CBS early games
Cleveland at Buffalo
Houston at Pittsburgh
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Kansas City
Oakland at Baltimore
Miami at St. Louis
Fox early games
Detroit at Green Bay
Arizona at NY Jets
Atlanta at Minnesota
(no CBS late games because of U.S. Open tennis, as every NFL Week 1)
Fox late games
Philadelphia at Washington
Chicago at Carolina
New Orleans at Denver
NBC Sunday
New England at Indianapolis
ESPN Monday
San Diego at Tampa Bay
Seattle at San Francisco

Week 2 (CBS doubleheader)
Fox early games
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Washington at Dallas
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Minnesota at Chicago
San Francisco at Miami
CBS early games
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Baltimore at Cleveland
Denver at Atlanta
Cincinnati at Houston
Fox late games
Carolina at San Diego
St. Louis at Arizona
CBS late games
Buffalo at New England
NY Jets at Seattle
Kansas City at Oakland
NBC Sunday
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
ESPN Monday
Green Bay at New Orleans

Ads

Bud Light "ability to breathe fire" + allergic to cats: Not bad. Pretty much what Bud Light's first ad should be, but no better. B

Audi's takeoff on The Godfather: Terrible waste of money. Gratuitous screaming = turnoff. I wonder how many people won't even get the reference. F

SalesGenie: I liked it. Go animated Ramesh! B+

Pepsi Max: They had nothing better to do than dig up that song from A Night at the Roxbury? F.

Bud Light wine & cheese. Pretty clever. B+

Shoe commercial: I'm not the target audience. Nothing about it offended me, nor interested me. C.

Bridgestone: WHAT THE HELL IS UP THE SCREAMING in this year's ads??? F.

Doritos: Guitar playing woman. That was the best the user-submitters came up with? D-.

Movie trailer: It is what trailers should be. Movie loks like mindless pleasure. B-

Derek Jeter: It is what celebrity endorsements should be. B+

GoDaddy: Meh. (I didn't bother with the web version.) B

No idea what that fourth ad was. (Incomplete.)

FedEx: gigantic carrier pigeons! A

Cars.com: wtf? C-

Tide: nice premise. Does gibberish count as screaming? Wrong year for this ad I guess. B

Bud: Dalmatian trains Clydesdale. Predictable and sappy but it was what I wanted to see. A-

Movie trailer: Iron Man looks dumber than the previously trailed movie. C-

Toyota badgers: A bit too over the top. B

Leatherheads. Not bad. Funny. B+

Garmin Napoleon. Clever, but the exposition took too long. At least we're in a run of non-terrible ads. B.

Follow your heart: no thank you. C

Dancing lizards: took way too long to identify the product. C+.

Anti-drug PSA. no thank you. But not bad as anti-drug PSAs go. C+.

SUV: meh. C

Bud Light foreigners: F with a vengeance.

Prince Caspian: was what it was. B-

Planters: vomit-inducing. C-

Charles Barkley's phone company: really grew on us! A

Pepsi: now we're down to crotch shots? D-

Doritos' big mouse: not bad. B+

Not the Actual NFL 2008 Schedule

Nonetheless, as far as I can tell this would be a plausible 2008 schedule, barring any mistypes or overlooks.

Look at the Grid-for-TV-Games worksheet, find your favorite team, and read across. There's a legend below the grid; basically national TV games are in cells with dark background colors, thus white text. Otherwise white, light yellow, and yellow are (all times Eastern) Sunday 1 p.m., Sunday 4:05, and Sunday 4:15 respectively.

If you're too lazy even to follow the link, in my world NBC would get:
Thursday opener: Pittsburgh at New England
1. Indianapolis at Cleveland
2. NY Giants at Philadelphia
3. Tampa Bay at Dallas
4. Indianapolis at Jacksonville
5. San Diego at Pittsburgh
6. Dallas at NY Giants
7. Chicago at Green Bay
8. nothing (World Series)
9. Jacksonville at Tenessee
10. Baltimore at Cleveland Green Bay at Minnesota*
(flex scheduling begins, last seven games tentative placeholders)
11. New England at Indianapolis
12. Seattle at Tampa Bay
13. Minnesota at Tennessee
14. Dallas at Washington
15. Detroit at Green Bay
16. New England at Seattle
17. Cleveland at Pittsburgh

*- accidentally transposed the SNF and MNF color coding that week. I'd fix it on the file available on-line but life is too short

Thanksgiving = JAX@DET (CBS), PHI@DAL (Fox), CIN@CLE (NFLN).

International games = Houston vs. Jacksonville @ London (Week 6, CBS 1p.m. Eastern), Miami vs. Buffalo at Toronto (Week 13, ESPN Monday)

Al Davis's Nemesis Taught Him Well

Suppose you owned a football team and had a coach you wanted to fire, but you also wanted to weasel out of paying him the two years remaining on his contract.

You could just fire him anyway and renege on the contract, figuring that even if he sues he'll have a hard time collection. But why make a sworn enemy for life?

Instead, making a guy choose between his contractually obligated money and his dignity is a stroke of genius. Unless he decides to hold you to the money, perhaps on the theory that he's still young and has plenty of time to get his dignity back.

The Oakland Raiders: Commitment to Excellence taunting zoo animals but failing to get out of the way.

What's The Latest You've Ever Arrived To An Internet Meme?

If it weren't for a Jeff Feagles reference in this chat I would have been completely oblivious to this Fox camera gaffe (warning: search term is profane) from OVER A YEAR AGO.

(This was the one game I missed out of those four particular playoff games that weekend, as Julia's high school friends got together at a sushi restaurant for a very belated holiday gift swap.)

I wonder if that will turn out to have been Dick Stockton's last call of an NFL playoff game.

The Most Dramatic Split Second in Sports

Loose ball at midfield, with two minutes left in a tie game whose winner goes to Super Bowl.

The Legend of Billy Volek

Now only partly related to fantasy football.

Football Trivia

I learned this from Wikipedia just now; for all I know you learned it on TV today.

What did the college careers of LaDainian Tomlinson, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberger have in common?

I Refuse to Buy Various Brands of Car, Cell Phone, or Shipping Outlet

...until they greatly improve (at least de-suck) their ads.

Incidentally, it does me no end of amusement that the line "Can I afford this?" in iPhone ads is keyed to a visual of Google's stock history.

Various Football Parlor Game Notes

Fantasy football final results: 2nd of 10, 3rd of 12, 5th of 10, missed the (6-team) playoffs in a 14-team league. Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and Randy Moss played well enough Week 17 denied me the cheap ESPN prize schwag.

One "Salary Cap Football" league: Did terribly.

Leading a 32-team league in college football pick 'em; will win that league unless Bowling Green beats Tulsa and LSU beats Ohio State.

Informal playoff picks (winner only - spread is irrelevant) I was the only one of our quartet to pick NYG over TB. (One went with all favorites, the other two went all home teams.) Eli is still a work in progress.

NFL 2008 Schedule Notes

You may have already heard this (I expect someone to start complaining about it in his on-line sports column soon) but the Patriots have four West Coast road games in 2008. This is just catching up: For the pre-set part of each team's schedule (14 games out of 16), New England hadn't been given "at Oakland / at San Diego" since 2002, and hadn't gotten "at San Francisco / at Seattle" since even earlier.

(As you either already realized or didn't care about: For the pre-set games, at least whether a given game is at home or on the road, the first two and last two teams in each division (alphabetical by place name) are basically travel partners. This adds more variance than strictly necessary to road game travel length, since "at Oakland / at San Diego" is a lot further for an East Coast team to go than "at Denver / at Kansas City," which in turn is further than not having any AFC West road games at all.)

In other news, to be elaborated on either when you care or when I get around to making a clear concise explanation, an NFL schedule is sort of like a Sudoku variant (at the level of abstraction where people like Jason Z. compete) -- if, by "schedule," you're content to mean "eight pairs of slates, within which each team has a road game and a home game, that you can then arrange in the order that suits you."

A half-decent explanation of this is after the fold, including why my fairly straightforward way to get those eight-pairs-of-slates actually has 128 solutions (if you don't n-tuple count some permutations) most years, but 64 this year.

Off-the-cuff first draft of how to do something pretty neat (at least if you've read this far you'd probably think it's neat):

NOTE: Unless/until the NFL votes to extend the current system, this works only through 2009. 2010 onward all bets are off.

NOTE 2: This will be gobbledygook unless you're playing along as we go. If I were less lazy I'd attach screen shots.

1. Learn which teams have which opponents in the season you care about. Most sports outlets publish this right after Week 17 of the previous season, but you can also figure it out through a combination of this site and the final standings. Paste whatever you need to paste into a convenient reference source.

2. Make an 8-by-4 grid based on NFL divisions and previous season order of finish. Group pairs of divisions together, specifically the two divisions in the same conference whose teams all play each other. (Examples: 2008 AFC East vs. AFC West; 2007 AFC East vs. AFC North.)

Now you have a coloring puzzle: Divide each group of 8 into two groups of 4, such that each group has one team per ordinal standings rank but at most one team per travel partnership (travel partnership = e.g. "Buffalo and Miami" or "Oakland and San Diego"). There will always be at least one way to do this, sometimes two.

3. Make a 32-by-16 grid for NFL teams and schedule weeks. (Group the teams by division.) For clarity, thicken the borders so that this resembles an 8-by-8 grid of 4-by-2 grids.

4. Pick an arbitrary color (let's say blue) and an arbitrary conference (let's say AFC). Over the first four pairs of weeks, shade teams in such a way that:

A. Each team has shaded cells for two pairs of weeks (one pair among the first four, one pair among the next four)

B. In a given week, the group of eight teams with shaded cells amounts to two of the groups from step 2. (For example: {BUF, NE, CIN, PIT, JAX, TEN, KC, OAK}.) [If you already understand what we're trying to accomplish, you'll already notice that because of the 2007 NFC standings, the 2008 NFC will need a slight twist, e.g. {DAL, PHI, MIN, DET, CAR, NO, SEA, STL}. Do you see why?]

C. For a two-week period in which eight particular teams are shaded, in one of those weeks those teams will all play division games; in the other, they'll all play games they don't have in common with the rest of their division. (e.g. Pit at NE, Buf at Jax, Hou at Oak, KC at Cin)

D. In other words, the cells with this particular color take care of all the non-common games (two per team), as well as home-and-home for one division rival per team.

5. More generally, in each two-week section there will be five groups of teams (color-code them for your convenience!).

A. 8-team group, as mentioned in step 4

B. 4-team group, all in the same conference as group A, who play intra-conference games against each other. (Example: if the 8 specific teams mentioned above are already group A, then this could be {Ind @ Cle, Ten @ Bal; Bal @ Ind, Cle @ Ten}. Or it could be {Den @ NYJ, SD @ Mia; Mia @ Den, NYJ @ SD}.)

C. 4-team group, some entire division whose non-conference opponents are all in the same division as two of the teams from group B. These teams will all have division opponents two straight weeks, specifically the teams they DON'T face when they're part of "Group A" themselves. Note: You can't actually fill in who plays whom yet. That is, you can't immediately decide that this is "Dal @ Was; NYG @ Dal" rather than "Dal @ NYG; Was @ Dal."

D. 6-team group: two leftover teams (same division) from the same conference as Group A, plus the entire division that faces those two teams in non-conference games. (Example: {Denver, San Diego, AFC South}.) The former two teams will have non-conference games each week, one against the "first half" of the other division (alpha by place name) and one against the "second half." That will leave gaps filled by division games so that all six teams have a home game and a road game. (Example: {Den @ Car, Atl @ SD, TB @ NO; NO @ Den, SD @ TB, Car @ Atl) Note: Same caveat as for part C.

E. 10-team group: Sort of like Group D, except that in the division where half the alphabet has non-conference games, the other half will have conference [non-division] games instead of just facing each other.

6. You'll want to color-code this so that each team is either on the little end of "Group D" exactly once, or on the little end of "Group E" exactly once. To accomplish this, despite everything explained in step 5, you probably just want to look at whichever conference doesn't have "Group A" teams for a given two-week slate, and think of what the different divisions are doing.

(One division is all in-house; one has non-conference games + division games; one has non-conference games + non-division games; one has non-division games + division games.)

At first it would be tempting to claim that there are 24 ways (4!) to arrange the color-coding for those divisions in those weeks, but then you should immediately notice why it's really just 8.

7. As you might notice, opponent assignment and home-road considerations for Group A and Group B are independent of any other group. But opponent assignment and home-road for Groups C-E all depend on each other. In fact as it turns out, once you have the color coding set, you're down to two flavors. You can completely solve for either of those flavors by starting with a "Group C" color (entire division with two weeks in a row in-house) and making a binary choice. (e.g. the aforementioned "Dal @ Was; NYG @ Dal" versus "Dal @ NYG; Was @ Dal.")

Getting from these 8 pairs of slates to a 17-week actual schedule is an exercise for the reader, mainly because there's no elegant way to space things out for byes. (I'd turn one slate in to Weeks 1-2; then 3-4, 5+7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-17. Then group a few games each from weeks 3-5, 7-10 to fabricate Week 6. But there's no elegant algorithm for this.)

Kneel to Win! Fallacy of the Day

The team that has led the NFL in passing yards has never won the Super Bowl.

Well golly gee, I wonder why. (Hint: It has nothing to do with the effect of high passing yardage, but rather the main cause.)

(More information about the revolutionary "Kneel to Win!" theory. Anyone interested in correct use of sports statistics should take the lessons of this article to heart.)

Plaxico

Week 17 fantasy football is so degenerate, but ESPN does what it does. With some sort of cheap ESPN swag** at stake (trophy? T-shirt? I still haven't bothered to look up exactly what), would you start Plaxico Burress (risking his leg and the coach's decision to save him for the playoffs) or hit the waiver wire*?

[*- There's no middle ground because of the L. Coles injury and my certainty that neither J. Galloway nor D. Branch will actually play much if at all. And having already picked up I. Bruce, that sentence should end "hit the waiver wire further."]

**- It says here To be eligible for League Winner prizes teams must be in a Prize-eligible league. The top overall team ranked the highest in its fantasy football league at the end of the season will have the choice of a Fantasy Football 2007 League Champion T-Shirt, a Fantasy Football 2007 League Champion Mini Banner or an NFL Bobblehead. Approximate Retail Value ("ARV"): $15 per League Winner (including shipping).

I guess I'd take the bobblehead. Blah.

Worst Deadspin Thread, Bar None

ESPN's Featured Comment of the Day is so frequently stupid, inane, or both, that Deadspin rightly set up a recurring feature to highlight some of those comments. That said:

"I think the Pats still only have a 50 percent chance of winning it all."

You may think that's a little low (I'd put them at 65%, as in a 90% chance of winning any given game from here on out -- your mileage may vary) but my goodness, the misplaced vitriol among Deadspin commenters made me think I'd stumbled onto AOL, or Foxsports.com, or even ESPN itself.

Nice work guys. Good luck ever being taken seriously by people who didn't already.

What's on TV Saturday Night?

According to TV.yahoo.com local listings for Alameda, CA, our local stations get:

NBC = News from 5 to 6:30, Tech Now! at 6:30, Access Hollywood at 7, two hours of Dateline NBC at 8

CBS = This Old House at 5, news until 7, Without A Trace at 7, then the movie Good Night and Good Luck

FOX = Half-hour shows promoting the Raiders and 49ers from 5 to 6, news at 6, two syndicated Friends, a 7:30 Seinfeld, then back-to-back Cops at 8

ABC = News until 6:30, At the Movies, Jeopardy!, Wheel, then four consecutive reruns of Samantha Who?

Two of those four are out of date.

NBC Week 17

I presume they have until tomorrow to announce it, but you'd think the final Sunday night game of the regular season would have to be Tennessee at Indianapolis, since that game singlehandedly decides the final AFC playoff spot (and on the other side of the ball features the best team available to NBC).

Teams' own markets aside, I presume Fox gives us Dallas at Washington followed by Minnesota at Denver (both games for the final NFC playoff spot), while CBS gives us the jousting for #3 seed (Pittsburgh at Baltimore, then San Diego at Oakland).

Hyperbole of the Day

I don't mean to speak ill of the dead, but "the prototype free safety for the new millennium?

The FSBD NFL Top 32: Week 16

I think it's safe to say the Redskins hold on. Your mileage may vary.

Without consulting any media sources, here's what I think are the relevant tiebreaks, according to these instructions and these standings:

AFC
Patriots and Colts clinched the #1 and #2 (respectively). For the #3 and #4, Chargers advantage over Steelers by conference record. (PIT clinches the division over CLE on head-to-head.) Jaguars clinched the #5. If both teams won, Titans over Browns for the #6 based on common opponents (the difference-maker is the Raiders). [But if both teams lost Week 17, Cleveland would have a better conference record.]

NFC
Cowboys and Packers clinched the #1 and #2 (respectively). Seahawks and Buccaneers clinched the #3 and #4 (respectively). [Ties on either tier would be broken by head-to-head.] Giants clinch the #5 should the Vikings' loss hold up.

Redskins would get the #6 with a 9-7 record; Vikings would get it if they win Week 17 and Washington loses.

If PHI and WAS were both 8-8, Redskins would win the tiebreak (eliminating Philly): head-to-head split, both 2-4 in conference and 7-7 vs. common opponents, but Washington would be 6-6 in conference.

If DET and MIN were both 8-8, Lions would win the tiebreak (eliminating Minnesota), because of a better conference record.

If there were a big dogpile at 8-8: Redskins would have head-to-head sweep over [Lions or Vikings] and Cardinals; however, Saints would win a multi-team tiebreak because of conference record.

32. Atlanta (3-12) (Last week: 32) Faint signs of life. (Remaining game: vs. Seattle)

31. Miami (1-14) (Last week: 31) I'd still take the Dolphins over the Falcons at a neutral site. (We didn't have access to the New England game: Did the Patriots just let up or did Miami hold down the score?) (Remaining game: vs. Cincinnati)

30. St. Louis (3-12) (Last week: 30) Just bad (1 of 5). (Remaining game: at Arizona)

29. NY Jets (3-12) (Last week: 29) Just bad (2 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. Kansas City)

28. Baltimore (4-11) (Last week: 27) Just bad (3 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. Pittsburgh)

27. Kansas City (4-11) (Last week: 26) Just bad (4 of 5). (Remaining game: at NY Jets)

26. Oakland (4-11) (Last week: 24) Just bad (5 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. San Diego)

25. San Francisco (5-10) (Last week: 28) Two in a row. Just like when they started the year 2-0! (Remaining game: at Cleveland)

24. Carolina (6-9) (Last week: 23) Steve Smith sighting! (Remaining game: at Tampa Bay)

23. Cincinnati (6-9) (Last week: 25) Spoilers: That's how you do it. (Remaining game: at Miami)

22. Denver (6-8) (Last week: 21) TBA (Remaining game: vs. Minnesota)

21. Arizona (7-8) (Last week: 20) Eked out a home win against a terrible opponent (1 of 2) (Remaining game: vs. St. Louis)

20. Detroit (7-8) (Last week: 19) Eked out a home win against a terrible opponent (2 of 2) (Remaining game: at Green Bay)

19. Chicago (6-9) (Last week: 22) Responsible for 2/3 of the Packers' losses this year. (Remaining game: vs. New Orleans)

18. Minnesota (8-6) (Last week: 15) Rotten egg alert. (Remaining game: at Denver)

17. New Orleans (7-8) (Last week: 18) What a squandered opportunity! Despite the loss, I'd take them over any of the teams below them. (Remaining game: at Chicago)

16. Houston (7-8) (Last week: 17) Winless in their division but 7-3 outside the AFC South. (The division itself is a combined 30-10 against other divisions.) (Remaining game: vs. Jacksonville)

15. Buffalo (7-8) (Last week: 13) Spoilers: You're doing it wrong. (Remaining game: at Philadelphia)

14. Philadelphia (7-8) (Last week: 14) What might have been. (Remaining game: vs. Buffalo)

13. Washington (7-7) (Last week: 16) Oh hi! Somebody really wanted that playoff spot. In with a win (vs. Dallas). (Remaining game: vs. Dallas)

12. Tennessee (9-6) (Last week: 11) This is the time of year for http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures . Tennessee and Cleveland did not face each other. Both would be 7-5 in conference if they win next week. (If both lose, the Browns get the playoff spot.) As for common opponents, Cincinnati beat TEN and CLE at home (but lost to CLE on the road). TEN swept Houston; CLE beat Houston at home. Oakland won vs. CLE but lost at TEN. Both teams beat the Jets. I think that means Tennessee is in with a win (at IND). (Remaining game: at Indianapolis)

11. Cleveland (9-6) (Last week: 8) As The Onion reminded us (http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/browns_reject_concept_of), everything is chaos. (Remaining game: vs. San Francisco)

10. Tampa Bay (9-6) (Last week: 9) For what it's worth: 6-1 at home (Jacksonville); 3-5 on the road (Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans) (Remaining game: vs. Carolina)

9. Seattle (10-5) (Last week: 12) For what it's worth: 7-1 at home (New Orleans), 3-4 on the road (San Francisco, St. Louis, Philadelphia) (Remaining game: at Atlanta)

8. NY Giants (10-5) (Last week: 10) Big road comeback in lousy weather? It has to be Eli Manning. (Remaining game: vs. New England)

7. Pittsburgh (10-5) (Last week: 7) Should be downgraded a bit for losing Willie Parker, but that just means a vast gulf between seventh and eighth is instead close. (Remaining game: at Baltimore)

6. San Diego (9-5) (Last week: 6) Chad point out that the "special Christmas Eve time" for Monday's game was only a half hour removed from normal. (Remaining game: at Oakland)

5. Jacksonville (11-4) (Last week: 5) Didn't bother to watch. Did almost start both Fred Taylor and MJD in the same fantasy consolation (3rd place) game. (Remaining game: at Houston)

4. Green Bay (12-3) (Last week: 3) Rumor has it Favre is mortal. The conventional wisdom about him shows a freakish amount of variance. (Remaining game: vs. Detroit)

3. Dallas (13-2) (Last week: 4) I would root for New England in a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl. Just saying. (Remaining game: at Washington)

2. Indianapolis (13-2) (Last week: 2) They sometimes toy with weaker opponents. (Remaining game: vs. Tennessee)

1. New England (15-0) (Last week: 1) What are the odds they do it? Maybe less than you think. They have to win their next four, and for example .95 to the 4th is about .81. (Remaining game: at NY Giants)

Paint Your Favorite Team's Color Scheme

So I had a long fantasy football related post that I ditched because it bored even me. But then I found this site through an ESPN.com banner ad.

I'm intrigued that Major League Baseball isn't part of this. I'm agape at the Virginia Tech color scheme (as seen on the slide show when I first clicked the link).

Anyway, this is good time-wasting fun. I've decorated several bathrooms in Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars glory.

The LOLCat Effect

(More formally, the 60 point Impact font, white text with borders effect.)

I've started to notice that when it comes to NFL uniforms, I like color jerseys with white numbers a lot more than white jerseys with color numbers.

If you go to ESPN.com right now (as I post this) and click on "NFL" or "NFL2 II" in the scrolling headline widget, you'll see good examples (of what I do like) from both the Steelers and Jaguars.

Dubious Dependent Clause of the Day

"While NFL fans eagerly await today's Pro Bowl release [...]"
--front page of ESPN.com

Now, I'm not a real football fan, but do even the die-hards actually care about this? I can't imagine a major-sport sporting event that matters less to fans of that sport. Even preseason games get more attention because at least they affect (and reflect on) the future of a given fan's favorite team.

The key point here is that last word: I think football fans are more team-focused (rather than player-focused) than basketball, baseball, or even hockey fans. The only ones who are player-focused are fantasy football geeks, and none of them (us) will care about the Pro Bowl for blindingly obvious reasons.

Are You Ready For a Gratuitous Fantasy Football Final Preview?

(Four teams: One didn't make the six-team playoffs in a 14-team league; one lost the quarterfinal; one lost the semifinal; one is alive and well. The team still alive is my ESPN public "plus league" freebie: The final is spread out over Weeks 16-17. The winner gets a plastic trophy, or T-shirt, or some such tchotchke.)

Sit Ubu Sit, Good Dog (hey, I just learned why someone in the draft chat thought this was a Spin City reference: wow that makes me feel old) vs. kalamazoo thunder iv:

QUARTERBACKS: I think I'll keep a tandem going with Roethlisberger (at St. Louis) Week 16 but Favre (vs. Detroit) Week 17. He'll probably start Carson Palmer twice (vs. Cleveland, at Miami) and leave Jay Cutler on the bench. Advantage: me (unless both of my QBs get rested Week 17).

KICKER: Unless one of us grabs a free agent it's Kris Brown vs. Nick Folk. Advantage: him.

DEFENSE: For me, Buccaneers at San Francisco and vs. Carolina. For him, Ravens or Colts (between the Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, and Titans, he's not getting any great match-up) or a free agent pickup. Advantage: me.

TIGHT END: Antonio Gates vs. Tony Gonzalez. (He could start Dallas Clark, but that doesn't change his expected value much.) Advantage: me.

RB1: Brian Westbrook vs. LaDainian Tomlinson. Advantage: him (unless Tomlinson gets a lot of Week 17 rest).

RB2: Clinton Portis vs. Earnest Graham. Advantage: him (given who Washington and Tampa Bay face)

WR1: Plaxico vs. Randy Moss. He made a great trade to pick up Moss at the last minute, for Kenny Watson and Fred Taylor and some second-tier WR. Advantage: him

WR2: Joey Galloway vs. Chad Johnson. Advantage: him.

Flex: Jamal Lewis vs. Kolby Smith. (He started Bobby Engram over Smith in Week 15; not what I would have done.) Advantage: me

RB/WR bench options: In descending order of expected utility I have Aaron Stecker, Warrick Dunn, Jesse Chatman, Correll Buckhalter, Deion Branch, and L. Coles (unless that training table accident ended his season). He has no other RB but his bench WR include Engram, Derrick Mason, Donte' Stallworth, and some guy who used to be Marvin Harrison. Advantage: me for RB, him for WR

Overall I think his team is better (especially after the Moss trade) but mine is more reliable.

He's Still My Favorite NFL Player

Lost a fantasy football semifinal by six points this weekend.

The best player on the team decided (in real life of course) to go down at the one yard line and guarantee that his team would win, rather than padding his personal stats. He made exactly the right decision.

I spent two minutes trying to find a page that would explain how Yahoo! breaks fantasy football playoff ties. The only thing I came across was a message board(!) with the dubious claim that the first tiebreak was touchdowns. (We had five touchdowns apiece.)

The FSBD Top 32: Week 15

Who in their right mind decided that a team should play on Thursday but then not again until Monday?

32. Atlanta (3-11) (Last week: 31) Thanks to Lawyer Milloy and Deadspin, every time I think of the Mitchell Report I'll think of "COWARD!" in red pen. (Remaining games: at Arizona, vs. Seattle)

31. Miami (1-13) (Last week: 32) Not only is the albatross dead, but I'm more than 70% sure the Dolphins would beat the Falcons at a neutral site in Week 16. (Remaining games: at New England, vs. Cincinnati)

30. St. Louis (3-11) (Last week: 29) In fantasy (all that matters in St. Louis anymore), I would have expected more from Favre and less from S. Jackson. (Remaining games: vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)

29. NY Jets (3-11) (Last week: 28) They didn't embarrass themselves. But the weather had a lot to do with that. (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)

28. San Francisco (4-10) (Last week: 30) Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill. Don't confuse him with Canada's own Shawn Hill (RHP-WAS). (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)

27. Baltimore (4-10) (Last week: 24) That 18-yard field goal attempt (1st and goal from the 1, down 3, 12 seconds left) was beyond cowardly. But hey, remember when they almost beat New England? (Remaining games: at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)

26. Kansas City (4-10) (Last week: 26) It's not even that they lost a blah game at home, but that this particular blah loss wasn't at all surprising. (Remaining games: at Detroit, at NY Jets)

25. Cincinnati (5-9) (Last week: 23) This clinches the Bengals' first losing season under Marvin Lewis. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at Miami)

24. Oakland (4-10) (Last week: 25) Your 2007 Raiders: road blowouts and home losses by a touchdown. (Remaining games: at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)

23. Carolina (6-8) (Last week: 27) Ladies and gentlemen, Matt Moore. (Remaining games: vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)

22. Chicago (5-8) (Last week: 22) TBA. Don't expect much. (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)

21. Denver (6-8) (Last week: 20) If the two late 1990s Super Bowls earned them a ten-year honeymoon then 2008 would mark Year 10. (Remaining games: at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)

20. Arizona (6-8) (Last week: 21) I learned two things from the NFL.com video highlights: Kurt Warner and a coach shouted at each other, and the Cardinals have UGLY road uniforms. (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)

19. Detroit (6-8) (Last week: 15) The first 59 minutes, 30 seconds of their 2007 highlight video will get them through Week 9. (Remaining games: vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)

18. New Orleans (7-7) (Last week: 19) Of the 20 teams who would NOT make the playoffs if the season ended after Sunday's games, this is the team most likely to sneak in. (Remaining games: vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)

17. Houston (7-7) (Last week: 16) Probably their last win this year, but 7-9 is a big step up for this franchise. (Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)

16. Washington (7-7) (Last week: 18) Guess NBC knew what they were doing when they scheduled the Redskins for two straight late-season Sunday night games. (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)

15. Minnesota (7-6) (Last week: 14) TBA. Ranked below the Eagles for now but remember they lost to Philly at home in Week 8. (Remaining games: vs. Washington, at Denver)

14. Philadelphia (6-8) (Last week: 17) See, this what they've been capable of all along. (Not to get all dogmatic about it.) (Remaining games: at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)

13. Buffalo (7-7) (Last week: 13) You know it's a blizzard when a team with a decent offense can't score against Cleveland. (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)

12. Seattle (9-5) (Last week: 8) That doesn't inspire confidence that this team is capable of winning a playoff road game. (Remaining games: vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)

11. Tennessee (8-6) (Last week: 12) Likely to be football's best non-playoff team. Incidentally, the Week 17 at Colts is a very good NBC flex game candidate. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)

10. NY Giants (9-5) (Last week: 9) Swirling winds 1, passing game 0. Not the best way to inspire home crowd confidence in Eli? (Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs. New England)

9. Tampa Bay (9-5) (Last week: 11) Don't read too much into the blowout, considering the opponent. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)

8. Cleveland (9-5) (Last week: 10) They're 9-3 in games not against the Steelers. And thanks to their conference record (and Tennessee's), if I'm not mistaken they're one victory away from clinching the last AFC playoff spot. (Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)

7. Pittsburgh (9-5) (Last week: 6) Panic is premature but that's two straight losses. (And they're only 7-5 when not playing Cleveland.) (Remaining games: at St. Louis, at Baltimore)

6. San Diego (9-5) (Last week: 7) Peaking at the right time. (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Oakland)

5. Jacksonville (10-4) (Last week: 5) There could easily be a rematch in three weeks. (Hmm: Compare a playoff road game at Pittsburgh to one at San Diego: Did the Jaguars really come out ahead here?) (Remaining games: vs. Oakland, at Houston)

4. Dallas (12-2) (Last week: 3) King Kaufman called this: "Cowboys cruising, Eagles done, and whoops! Random stumble for the Cowboys. Nothing to worry about." (Remaining games: at Carolina, at Washington)

3. Green Bay (12-2) (Last week: 4) Since they're on the wrong side of head-to-head, think how different this season would be if the Packers-Cowboys game didn't happen to be scheduled in Dallas. (Remaining games: at Chicago, vs. Detroit)

2. Indianapolis (12-2) (Last week: 2) King Kaufman correctly pointed out that the Colts often seem to toy with weak opponents. (Remaining games: vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)

1. New England (14-0) (Last week: 1) I'm not sure which meme annoyed me more: The hubris that a blowout was inevitable, or the stigma that this might not be a good cold weather team. Neither is true. (Remaining games: vs. Miami, at NY Giants)

Jets +24.5

Are bettors actually picking the Patriots (and giving that many points) this weekend?

I have no desire whatsoever to be involved in sports wagering, but those of yhou who know me personally, if anyone is really interested in taking the Patriots (and giving me 24.5 points) on an informal proposition, e-mail me.

The FSBD Top 32: Week 14

I think it's safe to say Indianapolis will win tonight.

32. Miami (0-13) (Last week: 32) The close games have given way to blowouts. (Remaining games: vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)

31. San Francisco (3-10) (Last week: 30) Relapsed into a team incapable of winning. (Remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)

30. Atlanta (3-9) (Last week: 31) TBA (Remaining games: at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)

29. St. Louis (3-10) (Last week: 29) Back to reality (1 of 4). (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)

28. NY Jets (3-10) (Last week: 28) Back to reality (2 of 4). (Remaining games: at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)

27. Carolina (5-8) (Last week: 27) Back to reality (3 of 4). (Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)

26. Kansas City (4-9) (Last week: 25) That's six straight losses since the bye. (Remaining games: vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)

25. Oakland (4-9) (Last week: 24) So predictable. The Bay Area these days make the Sunday afternoon NFL unwatchable. (Remaining games: vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)

24. Baltimore (4-9) (Last week: 21) Back to reality (4 of 4). (Remaining games: at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)

23. Cincinnati (5-8) (Last week: 26) I actually buy the Bill Simmons devil's advocate argument about the Bengals' unlucky schedule timing. 8-8 is quite plausible. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)

22. Chicago (5-8) (Last week: 19) Not the best defense of a conference championship. (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)

21. Arizona (6-7) (Last week: 17) Fun with ITSET ("If The Season Ended Today"): The Cardinals fell out of the #6 seed not at the moment they lost at Seattle, nor at the moment Minnesota won, but rather the moment Detroit lost to Dallas. (Lions had a Division tiebreak over Vikings but MIN had the Conference tiebreak on ARI; meanwhile, ARI over DET head-to-head.) (Remaining games: at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)

20. New Orleans (5-7) (Last week: 20) TBA (Remaining games: vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)

19. Denver (6-7) (Last week: 22) If you started Selvin Young in a fantasy league today, you're psychic (or in dire roster straits). (Remaining games: at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)

18. Washington (6-7) (Last week: 16) Look at those remaining opponents: This is where Easterbrook writes "6-10" in his playbook. (Remaining games: at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)

17. Philadelphia (5-8) (Last week: 15) Goalpost says "No." (Remaining games: at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)

16. Houston (6-7) (Last week: 23) Sage Rosenfels will do his best to prove me wrong. Between the Texas and Vikings, I wonder which team will have the most variance in this series of polls (you'll notice other teams don't move around much). (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)

15. Detroit (6-7) (Last week: 18) Nice ground game! This would have been a godsend to break the skid but it was not to be. (Remaining games: at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)

14. Minnesota (7-6) (Last week: 14) Undefeated since I dismissed them as a terrible team. But don't believe anyone who has them in the top 10, especially if they overreacted to a win against a terrible opponent. (Remaining games: vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)

13. Buffalo (7-6) (Last week: 13) Perfect timing for this match-up: if the Bills won at Cleveland then they'd have the tiebreak for the sixth seed. If. (Hard schedule even after that.) (Remaining games: at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)

12. Tennessee (7-6) (Last week: 12) Moving them down would be tempting, unless you treat overtime as effectively a tie, or recognize that destroying cupcakes (as the Bills and Vikings did) isn't all that impressive. (Remaining games: at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)

11. Tampa Bay (8-5) (Last week: 9) Good news: ridiculously easy last three games. Bad news (for seeding): Seattle also has an easy end schedule. (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)

10. Cleveland (8-5) (Last week: 11) Didn't panic. (Or did have good fortune for follow-up opponent, the Jets' upset of Pittsburgh notwithstanding.) (Remaining games: vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)

9. NY Giants (9-4) (Last week: 8) Welcome back, Plaxico. (As for the rest, don't confuse the ability to induce opposing missed field goals with a skill. To be sure, that looked like a very long attempt.) (Remaining games: vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)

8. Seattle (9-4) (Last week: 10) Matt Hasselbeck awaits a triumphant(?) playoff return to Lambeau Field. (Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)

7. San Diego (8-5) (Last week: 7) Fifty minutes of stink-bomb, then a defining comeback. (Remaining games: vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)

6. Pittsburgh (9-4) (Last week: 5) If I coached a team on which some scrub guaranteed a victory, that scrub would be cut immediately. Maybe that's just me. (Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)

5. Jacksonville (9-4) (Last week: 6) For playoff seeding purposes it's irrelevant whether the Jaguars have a better team than the Steelers, though it'll be fun to settle on the Week 15 field. (Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)

4. Green Bay (11-2) (Last week: 4) You know they host the Colts in 2008, right? Can you feel the quarterback overpraise already? (Remaining games: at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)

3. Dallas (12-1) (Last week: 2) Good gut-check. (Remaining games: vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)

2. Indianapolis (11-2) (Last week: 3) Had a bit less trouble with the Ravens than New England did. (Remaining games: at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)

1. New England (13-0) (Last week: 1) They're fine. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)

This Week in Correll Buckhalter History

Brian Westbrook is listed as questionable (again). Again I'll wait and see, and he'll end up playing and having a big game.

More important to the post title, Duce Staley officially retired as an Eagle, several years after he was last relevant (Steelers, splitting time with Jerome Bettis, pre-Willie Parker days).

Sometimes Outlandish Prose Makes a Great Idea Even Better

Should the NFL adopt the college overtime system?

Absolutely!

(Warning: Very not-safe-for-work mental image before he reaches that point.)

Pat!

An otherwise lackluster Rams-Bengals match-up (maybe compelling for particular fantasy football people) gets the annual Pat Summerall sighting. Pat even gets Brian Baldinger (Dick Stockton's usual 2007 partner) so that there's no true 7th-string Fox booth team.

Meanwhile at 49ers Park, Matt Vasgersian yet again. Julia if you see this, we get two Sunday afternoon games this weekend, both involving the local teams, and I couldn't care less about either of them.

(Unless you have Raider or 49er rooting interest, I think your options are to be productive on Sunday, or go to a sports bar that carries that Steelers-Patriots game. There's really no middle ground.)

Incidentally the funniest thing about this map (if the color scheme is consistent with previous maps) is that the New York TV market + the state of Ohio (minus Cincinnati) exceeds the population of several Plains and Mountain states combined.

Oh, speaking of local interest, a post a couple weeks ago about NBC's games contained a very silly misapprehension that resulted from forgetting an important bit of NFL history. I realized the mistake when I thought of this weekend's game as "Colts at Baltimore."

Fantasy Football: End of Regular Season

Three teams out of four made the playoffs. One of them has the #1 seed, another gets a first-round bye.

Sit Ubu Sit, Good Dog: 9-4, best of 10 teams in an ESPN public "plus" league. (It's unclear how much the "plus" part outweighs the public part, especially since I (and at least two other owners in that league) got the team as a free apology for ESPN's fantasy baseball screw-up.) As is standard for public ESPN leagues, top four teams reach the playoffs and each match is actually the sum of two weeks of action (semis Weeks 14-15, Weeks 16-17).

Core players: Roethlisberger, Westbrook, Portis, Jamal Lewis, Plaxico, Galloway, A. Gates

Big lineup decisions: Favre instead of Roethlisberger? L. Coles instead of whoever?

Whom to root against: Matt Hasselbeck, Gore, Edge. Larry Fitzgerald if healthy.

Alaska Ulu: 8-5, #2 seed in a 12-team league of erstwhile baseball statisticians (despite ending the regular season on a three-game skid). The week off gives one particular player more time to heal.

Core players: Bulger(!), Westbrook, Jones-Drew, M. Lynch(?), B. Edwards, Plaxico

Big lineup decisions: Garrard (off the free agent wire!) over Bulger? Fred Taylor over Jones-Drew? Both Jaguar backs if Lynch never comes back? Wouldn't a Jacksonville backfield trifecta be a hoot?

Whom to root against: TBA

^@^ ^@^: 6-6-1, #4 seed in a 10-team Coen et al league

Core players: TBA, W. Parker, S. Jackson, S. Smith, H. Ward, K. Curtis

Big lineup decisions: OK, Donovan or Kurt Warner? Finally pull the plug on Steve Smith (understudy would be Dwayne Bowe or Roddy White)?

Whom to root against: Peyton Manning, the good Adrian Peterson, and Terrell Owens. That's the nucleus of a team that started out 1-7(!) (and has since won five in a row).

The Dugout: Either You Like It Or You Don't

They've branched out to football: Count me firmly in the "like" category, especially the conceit of Manning brothers as Flanders brothers.

Can I Have Some of What Gregg Easterbrook is Smoking?

I will readily admit that bowls are logistically easier than a true championship. But none of the first few paragraphs of this piece explain why college football couldn't adopt something similar to college basketball. (His whole point about bowl locations being known years in advance is bogus because teams won't know which bowl they go to until early December. Seriously, are there people who make a specific bowl their tourist destination without even knowing who'll play there? Aside from a specific year's BCS championship game I just don't see it. And at that, there's no reason a playoff system is incompatible with "Championship Game: Pasadena, January 3.")

BONUS Easterbrook fallacy: "Ravens cornerback Samari Rolle said after the game that head linesman Phil McKinnely repeatedly called him "boy" in the game's closing minutes, a racial insult when spoken by a white person to an African-American."

Gregg, does this man look white to you?

Worst Comment I Can Remember Seeing on Football Outsiders

I had simply been e-mailing this, but the more I think about it the more annoyed I am that someone so wrong could be so smug about being wrong. (The context is Aaron Schatz's observation that Nobody knows what the rules are, and they seem to be applied willy-nilly.)

Here (#12).

I don't even know where to begin.

"Here’s a thought: before complaining again, spend a season officiating any relatively fast moving sport."

Or, for that matter, trying to hit a 90 MPH fastball or trying to stop a blitzing Ray Lewis.

"Fans who cannot seem to comprehend the difference between a rule (don't go more than 55 MPH) and a standard (don’t drive recklessly). Life and sports are both chock o' block full of standards, so just get over it. What is 'Holding'? What is 'Pass Interference'? They’re standards. Get over it."

Remind me: How frequently does a cop needs to distinguish reckless driving from non-reckless? Compared to that, how many times a game must a ref distinguish pass interference from a legal play?

Brian Billick + 1972 Dolphins =

...so help me I'm glad New England won tonight.

The 1972 Dolphins alone may be enough for me to hope the Patriots do finish undefeated.

The FSBD Top 32: Week 13

Let's see whether the Excel cut-and-paste thing still works. For what it's worth I put the Colts back ahead of Green Bay among the teams most likely to lose conference championship games.

There are also some interesting down-ballot comparisons, both what I punted and what I sorted out (or tried to).

After Monday night's game, Patriots will still be #1 no matter what. Ravens could plausibly move up if the game goes down to the wire. Oh my.

32. Miami (0-12) (Last week: 32) Best chance to win. Didn't even come close. (Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)

31. Atlanta (3-9) (Last week: 31) Chris Redman was born in Louisville and played at Louisville. Apparently the 2002 Ravens used him six games. (Remaining games: vs. New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)

30. San Francisco (3-9) (Last week: 30) About to play three straight home games. Oh, joy. (Remaining games: vs. Minnesota, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)

29. St. Louis (3-9) (Last week: 29) Made it look easy (but against Atlanta it was). (Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)

28. NY Jets (3-9) (Last week: 28) I still don't understand how that became a 40-13 game. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)

27. Carolina (5-7) (Last week: 27) That's one way to end a home losing streak. (Remaining games: at Jacksonville, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)

26. Cincinnati (4-8) (Last week: 24) Weren't going to win (1 of 2) (Remaining games: vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)

25. Kansas City (4-8) (Last week: 22) Weren't going to win (2 of 2) (Remaining games: at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)

24. Oakland (4-8) (Last week: 26) Hey, two straight wins against bitter conference rivals. (Remaining games: at Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)

23. Houston (5-7) (Last week: 16) Sage Rosenfels won't guide you to a playoff berth. (To be fair, he wasn't that bad when they previously lost Schaub.) (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)

22. Denver (5-7) (Last week: 17) Just lost to the Raiders. Shanahan might be a bit angry about that. (Remaining games: vs. Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)

21. Baltimore (4-8) (Last week: 25) So close. (Remaining games: vs. Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)

20. New Orleans (5-7) (Last week: 19) Hangover season but still a bit better than their record. Had a great chance today, but somehow lose games like that? (1 of 2) (Remaining games: at Atlanta, vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)

19. Chicago (5-7) (Last week: 20) Hangover season but still a bit better than their record. Had a great chance today, but somehow lose games like that? (2 of 2) (Remaining games: at Washington, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)

17. Arizona (6-6) (Last week: 23) What is it about the desert that terrible 49er teams win there, no sweat, but good teams don't? (Remaining games: at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)

18. Detroit (6-6) (Last week: 13) I keep mentioning this, but if you told a Lions fan in August that they'd go 7-9, wouldn't that be cause for celebration? (To be sure, they're not there yet.) (Remaining games: vs. Dallas, at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)

16. Washington (5-7) (Last week: 15) RIP. Move on as best you can. (Remaining games: vs. Chicago, at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)

15. Philadelphia (5-7) (Last week: 12) Second straight game that good-for-nothing backup quarterback choked away with a late INT. Why, the fans out to be outraged. (Wait, what?) (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)

14. Minnesota (6-6) (Last week: 21) In a way, that game was a baton passing. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)

13. Buffalo (6-6) (Last week: 18) For the first time since Week 1 they faced a team that was neither excellent nor terrible. It happened to be a team distracted by death, in a road game where the storybook ending was for that team to win (and that opponent led a fugly game, 9-2 at the half). But guys named Trent Edwards and Fred Jackson pulled it out. Incidentally, I could not disagree more with Bill Simmons: Playing New England, then at Jacksonville, both without your star halfback, is not "free fall." (Remaining games: vs. Miami, at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)

12. Tennessee (7-5) (Last week: 14) Welcome back Albert (or "Alfred," as a ludicrous SportsTicker wire report inaccurately named you) (Remaining games: vs. San Diego, at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)

11. Cleveland (7-5) (Last week: 9) Not an irresistable force after all, but (if I'm not mistaken) still an If The Season Ended Today playoff team (5-4 conference record versus Tennessee's 4-4). (Remaining games: at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)

10. Seattle (8-4) (Last week: 11) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (1 of 3) (Remaining games: vs. Arizona, at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)

9. Tampa Bay (8-4) (Last week: 8) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (2 of 3) (Remaining games: at Houston, vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)

8. NY Giants (8-4) (Last week: 10) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (3 of 3) (Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)

7. San Diego (7-5) (Last week: 7) This whole time they'd had (and will have) a ranking that makes it look like they should have one more win than they do. It almost reminds me of an odd-team-out powermatching anomaly. (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)

6. Jacksonville (8-4) (Last week: 6) Losing by three points on the road to a fantastic team is at least a moral tie. (Remaining games: vs. Carolina, at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)

5. Pittsburgh (9-3) (Last week: 5) Everything squared away with the field now? (Remaining games: at New England, vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)

4. Green Bay (10-2) (Last week: 3) Losing Favre wasn't the end of the world but there's a big difference between Favre at his best and not. Also, on Yahoo! the right abbreviation is GNB: Anything else takes you to a team with nothing but byes, whose next game is at 7 p.m. December 31, 1969. (Remaining games: vs. Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)

3. Indianapolis (10-2) (Last week: 4) They're gonna be okay. Only losses this year were a blown lead to the Patriot juggernaut and that weird game at San Diego. (Remaining games: at Baltimore, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)

2. Dallas (11-1) (Last week: 2) That turned out a lot closer that I thought it would as of the 27-10 second quarter margin. (Remaining games: at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)

1. New England (12-0) (Last week: 1) Clearly #1 even if they lose Monday. Like the 49ers, inexplicably about to play three straight home games. (Remaining games: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)

One Last Piece of Michigan Schadenfreude

Hey, remember back in August when the Wolverines lost to Appalachian State and there was much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth about how their season was "already over," how after just one game there was no chance Michigan would win a national championship?

Think what would have happened if they'd run the table after Appalachian State -- or even after Oregon.

It's Still A Great Symbolic Gesture

As the Buffalo Bills got ready to run their first play midway through the first quarter, the man who replaced Taylor in the starting lineup, Reed Doughty, stood near coaches on the sideline with his arms crossed. After watching while Bills running back Fred Jackson gained 22 yards, [...]

Quarterback Health

To: Marc Bulger
Cc: Matt Schaub

Really? Both of you? Is this your way of telling me I should have traded Marshawn Lynch for Derek Anderson instead of laughing at what seemed like a ridiculous sell-high offer?

A 29-Team Simple Closed Loop of 2007 NFL Transitivity

This has been in my head forever now. Obviously 29 isn't nearly as cool as 32 but right now New England, Miami, and Dallas (having lost only to New England) can't be part of any closed loop.

None Not all of what you see after the jump has been confirmed, but a simple closed loop will exist as soon as either San Francisco or Carolina wins their game (against each other) this weekend already exists.

UPDATE: Fixed.

1. Carolina beat Atlanta week 3

2. Atlanta beat San Francisco earlier this month

3. San Francisco beate Arizona on Warner's overtime end zone fumble.

4. Arizona beat St. Louis during the Rams' long winless start

5. St. Louis beat New Orleans to break that winless start

6. New Orleans beat Seattle on a Sunday night to break their own winless start

7. Seattle beat Chicago in the game NBC kicked to the curb (from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon)

8. Chicago beat Green Bay on a Sunday night

9. Green Bay beat Minnesota the game Adrian Peterson got hurt

10. Minnesota beat NY Giants by running back three Eli interceptions

11. NY Giants beat Philadelphia by sacking McNabb 12 times

12. Philadelphia beat Washington on Veteran's Day with Westbrook's late runs

13. Washington annihilated Detroit

14. Detroit annihilated Denver

15. Denver beat Oakland with a well-timed timeout to preempt the game-winning field goal

16. Oakland beat Kansas City to break a 17-game division losing streak

17. Kansas City beat San Diego back when Norv Turner looked especially shaky

18. San Diego beat Indianapolis on a Sunday night

19. Indianapolis beat Tampa Bay when the Bucs had been undefeated

20. Tampa Bay beat Tennessee week 6

21. Tennessee beat Jacksonville with a lot of rushing yards week 1

22. Jacksonville beat Buffalo a few days ago

23. Buffalo beat Cincinnati when Marshawn Lynch took over the game

24. Cincinnati beat Baltimore on Week 1 Monday night

25. Baltimore beat NY Jets a week later

26. NY Jets beat Pittsburgh right before Thanksgiving

27. Pittsburgh clocked Cleveland in Week 1

28. Cleveland beat Houston a few days ago

29. Houston beat Carolina week 2

Clash of the NFL Logos

(Inspired by this column.)

Does Seattle at Philadelphia produce the platonic ideal NFL logo showdown? (That is, put the visiting team's logo on the left and home team's logo on the right.) It's hard to top, specifically because the Philadelphia Eagle is the only logo to face the left instead of the right.

Packers-Cowboys looks like a regular expression.

49ers-Panthers looks like nothing.

Bills-Redskins: Tonto's about to get blindsided!

Texans-Titans: Basically the same logo twice.

Falcons-Rams: almost like a tickbird-rhino symbiosis but not quite

Lions-Vikings: given the cat's posture this is a most unfortunate pairing. It looks like Olaf has a Marques Slocum

Jaguars-Colts: now fluffy, we just need one more X-ray. open your mouth... and bite.

Chargers-Chiefs: boing! it's an arrowhead slinky!

(I got nothing on the rest of them, which is just as well rather than run the gag into the ground.)

Silly NFL Branding Question

"The Rooneys want Heinz Field to be natural. On Monday night, it was a natural disaster. Seeing two TV shots of punted balls landing in the mud and sticking there might convince the Rooneys to take the natural feel away from Heinz in 2008."
--John Clayton

But wouldn't punted balls also stick in the mud of the mythical "corner of Halas & Landry" from all those TV and web video ads?

The Four Groups of People Entitled to Pass Judgment on Ricky Williams

0. The National Football League commissioner's office (as in literal "judgment," i.e. disciplinary measures)

1. The Miami Dolphins

2. Fans of the Miami Dolphins

3. (but most important) Ricky Williams

For all his pontificating, as far as I can tell Gregg Easterbrook belongs to none of those three groups.

Only Williams himself can decide whether he's living up to potential and, if not, to what extent that's a problem.

NBC Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling

While I wasn't paying attention, NBC choose (or else saw no reason to upgrade from) Cincinnati at Pittsburgh as the Week 13 Sunday night game.

Weeks 14-17 still seem to have flex options available; Awful Announcing somehow learned which Sunday afternoon games are protected.

If I had to guess...
Week 14: Upgrade from Colts-Ravens to Cardinals-Seawhawks (Steelers-Patriots and Giants-Eagles are both protected; Cowboys-Lions is unavailable because Dallas is maxed out on prime time appearances)

Week 15: Keep Giants-Redskins

Week 16: Upgrade from Buccaneers-49ers to whichever of (Eagles-Saints, Redskins-Vikings) has greater playoff implications as of the selection deadline.

Week 17: Too soon to tell and will depend entirely on playoff implications, but Lions-Packers and Titans-Colts are among the distinct possibilities. (Chiefs-Jets is overwhelmingly likely to be rejected.)

The FSBD Top 32: Week 12

(Week two of pasting all content directly from a spreadsheet.)

There are nine teams at 5-6, none of whom play tomorrow. I have seven of them slotted in the 15-21 range. Pairwise they all make sense to me but if somebody said, "No, you're wrong, Denver should be #20 instead of #17"... it's not like I'd spend much time arguing either way.

Fewer comments than usual but from here on out I'm including each team's full remaining regular season schedule.

Monday update: I almost flipped the Steelers and Jaguars, but not quite.

32. Miami (0-11) (Last week: 31) I don't think they'll go 0-16 though. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo, vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)

31. Atlanta (3-8) (Last week: 29) Outscored 62-20 in their last two games (both at home). (Remaining games: at St. Louis, vs. New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)

30. San Francisco (3-8) (Last week: 32) Wins entirely attributable to two missed field goals and a defender foolishly failing to bat a ball out of the end zone. (Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Minnesota, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)

29. St. Louis (2-9) (Last week: 30) (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at Cincinnati, vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)

28. NY Jets (2-9) (Last week: 27) (Remaining games: at Miami, vs. Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)

27. Carolina (4-7) (Last week: 25) Can't win at home; QB situation is a mess. (Remaining games: vs. San Francisco, at Jacksonville, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)

26. Oakland (3-8) (Last week: 28) (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)

25. Baltimore (4-7) (Last week: 23) Think New England will be mad? (Remaining games: vs. New England, vs. Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)

24. Cincinnati (4-7) (Last week: 26) (Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)

23. Arizona (5-6) (Last week: 22) For awhile last week I wondered if I'd egregiously underrated this team. Guess not. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)

22. Kansas City (4-7) (Last week: 21) (Remaining games: vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)

21. Minnesota (5-6) (Last week: 24) Other than the Cardinals and Eagles, these 5-6 teams are practically interchangeable even aside from their records. I readily admit that defeats the purpose of bothering to read a power poll, much less write one. (Remaining games: vs. Detroit, at San Francisco, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)

20. Chicago (5-6) (Last week: 20) I almost ranked them higher but playing at home vs. Denver they shouldn't have had to rally from a 14-point deficit. (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Washington, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)

19. New Orleans (5-6) (Last week: 19) Crushed a team that seems to be phoning it in after all. (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)

18. Buffalo (5-6) (Last week: 18) (Remaining games: at Washington, vs. Miami, at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)

17. Denver (5-6) (Last week: 15) Blew it. The other teams in the 15-18 tier lost road games that they were reasonably expected to lose. (Remaining games: at Oakland, vs. Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)

16. Houston (5-6) (Last week: 17) (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)

15. Washington (5-6) (Last week: 14) (Remaining games: vs. Buffalo, vs. Chicago, at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)

14. Tennessee (6-5) (Last week: 10) Overreaction? Maybe. But what happened? Injuries only explain one side of the ball. (Remaining games: vs. Houston, vs. San Diego, at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)

13. Detroit (6-5) (Last week: 12) Tiebreaker situation means 8-8 is unlikely to be enough; that means they need to win at San Diego, at Green Bay, or vs. Dallas. Good luck! (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Dallas, at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)

12. Philadelphia (5-6) (Last week: 16) Computer programs love this team. Games like this show that the potential is always there. It's also pretty nifty that this week's top 12 match my (as of now) predicted playoff teams. (Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)

11. Seattle (7-4) (Last week: 13) (Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs. Arizona, at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)

10. NY Giants (7-4) (Last week: 5) No need to panic over one bad game; that said, it was a terrible game. At least one NFC East team must miss the playoffs, and neither the Eagles nor Redskins are laying down. (Remaining games: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)

9. Cleveland (7-4) (Last week: 11) Are you ready for a(nother) Browns-Steelers wild card game? The last one was most excellent. (Remaining games: at Arizona, at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)

8. Tampa Bay (7-4) (Last week: 8) The first seven slots all seem obvious to me, as does Seattle at #11. Like the whole mess of non-extreme 5-6 teams, #8 to #10 might be interchangeable. (Remaining games: at New Orleans, at Houston, vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)

7. San Diego (6-5) (Last week: 9) (Remaining games: at Kansas City, at Tennessee, vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)

6. Jacksonville (8-3) (Last week: 7) (Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs. Carolina, at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)

5. Pittsburgh (8-3) (Last week: 6) (Remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, at New England, vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)

4. Indianapolis (9-2) (Last week: 4) (Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)

3. Green Bay (10-1) (Last week: 3) (Remaining games: at Dallas, vs. Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)

2. Dallas (10-1) (Last week: 2) (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)

1. New England (11-0) (Last week: 1) (Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)

Begging the Question

"That big-college football and men's basketball players should be paid is a perennial contention. TMQ thinks the idea is wrong on these scores: First, the players already receive tuition, room and board, which is hardly an inconsequential form of payment; second, paying college players would ruin college sports, thus killing the golden goose and ending the money flow."
--TMQ (emphasis added)

While we're here (these both probably ought to have been part of the post below; such is life), yet another Easterbrook-ism:

"[D]o you really need to pay people $50 million a year to inspire them to work hard? The unstated assumption is that for anything less than ultraextravagant pay, modern CEOs will refuse to perform their duties. Anybody like that should not be hired in the first place!"

On the planet where TMQ resides, all employer-executive negotiations are within a bilateral monopoly. (Nobody gets better offers elsewhere.)

Do you think CEO compensation represents a market inefficiency? If so, why do you think the efficient market hypothesis failed? (My gut answers are "Yes" and "Because boards of directors have blatant conflicts of interest," but TMQ's knee-jerk populism doesn't even reach such questions.)

A Football/Politics Crossover Post

In your opinion, was Bush vs. Gore resolved correctly?

In your opinion, was this football game resolved correctly?

I say yes to both. I realize a case could be made that those positions aren't consistent, but I think enough distinguishes the two. (Summoning football players from the dressing room isn't quite on the same level as waiting weeks/months to see who leads a nation of 250 million people.)

If you were a devil's advocate could you make a coherent, consistent case for "no" to both questions?

The FSBD Top 32: Week 11

I think it's safe to say the Patriots will hold their 28-7 lead.

Excel concatenation formulas tweaked to add win-loss records. Some fallout from Monday night.

32. San Francisco (2-8) (Last week: 31) Follow their historically bad DVOA (basically a performance assessment) at FootballOutsiders.com (Week 12: at Arizona)

31. Miami (0-10) (Last week: 32) Yes, you'd intuitively expect to see the only winless team at the bottom. But that's not ironclad. If the Dolphins and 49ers met next week at a neutral site, I think Miami would be more likely to win. Discuss. (Week 12: at Pittsburgh (Monday))

30. St. Louis (2-8) (Last week: 29) I'm glad I didn't watch. (Week 12: vs. Seattle)

29. Atlanta (3-7) (Last week: 26) The Paris 1941 method of protecting one's house. (Week 12: vs. Indianapolis (Thursday))

28. Oakland (2-8) (Last week: 28) How many games in NFL history have been 19-19 at the half? (Week 12: at Kansas City)

27. NY Jets (2-8) (Last week: 30) Any given game should be winnable by any given home team. (Week 12: at Dallas (Thursday))

26. Cincinnati (3-7) (Last week: 25) Throwing five TD passes would usually be a good thing. (Week 12: vs. Tennessee)

25. Carolina (4-6) (Last week: 27) Despite last week's comment, not phoning it in just yet. (Week 12: vs. New Orleans)

24. Minnesota (4-6) (Last week: 24) Didn't miss Adrian Peterson Week 11. Might miss him Week 12. (Week 12: at NY Giants)

23. Baltimore (4-6) (Last week: 22) The system worked. (Week 12: at San Diego)

22. Arizona (5-5) (Last week: 20) Interceptions are mostly skill, interception returns mostly luck. (Week 12: vs. San Francisco)

21. Kansas City (4-6) (Last week: 21) I got nothing (1 of 3) (Week 12: vs. Oakland)

20. Chicago (4-6) (Last week: 18) I got nothing (2 of 3) (Week 12: vs. Denver)

19. New Orleans (4-6) (Last week: 15) I got nothing (3 of 3) (Week 12: at Carolina)

18. Buffalo (5-5) (Last week: 19) Maybe hosting the 2007 Patriots is an exception to the rule mentioned in the Jets comment? (Week 12: at Jacksonville)

17. Houston (5-5) (Last week: 23) OK, who do you put in this spot then? In any event it's a much better team if Schaub and Johnson are both healthy. (Week 12: at Cleveland)

16. Philadelphia (5-5) (Last week: 16) Not Donovan McNabb's finest game. (Week 12: at New England (Sunday night))

15. Denver (5-5) (Last week: 17) The Broncos will have gone from October 7 to December 9 without a Sunday afternoon home game. (Week 12: at Chicago)

14. Washington (5-5) (Last week: 14) They hung in there on the road against a much better team. (Week 12: at Tampa Bay)

13. Seattle (6-4) (Last week: 13) Likely to be the worst playoff team yet receive a home game. (Week 12: at St. Louis)

12. Detroit (6-4) (Last week: 11) On the bright side, imagine predicting in August that the Lions would be as good as 7-9 (or even 8-8!). (Week 12: vs. Green Bay (Thursday))

11. Cleveland (6-4) (Last week: 12) Big road win: check. Finally some defense: not so much. (Week 12: vs. Houston)

10. Tennessee (6-4) (Last week: 8) Now we know who anchored their defense. (Week 12: at Cincinnati)

9. San Diego (5-5) (Last week: 9) They hung in there on the road against a quasi-elite team. (Week 12: vs. Baltimore)

8. Tampa Bay (6-4) (Last week: 10) A worthy NFC semi-finalist. (Week 12: vs. Washington)

7. Jacksonville (7-3) (Last week: 7) Playoff rematch in San Diego? (Week 12: vs. Buffalo)

6. Pittsburgh (7-3) (Last week: 5) The two Pennsylvania teams affect my fantasy football more than any other. This was supposed to be a cakewalk (as was the Eagles-Dolphins game). Oh well. (Week 12: vs. Miami)

5. NY Giants (7-3) (Last week: 6) Good bounceback. (Week 12: vs. Minnesota)

4. Indianapolis (8-2) (Last week: 3) What's wrong (it's not just the injuries), and will a trip to Atlanta cure it? (Week 12: at Atlanta (Thursday))

3. Green Bay (9-1) (Last week: 4) Thursday, November 29, at Dallas: If only this billion-dollar league didn't have the combination of greed and hubris to charge an extortionary price, then try to blame companies unwilling to pay that price. Business news aside, four of their next five are on the road. (Week 12: at Detroit (Thursday))

2. Dallas (9-1) (Last week: 2) Three straight home games are awfully convenient this time of year. (Week 12: vs. NY Jets (Thursday))

1. New England (10-0) (Last week: 1) I had a 40-point lead. The other guy had Randy Moss. If he wins, there's a chance Moss will have outscored the rest of his team combined. (So one way or another it's an interesting week for my own team to have come in way below par.) (Week 12: vs. Philadelphia (Sunday night))

Nancy Gay Channels Her Inner Mark Trail

If you need to make good with the boss, take some tips from Ricky Williams. The 1998 Heisman Trophy-winning running back knows what it takes to get back in an employer's good graces:

Lose the scraggly homeless man beard.
--in the SF Chronicle (of all places)

Misplaced Modifier of the Day

Fantasy football 7, English language 0.

"As a Ronnie Brown keeper-league owner who feared that his team's chances for a championship were ruined the moment that Brown suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7, Jesse Chatman has quickly emerged as a personal favorite and quasi-savior."
--first god-forsaken sentence of this column

"Withdrawl"?!

Either there is yet another Adrian Peterson meme (to go with Purple Jesus, All Day, and Employee of the Month*), or somebody at ESPN's fantasy sports division does not know how to spell "withdrawal."

I weep.

*- Cheap shot, since, he didn't receive paychecks from the car dealership in question. (Rather, he took advantage of a "standard practice" where in the dealership let owners return cars with buyer's remorse.)

It's Never Too Late for an FFL Sit/Start Dilemma

Maurice Morris or Bobby Engram? (need at least 6.85 points in a .1 points per yard league)

Adam Vinatieri is F'n Automatic!

(Somewhere in Cooch's archives)

NBC very heavily promoted the Week 11 "flex game": New England at Buffalo. Funny things about this:

1. We know the Bills' hot streak is based on an easy schedule.

2. Flexes aside, Week 12's default Sunday night game was to be Philadelphia at New England. I assume they won't do the Patriots twice in a row.

3. There's a paucity of good Sunday Week 12 games. The best by default seems to be Washington at Tampa Bay (or Buffalo at Jacksonville! - but I assume they won't do the Bills twice in a row either).

4. Week 12 Monday night is Miami at Pittsburgh. That's even an more heinous mismatch than NY Jets at Dallas on Thanksgiving proper! (And also more heinous than Indianapolis at Atlanta, later Thanksgiving night, only on pay TV.)

5. The Week 11 "4:05 game" is Pittsburgh at NY Jets. As far as I can tell that means the New York market won't get to see Washington at Dallas.

6. Week 12 "4:15 games": Baltimore at San Diego, or Denver at Chicago. Pick your poison!

The FSBD Top 32: Week 10

"The coach is killing me!" (reference)

Update to reflect Monday night's game. Seattle up two, Washington and New Orleans each down one.

32. Miami (0-9) (Last week: 31) There can be only one. (Week 11: at Philadelphia)

31. San Francisco (2-7) (Last week: 30) Could move up by at least playing the Seahawks tight on Monday. (Week 11: vs. St. Louis)

30. NY Jets (1-8) (Last week: 29) Bye. (Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh)

29. St. Louis (1-8) (Last week: 32) Is this an overreaction? (I almost put them at 28.) The thing is, Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are significantly healthier than two weeks (much less one month) ago. In hindsight their tailspin shouldn't have surprised: Imagine if the Eagles lost both McNabb and Westbrook, or the Chargers both Rivers and Tomlinson. (Week 11: at San Francisco)

28. Oakland (2-7) (Last week: 27) I checked scores around 4. The Raiders had just gotten the ball, down 10-6 with about two minutes left. Next thing I knew they'd just gotten the ball, down 17-6 with about two minutes left. (Week 11: at Minnesota)

27. Carolina (4-5) (Last week: 24) He's dead, Jim. (Week 11: at Green Bay)

26. Atlanta (3-6) (Last week: 28) Close losses are turning into close wins. Joey Harrington led a game-winning drive on the road. That said, their remaining schedule isn't easy. (Week 11: vs. Tampa Bay)

25. Cincinnati (3-6) (Last week: 26) I hope Shayne Graham didn't face any of your fantasy teams. (Week 11: vs. Cincinnati)

24. Minnesota (3-6) (Last week: 17) Brian was so right about this team. And that was before the Peterson injury. (Week 11: vs. Oakland)

23. Houston (4-5) (Last week: 25) Bye. (Week 11: vs. New Orleans)

22. Baltimore (4-5) (Last week: 15) What an egg to lay! At home against the Bengals defense (the Bengals!) and their only offense is a late shutout-averting touchdown. Next four are against Cleveland, San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis. (Week 11: vs. Cleveland)

21. Kansas City (4-5) (Last week: 19) Those "two straight big home games" turned into two straight home losses. And now Brodie Croyle. And now... (Week 11: at Indianapolis)

20. Arizona (4-5) (Last week: 23) Dear Jon, Who's on God's Team now? Love, Kurt. (Week 11: at Cincinnati)

19. Buffalo (5-4) (Last week: 20) That's four in a row since the Monday night collapse. Given the rest of their slate I'd be surprised if they made it to 8-8. Look at their opponents from the winning streak then compare their trajectory on other polls to their trajectory on this one. (Going back to the beginning: 19, 22, 24, 24, 21, 25*, 25, 24, 20, 19. The biggest drop was on their bye week and basically amounted to "Okay, ZD, I see your point," wiping out the effect of my bumping them up three spots for nearly beating Dallas.) (Week 11: vs. New England, Sunday night)

18. Chicago (4-5) (Last week: 18) They really needed Rex back? (Week 11: at Seattle)

17. Denver (4-5) (Last week: 21) Not dead yet! (1 of 2) (Week 11: vs. Tennessee, Monday night)

16. Philadelphia (4-5) (Last week: 22) Not dead yet! (2 of 2) (Week 11: vs. Miami)

15. New Orleans (4-5) (Last week: 12) Now that's the Drew Brees that I dropped in a fantasy league. Whoever picked in up in DownWith: Ha! I hope you started him this weekend. (Week 11: at Houston)

14. Washington (5-4) (Last week: 13) In the big 4th quarter sequence, Eagles defense to Clinton Portis: "No, you can't have a touchdown!" Followed by Brian Westbrook to Redskins defense: "No, you can't stop me!" The second one happened twice. (Week 11: at Dallas)

13. Seattle (5-4) (Last week: 16) TBA. (After last Monday I forgot to change the Baltimore comment from "TBA" to something snarky. You'd think this won't be a problem tomorrow. You'd think.) (Week 11: vs. Chicago)

12. Cleveland (5-4) (Last week: 14) Every fiber of my being bristles about bumping a team two spots after a choke like that. You can't be playoff-caliber without winning on the road, and you can't win on the road without defense. They "gained" these spots by not being nearly as bad this weekend as the two below them. (Week 11: at Baltimore)

11. Detroit (6-3) (Last week: 8) Red flag alert! Not to be defeatist, but this team could very well go 7-9 (for the seventh win take your pick from "at Minnesota" and "vs. Kansas City") and still accomplish a lot more. I just hope it's not unfairly maligned when all is said and done, for peaking early (and having the easier schedule early) instead of late. (Week 11: vs. NY Giants)

10. Tampa Bay (5-4) (Last week: 11) Bye. Other than teams at the extremes, and Pittsburgh, there's no team that more obviously belongs in its exact spot than this one. (Week 11: at Atlanta)

9. San Diego (5-4) (Last week: 9) Al Michaels predicted that San Diego's sports talk radio would become "X-rated." Does that involve phone sex somehow? (Week 11: at Jacksonville)

8. Tennessee (6-3) (Last week: 7) My favorite Radiohead song is "Let Down." (Week 11: at Denver, Monday night)

7. Jacksonville (6-3) (Last week: 10) Weird AP lede: "The Jacksonville Jaguars are proof of the motivating power of embarrassment and desperation." (Week 11: vs. San Diego)

6. NY Giants (6-3) (Last week: 6) OK, so they're not quite elite (and probably won't have any playoff home games). (Week 11: at Detroit)

5. Pittsburgh (7-2) (Last week: 5) Tremendous gaps just above and just below. (Week 11: at NY Jets)

4. Green Bay (8-1) (Last week: 4) I wouldn't be surprised to see them third in some polls. That would be a distinct overemphasis on the team's most recent game. (Week 11: vs. Carolina)

3. Indianapolis (7-2) (Last week: 3) Nice picks, Peyton. But after all that (and how much of the early deficit came from special teams variance), in a way this game was quite a rout. (Week 11: vs. Kansas City)

2. Dallas (8-1) (Last week: 2) Last time this (Cowboys over Colts) defied common sense and was an egregious example of "what have you done for me lately?" bias. This week it may still be controversial, though the Giants are distinctly better than the Chargers. (Week 11: vs. Washington)

1. New England (9-0) (Last week: 1) Bye. (Week 11: at Buffalo, Sunday night)

Home-Marketed

Good: Fox was vigilant about switching viewers from Packers-Vikings to Eagles-Redskins the moment the former became a 27-point game.

Bad: No matter how that game comes out, we get three minutes of commercials and then the opening kickoff of that much-anticipated Bears-Raiders game. Might as well turn off the TV now.

On the bright side: Have I mentioned I like Brian Westbrook a lot?

Fun fantasy football note: Thanks mostly to early game-late game variance, in my ESPN Leagues I'm up 76 to 13 and 107 to 37.

My Two Favorite NFL Rivalries

Are both on right now. (Lutheran Bowl (or, "purple versus yellow") and Denver-KC.) In light of both of these, the answer I gave to Craig's Facebook question -- What is your favorite sports rivalry? -- was especially lacking.

In baseball I tend to dislike classic rivalries because fans on both sides become unbearable. Yankees-Red Sox, Cardinals-Cubs, Giants-Dodgers all have that problem. At any given moment the baseball "rivalry" I like most is a transient thing: Lately A's-Angels, but that's about to get very one-sided.

Jason Garrett

I didn't realize he was the Dallas Cowboys' offensive coordinator until seeing his name mentioned on Football Outsiders. Here's more you may or may not have known. I distinctly remember that 1994 Thanksgiving game. That was the day I spent with the classmate who'd invited me to dinner with her church group.

It was a group infamous in the Boston area for high-pressure tactics. I didn't realize that she was a member of this group until I saw the group's name on a paperweight somewhere in the apartment where we'd all gathered. From that point on priority #1 was to make a graceful, safe exit at the end of the day.

It worked (the tactics weren't that high-pressure: there was never a "you're free to leave at any time" moment, nor any spiked punch or such), but not before we got to watch this chess movie and the first 15 minutes of this inexcusable Robin Williams vehicle. (Maybe the rest of the group watched the rest of the movie. Maybe "this movie sucks" was my excuse to skedaddle, in addition to being vehemently true.)

I Didn't Know Godwin's Law Applied to ESPN's Page 2

Did Bill Simmons write this column just to win a bet?

"Easterbrook's gone bitshat-crazy; nobody will ever top that."

"O RLY?"

Worst Definition of "Paying" Ever

"Notre Dame created a monster when it fired Tyrone Willingham after three years. Charlie Weis is paying the price."
--lead to a Gene Wojciechowski column on ESPN.com. That's the text shown on the front page (rest of the column is probably here)

Compare to Tim Keown's note just yesterday (boldface in original):
"Rarely does a sentence explain so many things on so many levels with so few words: A wire service story in the aftermath of Notre Dame's loss to Navy included the following sentence -- 'Weis, whose contract runs through 2015, said Sunday he's not worried.'"

If you trust Wikipedia then the "price" "paid" by Weis for Notre Dame's firing of Tyrone Willingham is negative two million dollars per year.

Football Futures Market Amusement

(Despite the nice ring the title has to it, I just mean "things that are sort of like fantasy football but not really," contexts where you're basically predicting what will happen.)

In Barker's Cut-Throat league I will have gotten the entire NFC South out of the way in just weeks 9 and 10. Not on purpose: It just worked out that way. Not that you care, but for the first nine weeks I'd mostly followed a plan set back in August, with only minor changes (things like not picking against Tampa Bay so much after all). This felt like about the right point to throw the rest of the plan out the window and optimize from scratch for the 14 teams I had left and their weakest remaining home opponents.

And in Yahoo! Salary Cap Football (is it ironic that the fantasy football scheme that best rewards thinking like a capitalist is the one in which you don't have exclusive "ownership" of a player within a league? - maybe not if you contrast market competition with monopolies), ladies and gentlemen it's Adrian Peterson and Lee Evans, bringing me to within 5 points of 7th place (of 10). Welcome to the big-time and back from the dead, respectively.

This Week in Gregg Easterbrook

(Tuesday Morning Quarterback, that is.)

Sign of the times: TMQ just changed the "AP" entry in his AutoCorrect from Advanced Placement to Adrian Peterson.

Even though this will sound wrong for anyone who didn't already know Peterson's nickname, shouldn't it be AD (for "All Day")?

But aren't you glad he got that final carry?

Not really, why? If anything this is one more unsettling data point about players of team sports pursuing individual records for their own sake.

The past two Sundays, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have become the only quarterbacks in NFL history to defeat 31 other teams.

In Easterbrook's favor he expresses this one correctly, unlike the San Francisco Chronicle, which incorrectly stated (in a headline) that Favre had beaten every NFL team. (I went to the article excitedly, thinking perhaps he'd happened to beat the Packers while still in Atlanta, but no such luck.)

Stretching back to last season, Pittsburgh is on a 10-3 run.

I remember the day the Coliseum scoreboard bothered to spend pixels telling fans that some player (Scott Hatteberg if I remember right, but the detail isn't relevant) had batted .250 over his previous seven games. These are the sports statistic counterpart to how The Onion revels in "Least Essential" albums.

Marshawn Lynch had rushed on six consecutive snaps, and the Cincinnati defense was fixated on him. Lynch took a pitch right, accompanied by pulling tackle Langston Walker, and flipped a touchdown pass to tight end Robert Royal.

I'd actually e-mailed Chad a cut-and-paste of the plays from that drive, specifically to express how highly I approved.

Endlessly I bellow at my middle school football kids, "Never stop moving on defense!"

Americans spend a incredible amount time on football. Try not to think too hard about that.

Compared to us the cosmos is inexpressibly old; compared to itself, the universe glistens with dew. Creation might continue for hundreds of billions of years -- or forever.

Sure, why not? Seriously! What order of magnitude would you intuitively think of as the shelf life of the universe? Now that you've thought of it, why couldn't it be (say) a thousand orders of magnitude higher?

Put more football on television! Show it on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, when viewers can actually watch.

For the target audience in question, of course he's actually right. On a larger scale, though... see my note about Americans and football two items up.

Aside From Money or Crime, This Story Contains Most of What's Wrong With Sports

Coach of old unbeaten team casts aspersions on legitimacy of new unbeaten team.

On the other hand, one of the few more egregious wastes of time than talking about "asterisks" is caring enough about them to take offense.

The FSBD Top 32: Week 9

Minor adjustments have resulted from Monday's Steelers-Ravens game. Paul's comment is pretty convincing but I don't feel the need to change that part of the poll, at least not in haste.

UPDATE: Minnesota's record (finally) fixed. This is exactly why one should use a time-saving device (say, a spreadsheet that would auto-update teams' records, previous week's ranks, and next week's opponents) instead of cutting, pasting, typing, etc.

I really want to agree with Brian's critique of the Vikings (I had them in the late 20s when mainstream sources had them in the mid teens) but the funny thing is, they've outscored their opponents. Compare to e.g. the Broncos.

Better yet, compare the Minnesota team itself to Baltimore. The Ravens have had a big reputation going back to when they neutralized Peyton Manning last January (and would have won a playoff game if they had ANY offense that day). They're still two slots ahead of the Vikings in this poll itself, but what exactly do they do better than Minnesota does? Adrian Peterson at this point is clearly better than Willis McGahee; right now the Vikings' defense is better, and while either Kyle Boller or circa-2007 Steve McNair is still probably better than Tavaris Jackson, is it that huge a difference?

32. St. Louis (0-8) (Last week: 32) Bye. (Week 10: at New Orleans)

31. Miami (0-8) (Last week: 31) Bye. (Week 10: vs. Buffalo)

30. San Francisco (2-6) (Last week: 30) Even when it was a one-point game the outcome seemed clear. (Week 10: at Seattle)

29. NY Jets (1-8) (Last week: 29) Bad home loss trumps bad road loss. (Week 10: bye)

28. Atlanta (2-6) (Last week: 28) Ugly, ugly game. (Week 10: at Carolina)

27. Oakland (2-6) (Last week: 26) That concludes our run of abysmal teams. (Week 10: vs. Chicago)

26. Cincinnati (2-6) (Last week: 25) By far the worst non-abysmal team in the NFL. (Week 10: at Baltimore)

25. Houston (4-5) (Last week: 27) The worst is over, I think. More upside than downside from here, especially as soon as Andre Johnson comes back. (Week 10: bye)

24. Carolina (4-4) (Last week: 21) Without their top QB and barely a pulse (1 of 2) (Week 10: vs. Atlanta)

23. Arizona (3-5) (Last week: 19) Without their top QB and barely a pulse (2 of 2) (Week 10: vs. Detroit)

22. Philadelphia (3-5) (Last week: 16) Fork in them? (1 of 2) (Week 10: at Washington)

21. Denver (3-5) (Last week: 15) Fork in them? (2 of 2) (Week 10: at Kansas City)

20. Buffalo (4-4) (Last week: 24) Their four losses: Routed at Pittsburgh and at New England; Monday night collapse vs. Dallas; and that buzzer-beating field goal in the same game where they had a player paralyzed. As of right this instant, there's a pretty bright line between the top 20 and the other 12. (Week 10: at Miami)

19. Kansas City (4-4) (Last week: 18) When the Bears beat them in Week 2, did you think these teams would end up in consecutive slots? (Week 10: vs. Denver)

18. Chicago (3-5) (Last week: 17) Bye. (Week 10: at Oakland)

17. Minnesota (3-5) (4-4)(Last week: 23) They say they key to championships is to run the ball and stop the run. This might be one of the worst teams imaginable that still accomplishes those two specific things so well. "Hi, my name is Adrian Peterson. I'll be very, very good for awhile." (Week 10: at Green Bay)

16. Seattle (4-4) (Last week: 12) What a flawed team. Still the likely NFC West champ, in a division where 7-9 might even be enough. (Week 10: vs. San Francisco)

15. Baltimore (4-4) (Last week: 11) TBA. (Week 10: vs. Cincinnati)

14. Cleveland (5-3) (Last week: 22) Need defense, and will have to step up on the road in the second half. Big rematch coming up. (Week 10: at Pittsburgh)

13. Washington (5-3) (Last week: 14) The two worst teams in the AFC East both took them to overtime. Admittedly they did win them both. (Week 10: vs. Philadelphia)

12. New Orleans (4-4) (Last week: 20) Momentum is sweet, and likely to continue. (Week 10: vs. St. Louis)

11. Tampa Bay (5-4) (Last week: 13) Righted the ship a bit. (Week 10: bye)

10. Jacksonville (5-3) (Last week: 9) I didn't expect the defense to be the problem. (Week 10: at Tennessee)

9. San Diego (4-4) (Last week: 6) Adrian Peterson outrushed LaDainian Tomlinson by 256. Of course you saw that coming. (Week 10: vs. Indianapolis)

8. Detroit (6-2) (Last week: 10) Now that was a dismantling. Eight seems impossibly high, especially given how crushing both losses were, yet no other team has a better claim to this spot. (Week 10: at Arizona)

7. Tennessee (6-2) (Last week: 8) Made it look easy. (Week 10: vs. Jacksonville)

6. NY Giants (6-2) (Last week: 7) Bye. (Week 10: vs. Dallas)

5. Pittsburgh (6-2) (Last week: 5) Boomer Esiason (on the radio coverage) is preemptively angry that ESPN et al might ask whether Ben should have still been in the game in the third quarter. (Week 10: vs. Cleveland)

4. Green Bay (7-1) (Last week: 4) Thanksgiving should be fun. (Week 10: vs. Minnesota)

3. Indianapolis (7-1) (Last week: 2) Better luck net time. (Week 10: at San Diego)

2. Dallas (7-1) (Last week: 3) It's not the Colts' loss so much as the Cowboys' own convincing win. (Week 10: at NY Giants)

1. New England (9-0) (Last week: 1) Well then. (Week 10: bye)

Raider Blackout Redux

This entry contained an error, ironic given that it claimed to be pointing out a sportswriter's error. In fact, the Raiders' blackout does result in CBS not showing an early game here. This map confirms it (no LaDainian (or Mewelde) for us), and Wikipedia explains further.

In this link I had misread the phrase "if the game is sold out" as "if the game is blacked out." That same article makes somewhat interesting reference to the NFL rules for secondary markets: Road games must be carried but home games are optional. The Sacramento CBS station drew lots of complaints after being forced to show Oakland at San Diego instead of New England at Dallas.

Do you think affiliates in that position (this notably also includes a CBS in Harrisburg, PA, that gets hosed whenever a Baltimore Ravens road game is on at the same time as a Steelers game) would run afoul of the NFL, or their network, if the ran a scroll explaining that NFL rules mandated which game they carried?

Don't Make Me Go to a F'g Sports Bar

I enjoy rooting against the Oakland Raiders. I dislike most of what they stand for, especially the desecration of what used to be a perfectly cromulent baseball venue. For years now Al Davis has been too much of a doddering fool to be remotely evil; as for the fans themselves, the whole Black Hole meme -- that I actually like, if only because it's all a glorious put-on. (Some guys wear costumes to the Coliseum, other guys wear remarkably similar costumes to the Castro, it's all good.)

In other words, I don't actually hate the Raiders with every fiber of my being. but I certainly good.

Who's On Your Composite Fantasy Football Team?

That is, of teams you've had in the past few seasons, which players have you ended up with most often (by design or otherwise)? A couple of these came up a post below, but "my" roster comes out (in part) something like:

QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Brian Westbrook
WR Plaxico
K David Akers

(Plaxico Burress is the player with the greatest gap between "how often people ought to refer to him by first name alone" and "how often they actually do.")

Despite their transcendent awesomeness, those are admittedly guys who get hurt a lot. (That big red "Q" is short for "Plaxico." It might even be part of QPlaxico's real name.)

There's no obvious reason for the Pennsylvania theme, though coming full circle with the post below this Pittsburgh has an entirely different archetype for its coaches than Philly.

Andy Reid's Children

This is just sad. Even though there's a case that blaming the father just lets adults-who-should-know-better off easier, what kind of father allows this to happen in his own home?

Within the confines of the NFL, I really like Andy Reid*. But stories like this make you wonder what kind of authority figure he is on the job.

*- This isn't "full disclosure" worthy but for no obvious reason my past few years worth of fantasy football teams have had more Eagles than you'd expect, and I've gotten more joy out of rooting for those specific players than you'd expect. (It's easy to see why I might become evangelical about the sheer greatness of Brian Westbrook, but David Akers? Why does he, of all kickers, make me infinitesimally happier when he's on any given roster?)

Raider Blackout Update

Likely, but not confirmed yet. The linked article does a good job of explaining why this matters but contains a terrible misunderstanding of NFL TV rules. ("(By the way, if the game is sold out, KPIX also would show the Chargers-Vikings early game - thanks to Byzantine NFL rules.)")

The author doesn't seem to realize that each week either CBS or Fox gets to show two games (more specifically we'll see SD@MIN no matter what), though as often as as a 4:05 (Eastern time) Raider or 49er game has pre-empted the doubleheader I can't blame the author. It's happened at least three times this year. (And at least four other times (four!) there's been a late game of local interest shown instead of the game that a vast majority of the nation got.)

I Will Not Have Trent Edwards Throwing to Braylon Edwards

...on my best FFL team. However, I might end up with Derek Anderson throwing to Braylon Edwards (not unlike real life) if a win-win deal can be reached with the guy who has both Anderson and Tom Brady.

(Much better QB situation than having Marc Bulger and Matt Schaub, or on the former's bye week replacing the latter with a Bills QB who's about to face Cincinnati, then replacing that guy with the actual Bills QB about to face Cincinnati. If Jauron hadn't been able to make up his mind, we might have had a Sage Rosenfels sighting.)

...and with an opposing viewpoint, Msrs. Supply Curve & Demand Curve

Aside from cherry-picked "Stat[s] of the Week," two of the biggest howlers in this week's Tuesday Morning Quarterback:

1. Aspects of the cable carriers' position are hard to fathom: NFL Network is a good product; don't the cable carriers want to offer viewers the best possible sports coverage? (When two paragraphs earlier he'd mentioned the relatively high price the NFL wants to charge.)

2. Frank Hawkins, the NFL's chief negotiator for media contracts, told me he already has heard of people who have subscribed to DirecTV "even though they can't receive the satellite signal, then put the antenna in the garage, just so they can qualify for Sunday Ticket on streaming video." Hawkins said that if Sunday Ticket does not go to cable in 2010, more might opt for this strategy. That sounds, fundamentally, ridiculous. If those who can't get the DirecTV satellite signal really are shelling out hundreds of dollars a year just to qualify for Sunday Ticket over the Internet, then consumers are willing to climb huge hurdles, and pay steep prices, to get a product the NFL continues to withhold from universal availability.

On the other hand, Easterbrook does recommend that readers "invest" the $30 price to have unlimited rights to NFL teams' radio broadcasts. He has "no complaint about Field Pass, the NFL's radio service, because it is available to everyone, or at least to everyone with Internet access" -- notwithstanding that a few paragraphs earlier he had mocked the idea of people with Internet access buying DirecTV for the NFL Sunday Ticket.

Have I Ever Told You Just How Much I Hate Gregg Easterbrook's Stats of the Week?

I hear that if you cherry-pick every team in NFL history that went at least 12-4 over the course of a single season, it all adds up to a staggering combined win-loss record.

Checking in on my Worst Fantasy Football Team

I laugh, and I cry, about how bad this team is relative to a typical fake team. (It's in a 14-team league but that doesn't excuse these depths.) Just Matt Millen levels of team assembly.

Vince Young: 42 yards passing, 11 yards rushing. ("And what did Drew Brees do?" "Post a 9:1 INT:TD ratio in his first four games, after which I made a foolish decision. Life goes on.")

Marques Colston: 85 yards, 3 TD (the only 3 touchdowns any of these guys got). Woo.

Mike Furrey: 44 yards. Good game by his 2007 standards.

LaDainian: 91 total yards, no TDs in his Steely McLovin debut.

Jason Wright: 26 total yards. Jamal Lewis got most of the touches.

Marcedes Lewis: Goose-egg. But it was Marcus Pollard's bye anyway.

Michael Robinson: 49 total yards. Frank Gore got most of the touches.

Kris Brown: FG and a PAT

NY Giants Defense: Stout as usual (9 fantasy points)

Healthy and on my bench: Selvin Young.

Injured and on my bench: Andre Johnson

On a bye and on my bench: Terrell Owens, Jerious Norwood, Leonard Weaver, Bobby Engram, Kurt Warner

I have five second-string running backs. (Six until dropping Jesse Chatman less than 24 hours before Ronnie Brown blew his knee out.)

In Defense of the Patriots

A Deadspin commenter chastised New England for going for it on fourth down with a 38-point lead, in field goal range. But if anything, I'd think of the FG attempt as the act of "running up the score."

With a lead that big, 3 more points makes close to zero difference, especially compared to taking another minute or two off the clock. (You don't have to score any more points to win but you do have to eat clock, or at least hang around until the clock hits zero. If you seriously think teams should kneel down at that point, then just put in a Mercy Rule.)

Colts-Patriots, NBC, etc.

Before this year, when was the last time New England and Indianapolis played a regular-season game on CBS?

On November 5, 2006, they played Sunday night on NBC.

On November 7, 2005, they played Monday night on ABC.

In September 2004 they opened the season Thursday night on ABC.

Was their 2003 game (38-34 Patriots, at Indianapolis, goal-line stand, by coincidence the same final score (reversed) as the 2007 AFC championship game) on CBS?

If you were wondering NBC has Dallas at Philadelphia next week (after nothing this week to avoid counter-scheduling the World Series) and Indianapolis at San Diego the week after. NBC's flex scheduling starts Week 11.

Week 9 late games: Seattle-Cleveland at 4:05; New England-Indianapolis and Houston-Oakland (please be a blackout!) at 4:15. Dallas-Philly on NBC, Baltimore-Pittsburgh Monday on ESPN.

Week 10 late games: Cincinnati-Baltimore at 4:05; Dallas-NY Giants, Chicago Oakland, and Detroit-Arizona at 4:15; Indianapolis-San Diego on NBC, San Francisco-Seattle on ESPN.

Week 11in theory has St. Louis-San Francisco and Washington-Dallas at 4:15 (Pittsburgh-NY Jets 4:05), with Chicago-Seattle late Sunday and Tennesseee-Denver Monday. If NBC hasn't already exercised its flex option yet, my prediction is they grab the NY Giants-Detroit game.

(Week 12's Green Bay at Detroit Thanksgiving tilt could also be incredibly good by Thanksgiving game standards, certainly given that the other two games that day are likely blowouts.)

Headline Template

[winning team nickname] [verb that means "defeat"] [losing team nickname] [preposition] [adjective, preferably weather-related] [home city name].

(Two straight Yahoo! Sports headlines follow that pattern.)

The FSBD Top 32: Week 8

Could change after Monday; Denver is more likely to move up or down than Green Bay.

An after-the-fact (but still Sunday) note that these pass the smell-test:

1. All but one of the top 10 teams are at least three games above .500. The exception is San Diego (4-3), which is on a roll after the tough early schedule (and terrible Week 4 loss to KC).

2. All but one of the 11-24 teams are within a game of .500 (hence within a game of each other). The exception is reigning NFC Champion Chicago at 3-5.

3. All but one of the bottom eight teams are at least three games below .500. The exception is Houston, at 3-5 but in a tailspin (and with an injured QB).

32. St. Louis (0-8) (Last week: 32) Welcome back S. Jackson! Er, just kidding. (Week 9: bye)

31. Miami (0-8) (Last week: 31) A good week for the NFL: the two best teams play each other, the two worst teams play nobody. (Week 9: bye)

30. San Francisco (2-5) (Last week: 30) I'm not entirely convinced that the 49ers could beat either team below them at a neutral site. More likely than not, but still. (Week 9: at Atlanta)

29. NY Jets (1-7) (Last week: 28) Kellen Clemens is no panacea. I get the impression this team is just unwatchable. (Week 9: vs. Washington)

28. Atlanta (1-6) (Last week: 29)Bye. (Week 9: vs. San Francisco)

27. Houston (3-5) (Last week: 26) Remember when they got off to that great start? Good times, especially when Simmons panicked about passing them up as a sleeper. This is the sort of franchise that, for lack of institutional history/memory, I don't think can recover well from such a terrible stretch. (Week 9: at Oakland)

26. Oakland (2-5) (Last week: 27) Points scored before the bye: 21, 20, 26, 35. After the bye: 14, 10, 9. (Week 9: vs. Houston)

25. Cincinnati (2-5) (Last week: 23) Marvin Lewis has never had a losing season as ahead coach. That streak is in big trouble. (Week 9: at Buffalo)

24. Buffalo (3-4) (Last week: 25) Edwards? Losman? Flutie? (Week 9: at Cincinnati)

23. Minnesota (3-4) (Last week: 19) Just when I became willing to not write them off. I suppose they could prove me wrong again, though. League's #1 rushing defense, meet LaDainian Tomlinson. (Week 9: vs. San Diego)

22. Cleveland (4-3) (Last week: 24) Finally a road win, if only against the worst team in the league. This is probably one of the last big gaps between me and any given other poll. A good game a week from now could go a long way towards my believing in their decency, but the next three games are difficult. (Week 9: vs. Seattle)

21. Carolina (4-3) (Last week: 19) Sure, this will look weird given that they beat both teams above them. But some weird quarterbacks were involved one game, and the other was a team that may have righted its ship. (Week 9: at Tennessee)

20. New Orleans (3-4) (Last week: 22) On the one hand the 49ers are putrid. On the other, three wins in a row, something to build on. Only Quinn Gray stands between them and .500. (Week 9: vs. Jacksonville)

19. Arizona (3-4) (Last week: 15) Some teams slip downward on their byes just because. (Week 9: at Tampa Bay)

18. Kansas City (4-3) (Last week: 21) Some teams float upward on their byes just because. It's misleading to claim that the sole criterion is whether I think Team A would beat Team B at a neutral site right now: in theory I could think that a circle of death of match-up exploitation exists. (Good old "Patriots own Indy, Colts own Denver, Broncos own New England.") But in this case it's clear as day to me (the moment I type this) that the Chiefs could beat the Cardinals, and that there's a clean break here. In any case, two straight big home games lie ahead. (Week 9: vs. Green Bay)

17. Chicago (3-5) (Last week: 13) Last four weeks: dramatic road win, home letdown, repeat the process. Must be maddening. (Week 9: bye)

16. Philadelphia (3-4) (Last week: 17) A desperately-needed road win. Would you think of the upcoming Cowboy game as must-win? (Week 9: vs. Dallas)

15. Denver (3-3) (Last week: 16) Could end up in a wide range of slots after tomorrow. Two of the most interesting (i.e. unknown quantity) teams in the league face each other a week from now. (Week 9: at Detroit)

14. Washington (4-3) (Last week: 14) These days, "at New England" = mulligan. Think they'll take some anger out on the Jets? (Week 9: at NY Jets)

13. Tampa Bay (4-4) (Last week: 10) They lost, at home, to a team quarterbacked by Quinn Gray. Now they're at .500 and injuries are catching up. (Week 9: vs. Arizona)

12. Seattle (4-3) (Last week: 12) Bye. (Week 9: at Cleveland)

11. Baltimore (4-3) (Last week: 11) Bye. I having a nagging feeling the Seahawks and Ravens are both overrated on this list. (Week 9: at Pittsburgh)

10. Detroit (5-2) (Last week: 20) Exactly the kind of leap that shouldn't happen in a calm, rational poll. But the arguments for moving any other team to this spot fail badly. In theory this results from a divisional road win against the defending NFC Champion, and not in a close game either. Also, of course, I was late to the party. (Week 9: vs. Denver)

9. Jacksonville (5-2) (Last week: 9) Interesting Week 10 rematch coming up, but first... (Week 9: at New Orleans)

8. Tennessee (5-2) (Last week: 8) The head-to-head comparison is very interesting: The Titans beat the Jaguars at Jacksonville. Both teams lost at home to the Colts (Tennessee kept it much closer). The Titans lost at Tampa Bay, where Jacksonville just won. On balance it's close but unambiguous, mainly because of the head-to-head result. (Week 9: vs. Carolina)

7. NY Giants (6-2) (Last week: 6) No end of amusement that the Brits booed them for running out the clock. (Week 9: bye)

6. San Diego (4-3) (Last week: 7) They didn't suffer a post-fire emotional let-down. (Week 9: at Minnesota)

5. Pittsburgh (5-2) (Last week: 5) Road wins in the division are underrated. (Week 9: vs. Baltimore)

4. Green Bay (5-1) (Last week: 4) Might fall after the Monday night game, very unlikely to rise. (Week 9: at Kansas City)

3. Dallas (6-1) (Last week: 3) Bye. (Week 9: at Philadelphia)

2. Indianapolis (7-0) (Last week: 2) I hear there's a big game coming up. (Week 9: vs. New England)

1. New England (8-0) (Last week: 1) So help me I thought the Redskins would cover. (Week 9: at Indianapolis)

Broadcaster Trivia

Without looking (or already happening to know): Guess who's going to London (at Fox's expense) to do play-by-play on the Giants-Dolphins game?

(I would have needed five guesses even given that Joe Buck is in Boston.)

The FSBD Top 32: Week 7

Colts, Jaguars to be updated after Monday (some teams around them may shift by one).

32. St. Louis (0-7) (Last week: 32) Marc Bulger also isn't who he used to be. (Week 8: vs. Cleveland)

31. Miami (0-7) (Last week: 31) Great job losing your best RB on a play that began with a 35-point deficit. (Week 8: vs. NY Giants at London)

30. San Francisco (2-4) (Last week: 29) For a team that started this year 2-0, this squad is terrible on both sides of the ball. (Week 8: vs. New Orleans)

29. Atlanta (1-6) (Last week: 30) Preposterous punt. (Week 8: bye)

28. NY Jets (1-6) (Last week: 27) Touchdown at the buzzer to make it look closer than it was. (Week 8: vs. Buffalo)

27. Oakland (2-4) (Last week: 28) Almost like a gatekeeper between the atrocious teams and the merely below-average. (Week 8: at Tennessee)

26. Houston (3-4) (Last week: 22) The Sage Rosenfels era almost brought us something awesome. If it continues, it might not continue well. Then again Norv Turner is on the opposite sideline, and I'd been letting the Chargers drift upward as though he didn't exist. (Week 8: at San Diego)

25. Buffalo (2-4) (Last week: 25) Still not as bad as people think, but now actually turning "not as bad as people think" into a win or two. (Week 8: at NY Jets)

24. Cleveland (3-3) (Last week: 24) Bye. (Week 8: at St. Louis)

23. Cincinnati (2-4) (Last week: 20) Won a game yet lost three notches, partly for falling behind at home to a bad team, partly because I'd underrated the Chiefs before. (Week 8: vs. Pittsburgh)

22. New Orleans (2-4) (Last week: 21) Won a game yet lost a notch. It's the "close game at home vs. the Falcons" rule. (Week 8: at San Francisco)

21. Kansas City (4-3) (Last week: 23) Hey, sole possession of first place in the AFC West! (Week 8: bye)

20. Detroit (4-2) (Last week: 26) I could see 8-8. Interesting test next week whether more than that is plausible. The game at Philly looks like more and more of an aberration (and not just the uniforms!). (Week 8: at Chicago)

19. Carolina (4-2) (Last week: 19) Bye. (Week 8: vs. Indianapolis)

18. Minnesota (3-3) (Last week: 18) Hint: Use Adrian Peterson more. (Week 8: vs. Philadelphia)

17. Philadelphia (2-4) (Last week: 13) Uncanny how they keep finding ways to give games away. (Week 8: at Minnesota)

16. Denver (3-3) (Last week: 17) Got it done at home. Interesting to see how the Rockies' hoopla affects them. (Week 8: vs. Green Bay)

15. Arizona (3-4) (Last week: 15) Didn't quite get it done on the road. A familiar story this season. (Week 8: bye)

14. Washington (4-2) (Last week: 16) Recap, first sentence: "In the final 30 seconds, the Arizona Cardinals used three quarterbacks, scored a touchdown, failed on a 2-point conversion, recovered an onside kick and barely -- just barely -- missed a 55-yard field goal." (Week 8: at New England)

13. Chicago (3-4) (Last week: 14) Nice drive! (Week 8: vs. Detroit)

12. Seattle (4-3) (Last week: 11) Life is hard: You walk all over an opponent yet fall a spot. That's just how bad the Rams are. (Week 8: bye)

11. Baltimore (4-3) (Last week: 6) "Only this high by default" = red flag. (Week 8: bye)

10. Tampa Bay (4-2) (Last week: 7) Before the season began I'd planned to take Detroit in this game in Barker's cut-throat league. Switching away from the Lions (and onto Oakland) was a mistake. (Week 8: vs. Jacksonville)

69. Jacksonville (4-2) (Last week: 10) Quinn Gray didn't fare well. (Week 8: at Tampa Bay)

98. Tennessee (4-2) (Last week: 9) Well sure, that's one way to win a road game in your division. In theory they should get docked for almost blowing a 25-point lead, but they recovered with aplomb, they had their backup quarterback in, etc. (Week 8: vs. Oakland)

87. San Diego (3-3) (Last week: 8) Bye. (Week 8: vs. Houston)

76. NY Giants (5-2) (Last week: 12) To be sure they demolished a bad team. But momentum matters in the NFL, as does Brandon Jacobs re-establishing himself. Another bad opponent coming up. (Week 8: "at" Miami (at London))

5. Pittsburgh (4-2) (Last week: 3) They needed that 12-play, six-minute drive to last about seven minutes. If you think they should be lower, ask yourself who gets this spot instead. (Week 8: at Cincinnati)

4. Green Bay (5-1) (Last week: 5) Bye. (Week 8: at Denver)

3. Dallas (6-1) (Last week: 4) Some odd coaching on both sides. (Week 8: bye)

2. Indianapolis (6-0) (Last week: 2) It'd be funny if they beat the Patriots twice this year and the Manning/Brady talking points completely swapped. (Week 8: at Carolina)

1. New England (7-0) (Last week: 1) More of the same. (Week 8: vs. Washington)

Coverage Maps

These always mesmerize me (in this case ABC's regional college football broadcasts). The station where I grew up (KTUL-Tulsa), where I spent seven young-adult years (WCVB-Boston), where I am now (KGO-San Francisco), and where my parents are (WLS-Chicago) will each get a different game from the four available.

Ironically(?) if I had all four games at my fingertips I'd probably choose none of the above.

This is an excellent graphic representation of "Pac-10 territory" and "Big-12 territory": It would truly capture the college football terrain if only there were some semi-decent SEC match-up in there (LSU-Tennessee or such?).

Lead-In Misdirection

I can't remember the last time I was fooled by a misdirection conceit in the lead-in to an article/essay, but it happened just now. How embarrassing.

(One of the least successful recent attempts was a NY Times story about an athlete who turned out to be a nine-year-old girl, but whose identity became obvious with the sidebar photo & caption that you couldn't have failed to notice before you started reading the text.)

Bowls vs. Championship: Choose Wisely

Even though columnists like LZ Granderson (link via TFTD) keep the 1A/1AA terminology for continuity's sake, I really like what the labels "Bowl Division" and "Championship Division" accomplish.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that it's logistically impossible to have a national championship independent of Bowl games. (I don't buy college hoops as a counterexample for many reasons, the most obvious of which is the lack of Bowls.)

Right now any team that wants to play for Bowl eligibility can do so (and give up a chance at any championship more legitimate than the Bowl Championship Series, which has unavoidable flaws); any team that wants to play for a true championship can also do so (and give up the big money involved in Bowls). Pick your poison.

Schedule Oddity

The Denver Broncos do not have any road games in October 2007. (Home, bye, home Sunday night, home Monday night.) After that, however, they make six road trips in eight weeks.

Pythagoras, Call Your Office

1. Tell the baseball stat geeks to stop using your name in a misleading fashion. (Predicting wins as a power ratio of run differential makes perfect sense. An even stronger form of that is the simple fact that teams rarely succeed by allowing more runs over a season than they scored. If the power in question is right around 2, well, that's nifty and stuff, but there's no intuitive reason why it would HAVE to be 2 (if it's actually more like 1.7ish), and calling it "Pythagorean" just causes everyone gratuitous confusion.)

2. Much more importantly, slap some sense into Gregg Easterbrook:
"An angled punt intended to go out of bounds will travel less distance than a punt boomed down the middle, but TMQ is guessing that if punters practiced deliberately kicking out of bounds, they could average putting the ball out of bounds 32 to 35 yards down the field, roughly the 2006 net."

Why would guesswork even be necessary? How far from the sideline is the hash mark? This is the kind of work that DOES deserve to be called "Pythagorean."

Oh, sweet [noun] it gets worse:
"Most New England long passes, and nearly all New England halfback flare passes, are drawn up so the receiver is directly in front of Tom Brady when he delivers the ball. This allows Brady to throw straight ahead, the most reliable sort of pass and one that is in the air for less time compared with sideways passing, deep outs and so on."

(emphasis added)

"In the air for less time" is a very fancy way to say "shorter," no?

Absurd Power Ranking of the Day

(By the way, the FSBD NFL Top 32 has a meta-purpose, a learning experience for myself: Getting optimal rankings is potentially quite time-consuming if not tedious, with a lot of hair-splitting. However, people who happen to get their work published on major web sites demonstrably don't bother to spend that time, and so the howlers on one random blogger's list aren't any worse than the howlers on a major portal.)

These Yahoo! guys both have the Cleveland Browns in the top 13. For what?

Three wins, all at home, one against a winless team and another against a team that we now know to be a paper tiger. A terrible, terrible home loss in Week 1, along with a loss at Oakland (another NFL dreg). (The New England game shouldn't affect them either way. I guess you could credit them a tiny bit for losing by "only" 17 at Foxboro.)

FFL Quick Wrap-Up

If my math is right, tonight Plaxico Burress got 10 points in old-school scoring systems (point per 20 yards, 6 per TD), compared to Jeremy Shockey's 3 points in the same system. I needed Plax to outscore Shockey by >4 points; I seem to have gotten it. 4-2

Like everyone else I've come to prefer the newfangled point-per-10-yards. In that kind of system, Jason Z. beat me 152 to [some number in the 70s]. That's better than 152 to 56 (before J. Norwood & Giants' defense), which in turn is better than losing by 100. Still, 2-4

Since Brandon Jacobs didn't have a monster game, I appear to have won 99.5 to 80.5 in the Coen league. I say "appear" because a week ago tonight, Nick Folk's game-winning FG also seemed to win the game for me, only for ESPN to make a Thursday scoring change to turn it into a tie. 2-3-1

And finally my "this team is loaded" ESPN team in a premium public league (the freebie team for their fantasy baseball woes): Will continue to lead the league in scoring but will fall to 3-3 after running into an Adrian Peterson buzz-saw.

I Can Has 3rd Down Role?

Mewelde more likely to be on the move.

Speaking of game theory, though, does anyone else think "In the aftermath of rookie running back Adrian Peterson's stunning performance Sunday against Chicago[,] Minnesota has dropped its demand for a third-round draft pick in exchange for backup running back Mewelde Moore" is a non sequitur?

The only reason it logically follows would involve the high transaction costs of moving NFL players around, finding replacement-level talent somewhere else, etc. I suppose I'll buy the theory that they have a learning curve, picking up the playbook and so on.

The headline I avoided (because it would sound like someone was giving a kitten away! - bite your tongue!) reminds me that there's a strong correlation between players associated with freedom cries and players whose first names complete the "Can we name our kid... ?" meme. (Erubiel was the very first one.)

Fun fact: The "Can we name our kid... ?" meme was exclusively for baseball players until we happened to have a TV on for this Monday night football game. Maybe in an alternate universe that game would go the other way and a year later we'd have a cat named Samkon, but I'd like to think better: Samkon isn't nearly as mellifluous a name as Mewelde.

The FSBD Top 32: Week 6

Rankings for NY Giants and Atlanta will probably change after Monday's game (and thus also rankings for some teams near them).

32. St. Louis (0-6) (Last week: 32) Gus Frerotte isn't what he used to be. (Week 7: at Seattle)

31. Miami (0-6) (Last week: 31) Yet another team that can't defend the Browns at Cleveland. But the Dolphins can't defend anyone else either. (Week 7: vs. New England)

30. Atlanta (2-4) (Last week: 27) That was a dismantling. Time of possession nearly 2:1. (Week 7: at New Orleans)

29. San Francisco (2-3) (Last week: 30) Bye. (Week 7: at NY Giants)

28. Oakland (2-3) (Last week: 26) They woke up LaDainian. (Week 7: vs. Kansas City)

27. NY Jets (1-5) (Last week: 20) Flat. How else to describe them? (Week 7: at Cincinnati)

26. Detroit (3-2) (Last week: 24) Bye. (Week 7: vs. Tampa Bay)

25. Buffalo (1-4) (Last week: 21) Bye. The surprising shift during their bye reflects my coming to agree with ZD that teams do need to covert close games to wins, especially at home. Meanwhile, The Onion is even less sanguine than I am. (Week 7: vs. Baltimore)

24. Cleveland (3-3) (Last week: 25) Still no defense but can still light it up against bad defense at home. (Week 7: bye)

23. Kansas City (3-3) (Last week: 28) Part of the corrective process here is giving a lot of credit to Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville. (Week 7: at Oakland)

22. Houston (3-3) (Last week: 19) It's hard to win without your receivers. (Week 7: vs. Tennessee)

21. New Orleans (1-4) (Last week: 23) Is it fair to say that the offensive line stopped not trying? (Week 7: vs. Atlanta)

20. Cincinnati (1-4) (Last week: 13) It's not the one game alone so much as a reality check that I'd drastically overrated them even based on what we knew before this weekend. (Week 7: vs. NY Jets)

19. Carolina (4-2) (Last week: 22) 4-2 must mean they're doing something right. Week 8: Peyton Manning vs. Vinny Testarverde? But first... (Week 7: bye)

18. Minnesota (3-2) (Last week: 29) It's not the one game alone so much as a mea culpa for egregiously underrating them even based on what we knew before this weekend. Nice to see they can score a lot after all. (Week 7: at Dallas)

17. Denver (2-3) (Last week: 18) Bye. Have you noticed the insane mobility the Broncos have shown in other people's polls? They weren't that good then, they're not that bad now. (Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh)

16. Washington (3-2) (Last week: 17) Tough road loss. (Week 7: vs. Arizona)

15. Arizona (3-3) (Last week: 12) I have no idea nor do you. (Same comment applies to the Bears.) (Week 7: at Washington)

14. Chicago (2-4) (Last week: 10) If you see this on Monday, they're probably keeping the Giants' seat warm. Very interesting game between disappointing(?) teams coming up. (Week 7: at Philadelphia)

13. Philadelphia (2-3) (Last week: 14) The gap between 11 and 12 is breathtaking. (Week 7: vs. Chicago)

12. NY Giants (3-2) (Last week: 16) Defense came roaring back, and now the offense is coming around.. (Week 7: vs. San Francisco)

11. Seattle (3-3) (Last week: 6) I know an ardent Seahawk fan. Twice in the past year I've been at a "party" (target audience = children) with him where Seattle happened to be playing football on the big screen. Both times they were getting inexplicably crushed. (Week 7: vs. St. Louis)

10. Jacksonville (4-1) (Last week: 16) I was so wrong about this team. In fact I was so wrong I bumped it onto the top 10 on a second look Monday night. (Week 7: vs. Indianapolis)

9. Tennessee (3-2) (Last week: 5) Watch Vince Young's health carefully. (Week 7: at Houston)

8. San Diego (3-3) (Last week: 11) I just traded Frank Gore and Randy Moss for LaDainian Tomlinson and Terrell Owens. I made the offer Tuesday and it was accepted minutes after the late games kicked off. The other guy still gets Tomlinson's four-touchdown game, and sticks me with both backs' weeks, but I'm still pretty happy about the timing. (Week 7: bye)

7. Tampa Bay (4-2) (Last week: 9) Overcoming injuries with aplomb. (Week 7: at Detroit)

6. Baltimore (4-2) (Last week: 8) "Only this high by default" team of the week. We'll learn a lot from their Monday games at Pittsburgh and vs. New England. (Week 7: at Buffalo)

5. Green Bay (5-1) (Last week: 7) If only they had a running game. (Week 7: bye)

4. Dallas (5-1) (Last week: 4) Didn't protect their house but did better than some people probably expected. (Week 7: vs. Minnesota)

3. Pittsburgh (4-1) (Last week: 3) Bye. (Week 7: at Denver)

2. Indianapolis (5-0 (Last week: 2) Bye. (Week 7: at Jacksonville)

1. New England (6-0) (Last week: 1) Toughest games left: at Indianapolis Week 9, at Baltimore Week 13, vs. Pittsburgh Week 14. (Week 7: at Miami)

FFL Roster Breakdown

It's been a few weeks. There's been some roster flux (especially replacing kickers and defenses on their bye weeks) and will be some more. But as it stands right now, my 66 total roster spots break down (no, I didn't spend any time today figuring this out; this was all yesterday in traffic):

7 AFC East
7 AFC North
12 AFC South
6 AFC West

18(!) NFC East
4 NFC North
7 NFC South
5 NFC West

Non-unique "players":
Selvin Young (3 teams)
Brian Westbrook (my two "good" teams)
Plaxico Burress (those same two "good" teams)
Correll Buckhalter (handcuffing Westbrook twice)
Nick Folk (half my kicking game)
Kris Brown (the other half)
NY Giants Defense (upcoming opponents: ATL, SF, MIA)
Jesse Chatman (2 teams, 0 lineups, one handcuff one keeper flyer)
Matt Schaub (meh)

HOU (4): Schaub[x2], Johnson, Brown[x2], Ryans (LB)
NYG (4): Ward, Burress[x2], Osi Umenyiora (DL), Giants Defense[x2]
PHI (4): McNabb, Westbrook[x2], Buckhalter[x2], Curtis
PIT (4): Roethlisberger, Parker, Ward, Miller
CLE (3): Lewis, Wright, Edwards
TEN (3): Young, White, Titans Defense
WAS (3): Portis, Betts, Moss
ATL (2): Norwood, White
CAR (2): Smith, Peppers
DAL (2): Folk[x2], Crayton
JAX (2): Jones-Drew, Taylor
MIA (2): Brown, Chatman[x2]
MIN (2): Moore, Rice
NYJ (2): Coles, Baker
TB (2): Galloway, Smith
ARI: Wilson (DB)
BUF: Lynch
DEN: Young[x3]
DET: Furrey
GB: Favre
IND: Keith
KC: Bowe
NE: Moss
NO: Colston
OAK: Howard (LB)
STL: Jackson, Leonard
SD: Gates
SF: Gore
SEA: Engram
BAL: none
CHI: none
CIN: none

Fun With Ranked Lists

So the Chargers unload on a lousy Denver team that can't play from behind, and I'm supposed to believe all their problems are behind them? Just one week ago, this was the team that caused Cleveland reader Dan L. to e-mail me just to ask, "Which personnel decision is going to be worse in the long run: A.J. Smith's choice to hire Norv Turner or Brent Bolthouse's decision to promote Heidi Montag?" Now they're fine?
--Bill Simmons

But notice his "Weekly Power Poll" sidebar, which has Denver ranked 28th (down from 23rd) and San Diego 7th (up from 14th). I say moving up to 7th from 14th implies some amount of relative "fine"ness.

The day I get around to showing how far teams moved up/down various people's "Power Polls" will that be a sign of too much time on my hands?

A Fine Human Being

This is the same guy I'm unwilling ever to have on any fantasy football league.

Mind, there are some wife-beaters whom I've had on fantasy baseball teams before, and others whom I've never had (that I remember) but wouldn't actively avoid.

Two Voices That Make My Head Asplode

I hope the guy who does voiceovers for Live 365.com house ads never meets the guy who does radio color commentary for Arizona Cardinals football (the latter is ex-NFL player Ron Wolfley; I have no idea who the former is).

The FSBD Top 32: Week 5

Rankings for Dallas and Buffalo changed after Monday's game.

32. St. Louis (0-5) (Last week: 32) Best winning chances: vs. Cleveland week 8, vs. Atlanta week 13. (Week 6: at Baltimore)

31. Miami (0-5) (Last week: 31) Almost a big road win. Horseshoes, hand grenades, etc. (Week 6: at Cleveland)

30. San Francisco (2-3) (Last week: 28) Alex Smith thinks he'll be back for Week 7. We'll see. (Week 6: bye)

29. Minnesota (2-2) (Last week: 30) Apparently I have the Vikings quite underrated compared to other sources. We'll see if they win some games accordingly. (Week 6: at Chicago)

28. Kansas City (2-3) (Last week: 27) They were the last play of the game away from being shut out at home. (Week 6: vs. Cincinnati)

27. Atlanta (2-3) (Last week: 29) Almost a nifty comeback on the road but Leftwich couldn't quite undo Harrington's damage. (Week 6: vs. NY Giants)

26. Oakland (2-2) (Last week: 26) Bye (as was Minnesota). Looking ahead, I guess this market won't get that Patriots-Cowboys showdown. (Week 6: at San Diego)

25. Cleveland (2-3) (Last week: 25) Visiting New England calls for a mulligan. (Week 6: vs. Miami)

24. Detroit (3-2) (Last week: 22) Ah, letdown. (Week 6: bye)

23. New Orleans (0-4) (Last week: 18) Still sinking fast (I'm well aware that on real ranking lists they cratered long ago). (Week 6: at Seattle)

22. Carolina (3-2) (Last week: 23) Meh. (Week 6: at Arizona)

21. Buffalo (1-4) (Last week: 24) Missed it by that much. Then again their whole touchdown offense was defense and returnss. (Week 6: bye)

20. NY Jets (1-4) (Last week: 16) Even if it's ostensibly a road game you shouldn't blow 10-point halftime leads in your own stadium.

19. Houston (3-2) (Last week: 17) Lucky to win on their kicker's leg, and in trouble unless/until they get their best receivers back. (Also, I'm cranky about needing to use Matt Schaub as a bye-week fill-in and hoping he'd do a lot better than he did.) (Week 6: at Jacksonville)

18. Denver (2-3) (Last week: 15) Beyond fugly. But the Selvin Young Era begins shortly. (Week 6: bye)

17. Washington (3-1) (Last week: 21) I wonder how many teams will annihilate the Lions this year once all is said and done. (Week 6: at Green Bay)

16. Jacksonville (3-1) (Last week: 20) Good road win against a bad team. (Week 6: vs. Houston)

15. NY Giants (3-2) (Last week: 19) Shh. (Week 6: at Atlanta)

14. Philadelphia (1-3) (Last week: 14) Bye. (Week 6: at NY Jets)

13. Cincinnati (1-3) (Last week: 11) Bye. (Week 6: at Kansas City)

12. Arizona (3-2) (Last week: 10) Well sure, that's one way to end the quarterback tandem. (Week 6: vs. Carolina)

11. San Diego (2-3) (Last week: 13) That was probably quite cathartic. (Week 6: vs. Oakland)

10. Chicago (2-3) (Last week: 12)That too. (Week 6: vs. Minnesota)

9. Tampa Bay (3-2) (Last week: 9) Lots of teams having trouble at Indianapolis this year. (Week 6: vs. Tennessee)

8. Baltimore (3-2) (Last week: 8) I'd be a lot happier with this slot if they'd won even remotely convincingly at SF. (Week 6: vs. St. Louis)

7. Green Bay (4-1) (Last week: 6) The funny thing is, I can't say I'm surprised. (Week 6: vs. Washington)

6. Seattle (3-2) (Last week: 5) Lots of teams having trouble at Pittsburgh this year. (Week 6: vs. New Orleans)

5. Tennessee (3-1) (Last week: 7) Oh how this reeks of default. They barely beat Atlanta at home, but what's funny is that the only team to really crush the Falcons was the Vikings. (Week 6: at Tampa Bay)

4. Dallas (5-0) (Last week: 2) Big showdown coming up, but they needed some luck to escape a trap game at Buffalo. (Week 6: vs. New England)

3. Pittsburgh (4-1) (Last week: 4) Convincing. (Week 6: bye)

2. Indianapolis (5-0) (Last week: 3) Got the job done, now will hope to get healthy. (Week 6: bye)

1. New England (5-0) (Last week: 1) I understand they needed some drama to cover the spread. (Week 6: at Dallas)

I Guess I Missed An Exciting Broadcast

So KNBR (main sports radio station around here) has two AM frequencies to play with: 680 (home of the Giants and 49ers) and 1050 (erstwhile home of the Raiders). Any national feed, e.g. Monday night football, will typically be on 1050.

All week the Division Series had been on 1050, so when I was idly curious who ESPN had covering the Phillies-Rockies series (how has nobody killed Steve Phillips yet? shouldn't there be a fatwa on him just for being who he is? it's radio and I could still see his scat-eating grin) I flipped to 1050, except that it was football. Stanford something, some other team some other score.

And that was as close as I got to any live partaking of this game.

(The last time U$C visited Berkeley -- the big 2005 game that turned into a blowout -- there was also a quiz tournament on the Berkeley campus that day. Despite a full week's worth of hype, I still wasn't sure as I exited 24 whether Cal had a home game that day. Obviously it would make a big difference for parking, and the question answered itself amazingly quickly.)

Lions [...] Christians [...] Punchline

"Since [Jon Kitna] signed a four-year, $11.5 million deal in March 2006, about 20 [Detroit] Lions have given their lives to Christ."
--ESPN Magazine (via this column)

Overexaggerated NCAA Shenanigans

When ESPN.com reported this story yesterday, the word "burglary" appeared in the headline. Strong words for an incident wherein a player pushed open a gate between him and his girlfriend's car at the impound lot -- then did nothing else (didn't even go through the gate!).

(The ESPN story had ads on the page including one for "Florida Gator ringtones": Seemed pretty absurd until I heard the five-note riff in my head and realized, yeah, that would make a great ringtone.)

mrow?

Tampa Bay inquires about Mewelde

I learned a week ago that somebody does not respond to her name when a voice on my computer says it. Or maybe she was just disgusted that Visanthe Shiancoe flat-out dropped a sure touchdown.

Open Letters to Football Players

(All of whom are on the only fantasy football team I have any money riding on.)

Dear Matt Leinart and Byron Leftwich,

It's probably my fault I had more confidence in you than your coaches did. Leinart as a keeper, especially, gave me the hubris to wait as long as possible to pick up the sleeper QB2 I'd had in mind all along. Leinart, I watched your play in that Monday night game and it was so bad I made that Wayne-for-McNabb trade offer on the spot. (I had wide receiver depth after all.) If you were wondering, my starting QB on McNabb's bye is a guy who went undrafted in 20 rounds -- fellow named Schaub.

--

Dear Hines Ward, Santana Moss, and DJ Hackett,

Did I mention my depth at wide receiver? Get healthy guys.

--

Dear Brian Leonard,

Funny thing: There's a backup running back in Pittsburgh with a very disgusting criminal history. That personal background singlehandedly swayed my decision never to draft him under any circumstances. Since I wanted to handcuff one of my starting RBs with my final pick, that left you. Sometimes things just work out.

--

Dear Julius Peppers,

I'm still patiently waiting. I haven't lost faith.

The FSBD NFL Top 32: Week 4

As mentioned before, the NFL.com scoreboard page has some very good highlight packages.

As initially posted, this refers only to the 30 teams who played Sunday: Will slot in New England and Cincinnati after their game.

32. St. Louis (0-4) (Last week: 27) Five of my bottom 10 from last week beat pretty good teams at home this week. One beat a bad team on the road (one was that bad team), one beat a supposedly great team on the road. That leaves a close loss at home to a good team and an annihilation. (Week 5: vs. Arizona)

31. Miami (0-4) (Last week: 26) Got trounced at home against a bad team. (Week 5: at Houston)

30. Minnesota (1-3) (Last week: 30) At least they hung tough. (Week 5: bye)

29. Atlanta (1-3) (Last week: 32) Nice win. We'll leave it at that. (Week 5: at Tennessee)

28. San Francisco (2-2) (Last week: 20) Two squeakers (one against my now #32), two convincing losses. Maybe #28 would be too low, but -- meaning no disrespect to Trent Dilfer -- he's not leading them anywhere, and a bunch of other bottom feeders showed signs of life this week. (Week 5: vs. Baltimore)

27. Kansas City (2-2) (Last week: 31) Shocking Chargers implosion, but the Chiefs have to get SOME credit, right? (Week 5: vs. Jacksonville)

26. Oakland (2-2) (Last week: 28) On one hand they're two bad breaks away from being undefeated. On the other, have they played ANY good opponents this year? (I realize the rest of the world will cite Denver.) (Week 5: bye)

25. Cleveland (2-2) (Last week: 29) Try telling someone after their week 1 debacle that they'd be a bad break away from 3-1. Reality is about to set in though. (Week 5: at New England)

24. Buffalo (1-3) (Last week: 24) They needed that win. They're still not as bad as some experts think they are. (Week 5: vs. Dallas)

23. Carolina (2-2) (Last week: 22) They've beaten St. Louis and Atlanta in close games. We learned this week that Houston (who routed them Week 2) isn't suddenly a powerhouse. (Week 5: at New Orleans)

22. Detroit (3-1) (Last week: 25) Nice comeback! Interesting Week 5 match-up against another team that everyone else will have ranked higher than I did. (Week 5: at Washington)

21. Washington (2-1) (Last week: 21) Bye. (Week 5: vs. Detroit)

20. Jacksonville (2-1) (Last week: 19) Bye. (Week 5: at Kansas City)

19. NY Giants (2-2) (Last week: 23) Hey, they can play some defense after all. (Week 5: vs. NY Jets)

18. New Orleans (0-3) (Last week: 15) This will look really goofy. But I think the teams who stepped up this week have plausible "we're better than New Orleans" cases (the experts will certainly agree), yet none of the myriad teams who lost this week (after having been ranked higher) have plausible "we're [we've become] worse than New Orleans" cases. (Week 5: vs. Carolina)

17. Houston (2-2) (Last week: 14) I did mention they were at risk of a let-down. Think they'll play Week 5 angry? (Week 5: vs. Miami)

16. NY Jets (1-3) (Last week: 13) Remember, I don't think Buffalo's all that bad. (Week 5: "at" NY Giants)

15. Denver (2-2) (Last week: 17) We didn't learn much about the Broncos at Indy (didn't get blown out, didn't hold tight) but just enough that, yeah, they'd beat New Orleans. Given what happened to the teams right above them on this particular list, maybe the experts are right about Denver but by default? (Week 5: vs. San Diego)

14. Philadelphia (1-3) (Last week: 12) I have no idea anymore. I'm going to chalk this up to the lack of Brian Westbrook and assume Westbrook is back by Week 6. Your mileage may vary. (Week 5: bye)

13. San Diego (1-3) (Last week: 7) They schedule got easier, for all the good it did them. (Week 5: at Denver)

12. Chicago (1-3) (Last week: 11) Just... wow. (Week 5: at Green Bay)

11. Cincinnati (1-3) (Last week: 8) Meh. I glanced at the box score and took a wild guess, putting them behind the upstarts and ahead of the teams that took fugly Sunday losses. (Week 5: bye)

10. Arizona (2-2) (Last week: 16) They've beaten two very, very good teams at home, almost beaten yet another good team on the road, and thrown a game away under bizarre circumstances Week 1. But do I really think they'd beat Chicago at a neutral site right now? Well, stop and consider that LAST YEAR they came within fluke of beating the Super Bowl-bound Bears (at home, granted). (Week 5: at St. Louis)

9. Tampa Bay (3-1) (Last week: 18) I hate rankings wherein teams make massive leaps and falls from week to week. But the Buccaneers took care of business this week, when so many teams immediately below them failed catastrophically to do so. And really, their only loss was at a place with a tremendous home field advantage. Interesting test coming up. (Week 5: at Indianapolis)

8. Baltimore (2-2) (Last week: 8) They're not as good as some people think, but in a league where so much of the top half of my board took weird losses... (Week 5: at San Francisco)

7. Tennessee (2-1) (Last week: 9) Bye. (Week 5: vs. Atlanta)

6. Green Bay (4-0) (Last week: 10) I predict every other ranking list will put the undefeated teams ahead of any teams who've lost. But the Packers' first two opponents are still an enigma; what we learned this week about San Diego isn't good at all; and we already knew Minnesota's bad. Big game coming up though. (Week 5: vs. Chicago)

5. Seattle (3-1) (Last week: 6) Convincing road wins are always good. Interesting match-up of teams a bad game in the desert away from perfection. (Week 5: at Pittsburgh)

4. Pittsburgh (3-1) (Last week: 2) Bill Simmons correctly pointed out Friday that Arizona should have had an advantage being coached by a former Pittsburgh assistant who'd know so much about the Steelers. (Week 5: vs. Seattle)

3. Indianapolis (4-0) (Last week: 4) Against an excellent pass defense they got big yards on the ground and pulled away at the end. (Week 5: vs. Tampa Bay)

2. Dallas (4-0) (Last week: 3) They made an easy game look easy. (Week 5: at Buffalo)

1. New England (4-0) (Last week: 1) Routine. (Week 5: vs. Cleveland)

Spartyfreude

After yesterday's Mike Gundy post I e-mailed my favorite Michigan fan because I suddenly wondered how similar Oklahoma's in-state college football rivalry is to Michigan's. I learned that his reference to Sparty is specifically to the concept that some MSU fans are happier with Michigan losses than with their own team's wins.

As it happens, I think I'm actually happier about this game that about any Oklahoma State football win I can think of. (Except of course this one.)

Some thoughts about that 2001 upset (and the glorious font of knowledge that is Wikipedia): Rashaun Woods is in the CFL now. Quentin Griffin (OU running back) "had most recently been with the Hamburg Sea Devils of the now defunct NFL Europa." You don't need me to tell you that Tatum Bell (like Quentin Griffin, probably best known for being part of the Denver Broncos' running back carousel) is in Detroit now, or that Josh Fields is a Chicago White Sock.

(Did you know Fields leads American League rookies in home runs? Shame he can't get on base often enough to be of offensive value.)

Shouldn't Texas A&M's football coach be fired on the spot?

Selling inside information a great way to compromise the integrity of the game and embezzle, all in one fell swoop.

Do "Oklahoma State yahoos" Even Exist?

"The mistake is to think Gundy's supporters are simply Oklahoma State yahoos blinded by orange and black loyalty. "
--awkward phrase from this ESPN.com column

Maybe for basketball. (There's an entire contingent of us who still have fond memories of Bryant Reeves as a seemingly good player, and can easily picture a hard-fought game in which Reeves and Greg Ostertag were the two best players on the court. We also prefer to remember Eddie Sutton at his best; I understand some Kentucky fans' mileage may vary.) But as football goes, unless you have formative memories that involve back to back years of Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders, rooting for Oklahoma State generally involves being a student there (voluntarily spending four years in Stillwater), an alumnus, the relative of an alumnus, or at the very least somebody living in Oklahoma who's just sick of the cult status of Sooner football.

In any case, watch Mike Gundy's (what does it say that I almost wrote "Mike Van Gundy"?) post-game press conference from this past Saturday: By now you can easily find it on your favorite sports web site or video site. I still don't know where I stand on it (hence not mentioning it until now) but if nothing else, it's a tremendous display of righteous anger. Anyone who aspires to act, or to speak in public, can learn a lot from that performance.

My first impression is that college students -- amateurs by NCAA definition -- don't deserve character assassination. As Gene W. puts it: "I think you get the benefit of the doubt until you start receiving paychecks, not scholarships." (Yes, if you've followed recent Big 12 football, an in-state rivalry punchline writes itself.)

On the other hand, I think some college boosters want to have it both ways, to have their sport be big-time yet also go to absurd lengths to keep the "amateur" facade. I want to be holier-than-thou and think of most OSU fans as amiable people with things in perspective -- and yet this is the same team that took millions of dollars from T. Boone Pickens to name a stadium after him and spend money on whatever college football teams spend money on.

Paraphrasing Gundy's own rant, I think 3/4ths of his rant is inaccurate, in that he focuses so much on the parent-child relationship. His players may be amateurs, but they're adults, especially the 21-year-olds. By describing them as children he makes the same mistake that people who ask "Would you send your kid to war?" make. (I presume that when 18-year-olds enlist, the signature on their paperwork is their own and not their parents'.)

(Incidentally, you can get a Mike Gundy e-card.)

Benchmarking the FSBD NFL Top 32

Rather than waste time adding things team by team to my own ranking post, I put data from The Sporting News, both Yahoo! rankers, ESPN, and Football Outsiders into a spreadsheet and pasted that data to the extended entry (I hope it's not too ugly).

On balance I stand by the teams that I "underrated," yet the teams I "overrated" include some head-scratchers. This seems to also mean I have a bunch of teams one slot or two too low.

Teams I like better than the experts:
NY Jets: (I have them 13th, human experts generally agree on early 20s, FO data puts them 30th.) I (mostly) stand by my rating. They almost won at Baltimore (in fairness so did Arizona) and did beat Miami. They were destroyed versus New England but under dubious circumstances. Maybe I've overemphasized their 2006 results (rather than 2006 intrinsic performance) but there's no way they're not in the top 20.

New Orleans: (I have them 15th, human experts generally agree on mid-20s, FO data puts them dead last.) It looks like I'm just being stubborn, showing inertia, and/or overcompensating against the risk of ratings whiplash.

Cincinnati: (I have them 8th, human experts generally agree on late teens, FO data puts them 16th.) What was I thinking?

San Diego: (I have them 7th, human experts generally agree on a 9-13 range, FO data puts them 25th.) I'll stand by this one. It'll be interesting to see when FO starts adjusting for opponent strength (but should I start adjusting for Norv?).

Buffalo: (I have them 24th, all but one human expert has them in the bottom three, FO data puts them 31st.) I want to stand by this, since they weren't going to win at Pittsburgh or at New England, and yet it still takes two teams to produce a good butt-kicking.

Teams I rank lower than the experts:
Minnesota: (I have them 30th, human experts generally agree on mid-20s, FO data puts them 10th(!).) FO's problem is the lack of opponent adjustment. Not sure what the deal is with the human experts.

Jacksonville: (I have them 19th, human experts generally agree on 8th-10th, FO data puts them 15th.) The human experts are crazy, a combination of "what have you done for me lately?" ratings whiplash and absurd overrating of Denver. Speaking of whom...

Denver: (I have them 17th, human experts generally agree on 8th-12th, FO data puts them 9th.) This team is two fluky special teams plays away from being 0-3! (And against Buffalo and Oakland (at home!) at that.)

Carolina: (I have them 22nd, one expert has them 21st, others in the top half, FO data puts them 18th.) What do the people who put them in the top 12 see that I don't? An average team destroyed them at home, and they've eked out road wins against -- not just bad teams, but teams these same experts identify as bottom-four caliber.

Detroit: (I have them 25th, everyone including FO has a consensus 17-20 range) Everyone else overreacted to their being 2-0 from close wins against bad opponents.

Rank FSBD TSN Y1 Y2 ESPN FO
1 NE NE NE NE NE NE
2 PIT IND IND IND IND PIT
3 DAL PIT BAL DAL DAL DAL
4 IND DAL PIT PIT PIT IND
5 BAL BAL DAL BAL BAL TB
6 SEA GB GB CHI GB PHI
7 SD TEN SEA GB SEA GB
8 CIN HOU JAX TEN DEN BAL
9 TEN JAX PHI SD SD DEN
10 GB DEN SD JAX JAX MIN
11 CHI SEA CHI DEN TEN TEN
12 PHI CAR DEN SEA CAR HOU
13 NYJ SD SF HOU CHI ARI
14 HOU CHI HOU WAS WAS SEA
15 NO WAS TEN CAR SF JAX
16 ARI SF ARI CIN PHI CIN
17 DEN DET CIN SF HOU WAS
18 TB TB DET PHI CIN CAR
19 JAX CIN TB TB TB DET
20 SF PHI NO DET DET MIA
21 WAS NYG CAR NYJ NYJ CLE
22 CAR MIN NYJ MIN ARI KC
23 NYG ARI WAS NYG NYG NYG
24 BUF NYJ OAK NO OAK SF
25 DET NO BUF ARI MIN SD
26 MIA OAK KC CLE NO ATL
27 STL CLE MIN MIA CLE CHI
28 OAK KC CLE KC KC OAK
29 CLE STL NYG OAK BUF STL
30 MIN BUF MIA STL STL NYJ
31 KC MIA STL ATL MIA BUF
32 ATL ATL ATL BUF ATL NO

Team FSBD TSN Y1 Y2 ESPN FO Their AVG My Diff
NYJ 13 24 22 21 21 30 23.6 10.6
NO 15 25 20 24 26 32 25.4 10.4
CIN 8 19 17 16 18 16 17.2 9.2
SD 7 13 10 9 9 25 13.2 6.2
BUF 24 30 25 32 29 31 29.4 5.4
SEA 6 11 7 12 7 14 10.2 4.2
ARI 16 23 16 25 22 13 19.8 3.8
CHI 11 14 11 6 13 27 14.2 3.2
STL 27 29 31 30 30 29 29.8 2.8
PHI 12 20 9 18 16 6 13.8 1.8
MIA 26 31 30 27 31 20 27.8 1.8
TEN 9 7 15 8 11 11 10.4 1.4
PIT 2 3 4 4 4 2 3.4 1.4
NYG 23 21 29 23 23 23 23.8 0.8
DAL 3 4 5 3 3 3 3.6 0.6
BAL 5 5 3 5 5 8 5.2 0.2
NE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
HOU 14 8 14 13 17 12 12.8 -1.2
ATL 32 32 32 31 32 26 30.6 -1.4
IND 4 2 2 2 2 4 2.4 -1.6
OAK 28 26 24 29 24 28 26.2 -1.8
TB 18 18 19 19 19 5 16 -2
SF 20 16 13 17 15 24 17 -3
CLE 29 27 28 26 27 21 25.8 -3.2
GB 10 6 6 7 6 7 6.4 -3.6
WAS 21 15 23 14 14 17 16.6 -4.4
KC 31 28 26 28 28 22 26.4 -4.6
DET 25 17 18 20 20 19 18.8 -6.2
CAR 22 12 21 15 12 18 15.6 -6.4
DEN 17 10 12 11 8 9 10 -7
JAX 19 9 8 10 10 15 10.4 -8.6
MIN 30 22 27 22 25 10 21.2 -8.8

Fantasy Football by the Numbers

170.55: Record-setting Week 3 point total of some guy in Jason Z's league (on Yahoo!).

118.70: Second-best point total in that league. (Guess which team he faced?)

59.15: My point total in that league (third-lowest of 14). And yet I won.

40: Points accrued, in ESPN's default scoring format, by not only Brian Westbrook but also Ronnie Brown. I managed to lose a game despite owning both of them (I very wisely benched Brown in favor of the sporadically reanimated corpse of Jamal Lewis).

The FSBD NFL Top 32: Week 3

As mentioned before, the NFL.com scoreboard page has some very good highlight packages.

As initially posted, this refers only to the 30 teams who played Sunday: Will slot in Tennessee and New Orleans after their game.

32. Atlanta (0-3) (Last week: 31) Not all winless teams are terrible and not all terrible teams are winless, but I presume this will be a unanimous choice. (Next week: vs. Houston)

31. Kansas City (1-2) (Last week: 32) Minnesota transitivity aside, I think a neutral-site Falcons-Chiefs game would be a tossup. A painfully boring tossup. (Week 4: at San Diego)

30. Minnesota (1-2) (Last week: 30) Everyone else will rank them behind the Chiefs based on head-to-head. But a 3-point home victory against an evenly matched team is nothing.

29. Cleveland (1-2) (Last week: 27) Week 2 was a fluke. (Week 4: vs. Baltimore)

28. Oakland (1-2) (Last week: 29) The student has become the master! (Week 4: at Miami)

27. St. Louis (0-3) (Last week: 23) Isn't Week 3 a bit too early to just quit like that? (Week 4: at Dallas)

26. Miami (0-3) (Last week: 30) Yes, I'd take them over the Rams at a neutral site for being the team less likely to give up. (Week 4: vs. Oakland)

25. Detroit (2-1) (Last week: 25) What's funny is that the Eagles' game really didn't teach us much, despite how major media will overreact to it to overcompensate for previous overreaction. (Week 4: vs. Chicago)

24. Buffalo (0-3) (Last week: 22) These days, we learn nothing new about a team that visits New England. The major web sites have seriously underrated this bad-but-not-terrible team, though losing their QB won't help change that perception. (Week 4: vs. NY Jets)

23. NY Giants (1-2) (Last week: 26) Nice road win to get off the mat.

22. Carolina (2-1) (Last week: 20) Yes, they were on the road, but they nearly lost to the worst team in the league. (Week 4: vs. Tampa Bay)

21. Washington (2-1) (Last week: 19) Yes, they're a goal line stand away from being 3-0, but the loss was at home to a bad team. (Week 4: bye)

20. San Francisco (2-1) (Last week: 16) And the hype starts to die down. (Week 4: vs. Seattle)

19. Jacksonville (2-1) (Last week: 24) Biggest surprise of Week 3. (Week 4: bye)

18. Tampa Bay (2-1) (Last week: 21) Demolished a bad team at home, a sign that they're, at minimum, a passable wild card contender. (Week 4: at Carolina)

17. Denver (2-1) (Last week: 13) Is this too harsh an adjustment (given that I'd already ranked the Broncos far lower than most sites)? They've beaten two bad teams on last-minute field goals and taken a terrible home loss. They still have yet to face a plausible playoff team. (Week 4: at Indianapolis)

16. Arizona (1-2) (Last week: 17) So far they've lost to a bad team on the road on a fluke, beaten a good team at home a fluke, and rallied with their backup quarterback to nearly beat a good team on the road (hence the slight up-tick). (Week 4: vs. Pittsburgh)

15. New Orleans (0-3) (Last week: 11) This team is starting to remind me of the 2002 Chicago Bears (the team that went 4-12 after the previous year's random 13-3). (Week 4: bye)

14. Houston (2-1) (Last week: 18) With or without Andre Johnson they're for real. That said they're at risk for a letdown. (Week 4: at Atlanta)

13. NY Jets (1-2) (Last week: 14) The game against Miami shouldn't have been so close. (Week 4: at Buffalo)

12. Philadelphia (1-2) (Last week: 15) They enjoyed a nice rebound game. (Week 4: at NY Giants)

11. Chicago (1-2) (Last week: 8) The worst thing they could do is panic, or overreact. But they could use a QB upgrade -- and a nice rebound game. (Week 4: at Detroit)

10. Green Bay (3-0) (Last week: 12) Momentum is great but I think home field advantage affected both the Packers' and Bengals' week 3 games. At a neutral site I still do think the Bengals have a slight advantage. (Week 4: at Minnesota)

9. Tennessee (2-1) (Last week: 10) I got nothing. (Week 4: bye)

8. Cincinnati (1-2) (Last week: 9) Given their defensive reputation, not getting blown out at Seattle is actually new information. Interesting test coming up. (Week 4: vs. New England)

7. San Diego (1-2) (Last week: 5) The schedule gets easier, and the Chargers should be angry now. (Week 4: vs. Kansas City)

6. Seattle (2-1) (Last week: 7) You don't know who the fifth best team is either. In fact, you'll notice I changed my mind and flipped the Seahawks and Ravnes after Sunday's post. Both teams should have destroyed the weak Bengals defense but didn't. The difference is Baltimore was on the road and isn't an offense-first team anyway. (Week 4: at San Francisco)

5. Baltimore (2-1) (Last week: 6) Kurt Warner shouldn't have made it so close at the end. (Week 4: at Cleveland)

4. Indianapolis (3-0) (Last week: 3) Their toughest remaining road games are Baltimore and San Diego; Pittsburgh's are Cincinnati, New England, and Baltimore. (Week 4: vs. Denver)

3. Dallas (3-0) (Last week: 4) That's a statement game. (Week 4: vs. St. Louis)

2. Pittsburgh (3-0) (Last week: 2) They haven't really been tested but their wins have been convincing. (Week 4: at Arizona)

1. New England (3-0) (Last week: 1) If I gambled, I would have taken Buffalo and the points. Shows what I know. (Week 4: at Cincinnati)

Week 3 FFL Sit/Start Adventures

"Nobody cares" [etc.]

P.S. Dear Washington Redskins,

Even in short yardage one of your running backs is (if healthy, as he seems to be) considerably better than your other one. Sticking with your inferior back with the game on the [goal] line is a good way to lose. As are the pass plays on both first and second down. Seriously, WTH?

Faced with game-day decisions I started Brian Westbrook in both relevant leagues but, for the same two teams, sat Plaxico Burress. Turns out "start" would have been the right decision for them both.

In both Burress leagues I "un-benched" someone, reversing a previous decision: L. Coles played WR after all (along with Joey Galloway) and did fine (turns out Galloway "should have" sat). Maurice J-D played flex after all (with both Braylon Edwards and Santana Moss at WR) and killed me for the third week in a row.

It would have never occurred to me to start Kevin Curtis, despite his being my (now) fourth-best wide receiver in a league that starts three WR, where the trade for Donovan McNabb is the reason Curtis defaulted up to #4. I obviously won't bench Steve Smith, and Santana Moss was arguably facing an even more porous defense than Curtis was. Curtis did out-produce Hines Ward... by a little bit...

Frivolous NFL Stat Question with a Gratuitous Racial Component

What are the {career, single-season, single-game} records for most passing yards on balls thrown by a specific black man and caught by a specific white teammate?

Oklahoma State Football

Always entertaining. 35-28 at the half seems about right.

Meanwhile Chad points out to me that my actual alma mater just played its first home night game. (My graduate alma mater dropped football while I was there.)

Getting back to my roots, Tulsa's true hometown team had a nice little barn-burner a week ago (34-31 at the half) but recently got destroyed.

The thing about comparing Oklahoma State to the University of Tulsa is that aside from the Big 12 being more prestigious than the WAC Conference USA, OSU is a peer/foil to OU and Tulsa isn't.

While we're here, transitivity of the day:
Toledo's only win this year is against Iowa State. Iowa State's only win this year is against Iowa. Iowa's only win this year is against Syracuse (and a rout at that). Syracuse's only win is against (formerly) 18th-ranked Louisville.

DeShawn Wynn Fact of the Day

What you might not have known about Yahoo! Fantasy Football's Pickup of the Week:
After he was drafted by the Packers, Wynn denied reports that he was suspended for talking on his cell phone while the team was waiting to run out on the field at the Peach Bowl, saying the suspension was for a "parking decal" incident.
--Lake County News-Sun

I'm in a league where somebody picked up Wynn ten days ago.

The FSBD NFL Top 32: Week 2

As mentioned before, the NFL.com scoreboard page has some very good highlight packages.

As initially posted, this refers only to the 30 teams who played Sunday: Will slot in Philadelphia and Washington after their game. (In theory that game could affect one's assessment of Green Bay or Miami, but I doubt it.) If you read this before that, don't forget mentally to add 1 (or 2) to a non-elite team's rank as appropriate.

I slotted in PHI & WAS this (Tuesday) morning and just now (Tuesday evening) added rankings from Yahoo! (two sets!), ESPN, and Football Outsiders (DVOA). Until just now I hadn't even looked at anyone else's ratings.

32. Kansas City (0-2) (Last week: 31) They sort of get kudos for averting a blowout at Chicago, but there's no team you can honestly claim is worse. (Week 3: vs. Minnesota) Yahoo! 30, 30; ESPN 31; FO 28

31. Atlanta (0-2) (Last week: 30) No team other than the Chiefs is worse. (Week 3: vs. Carolina) Yahoo! 32, 32; ESPN 32; FO 27

30. Miami (0-2) (Last week: 27) I read somewhere before the season began about how terrible the Dolphins' O-line was. Naturally it comes out as "Trent Green stinks" and/or "Ronnie Brown stinks." (Week 3: at NY Jets) Yahoo! 28, 26; ESPN 28; FO 23

29. Oakland (0-2) (Last week: 29) They were jobbed. They also had no business being in overtime with quarterbacking so bad. (Week 3: vs. Cleveland) Yahoo! 31, 31; ESPN 30; FO 24

28. Minnesota (1-1) (Last week: 25) Did either team actually want that game? (Week 3: at Kansas City) Yahoo! 24, 22; ESPN 22; FO 11

27. Cleveland (1-1) (Last week: 32) How will they follow it up? (Week 3: at Oakland) Yahoo! 25, 25; ESPN 26; FO 26

26. NY Giants (0-2) (Last week: 22) Giving up 40 points a game is no way to win no matter how healthy your offense is. Incidentally, the second half of Fox's upcoming NFL double-header is terrible. (Week 3: at Washington) Yahoo! 26, 27; ESPN 27; FO 29

25. Detroit (2-0) (Last week: 24) Well look who's undefeated! (Week 3: at Philadelphia) Yahoo! 16, 17; ESPN 18; FO 8

24. Jacksonville (1-1) (Last week: 18) Trailing at home to Atlanta entering the fourth quarter? (Week 3: at Denver) Yahoo! 18, 19; ESPN 17; FO 17

23. St. Louis (0-2) (Last week: 21) Look who's 0-2 at home, despite two halftime leads, in large part because they can't hang on to the football? (Week 3: at Tampa Bay) Yahoo! 29, 28; ESPN 25; FO 16

22. Buffalo (0-2) (Last week: 19) On the plus side the held Pittsburgh without a touchdown for awhile. They're about to be 0-3, yet not nearly as bad as people will think they are. (Week 3: at New England) Yahoo! 23, 29; ESPN 29; FO 30

21. Tampa Bay (2-0) (Last week: 28) Last week I claimed "we know they're bad." Not so fast? (Week 3: vs. St. Louis) Yahoo! 19, 23; ESPN 23; FO 13

20. Carolina (1-1) (Last week: 13) Think about just how much Steve Smith carried them on his back -- yet they still lost soundly at home. (Week 3: at Atlanta) Yahoo! 21, 16; ESPN 16; FO 22

19. Washington (2-0) (Last week: 26) I still don't see it. Maybe I'm dead wrong about this team and they'll just keep rising. They could be undefeated after Week 5, yet might still miss the playoffs. (Week 3: vs. NY Giants) Yahoo! 13, 10; ESPN 14; FO 10

18. Houston (2-0) (Last week: 23) "It's going to kill me if the Texans emerge as the 2007 Sleeper and I didn't pick them just because I stumbled across a Houston Chronicle article and their coach and GM didn't seem confident enough about the season. I'm an idiot." --Bill Simmons (Week 3: vs. Indianapolis) Yahoo! 11, 13; ESPN 11; FO 4

17. Arizona (1-1) (Last week: 20) Nice win. Maybe they'll gel after all, but that's still a big maybe. Two interesting questions: How does beating a good team at home compare to beating a bad team on the road? What does narrowly losing on the road say about how you'd do at a neutral site vs. the same opponent? At this point ARI and SF are a coin flip. Both seem likely to lose big in the third week. (Week 3: at Baltimore) Yahoo! 14, 24; ESPN 21; FO 12

16. San Francisco (2-0) (Last week: 17) They showed something on the road, notwithstanding that the opposing coach gave the game away with a terrible decision. (Week 3: at Pittsburgh) Yahoo! 10, 12; ESPN 10; FO 21

15. Philadelphia (0-2) (Last week: 11) More cognitive dissonance. Part of the problem: Who is supposed to be the Eagles' best WR? Kevin Curtis? (Week 3: vs. Detroit) Yahoo! 27, 21; ESPN 20; FO 20

14. NY Jets (0-2) (Last week: 16) Yes, they moved up despite losing. I'm quite confident they would beat the 49ers at a neutral site. This set of rankings isn't about what teams have already accomplished (the standings page itself does a fine job of that). (Week 3: vs. Miami) Yahoo! 22, 20; ESPN 24; FO 31

13. Denver (2-0) (Last week: 14) An average team that has come away with two incredibly lucky wins against bad teams. (Week 3: vs. Jacksonville) Yahoo! 4, 9; ESPN 8; FO 6

12. Green Bay (2-0) (Last week: 15) Yes, I do think New Orleans would beat Green Bay at a neutral site even the way both teams are going now. The Packers have a very interesting test coming up. (Week 3: vs. San Diego) Yahoo! 9, 11; ESPN 12; FO 9

11. New Orleans (0-2) (Last week: 8) The Saints' 2006 versus 2007 is just cognitive dissonance. I'm actively avoiding overreaction to two games, even though both were utter blowouts. Monday night vs. Tennessee, at home, becomes insanely important to stop the carnage. (Week 3: vs. Tennessee) Yahoo! 20, 18; ESPN 19; FO 32

10. Tennessee (1-1) (Last week: 12) Is this too much credit to Indianapolis that a team could lose at home yet drift up in the ratings a bit? (Week 3: at New Orleans) Yahoo! 12, 15; ESPN 15; FO 19

9. Cincinnati (1-1) (Last week: 7) They have what you might call a weakness. (Week 3: at Seattle) Yahoo! 15, 7; ESPN 13; FO 15

8. Chicago (1-1) (Last week: 10) Took the lead against Kansas City and didn't do much after that. But if Derek Anderson could torch the Bengals, so could Grossman. (Week 3: vs. Dallas) Yahoo! 6, 4; ESPN 6; FO 18

7. Seattle (1-1) (Last week: 4) Bad: trailing by 17 points to Arizona. Good: Fighting back to at least tie it on the road, and also knowing that the week 1 opponent is better than previously thought. (Week 3: vs. Cincinnati) Yahoo! 17, 14; ESPN 9; FO 14

6. Baltimore (1-1) (Last week: 9) Ideally the sixth best team in the league wouldn't need an end zone interception to hold on against the Jets' backup quarterback at home. (Week 3: vs. Arizona) Yahoo! 3, 8; ESPN 7; FO 7

5. San Diego (1-1) (Last week: 5) The schedule will get easier soon. (Week 3: at Green Bay) Yahoo! 5, 5; ESPN 4; FO 25

4. Dallas (2-0) (Last week: 6) Offense continues to impress against bad(?) opponents. In theory this means I think the Cowboys would be the Chargers at a neutral site right now, to say nothing of teams 6 onward. I just buy those premise, many at the 51-49 to 55-45 level. (Week 3: at Chicago) Yahoo! 7, 3; ESPN 3; FO 3

3. Indianapolis (2-0) (Last week: 2) Escaped with an important division road win, now on to a surprisingly meaningful division road game. (Week 3: at Houston) Yahoo! 2, 2; ESPN 2; FO 5

2. Pittsburgh (2-0) (Last week: 3) Doesn't Cleveland's shootout win make the Steelers' defense, in hindsight, all the more impressive? (Week 3: vs. San Francisco) Yahoo! 8, 6; ESPN 5; FO 2

1. New England (2-0) (Last week: 1) Another dominant performance. (Week 3: vs. Buffalo) Yahoo! 1, 1; ESPN 1; FO 1

One Reason Why I Tend to Avoid Televised Football

I like the premise of the "More Taste League" ads but really, John C. McGinley had nothing better to do?

UPDATE: On the plus side, I've seen four touchdowns so far (Frank Gore in the broadcast; Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Plaxico Burress in studio updates) and all four help one fantasy team or another.

How Many NFL Head Coaches Are Ripe Bastards?

It depends, of course, on how you define "ripe bastard." By any reasonable standard Bill Belichick qualifies, as does Mike Shanahan. (If you have no idea who Shanahan is, or no idea why I'd make this claim, yet are interested in learning more, the main problem is Denver's dive-for-the-legs blocking schemes, which are borderline infractions but more importantly risk severe injuries to the other team.)

The latter is a blessing in disguise for me: I grew up rooting for the Denver Broncos, felt the disappointment of the Super Bowl losses, final felt the joy of rooting for a team that won one -- and then another! But seeing and understanding how Shanahan operates was a small part of my moving beyond any emotional attachment to the team. (I'd still like to see them win, as a mental connection to how happy their past victories made me, but not enough to actually (say) watch them when they're on TV here, as they were a weekend ago and will be tomorrow.)

For that matter, how many of baseball's powers-that-be are ripe bastards? I hate to admit this but Billy Beane is right up there by all accounts. (Incidentally, the most damning symptom of Beane's personality is his consistent use of players' first names when he addresses the media. I can't tell you how disrespectful that seems to me, intended or not. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville head coach, committed the same insult when he talked about cutting Byron Leftwich.)

It saddens me a little to see sports figureheads as bad actors (especially on "our side"), but given what's at stake would you expect anything different? (Nate's comments to the Patriots spying posts have been right on about the "pot odds," though I think the problems created by punitive forfeiture are far worse than the problems we have as it stands.) These people's careers depend on winning at all costs nearly any cost.

Luckily there's still just enough good character, and talent and hard work rising above, that I don't think sports are fundamentally broken, just somewhat flawed in ways that we should try to fix but will never completely succeed. And maybe this will come off as soulless but if all else fails, I still consider myself entertained, certainly to the point of being worth whatever time I do spend following MLB, the NFL, etc.

Sometimes I'm even tempted to be smug about the limits of my fandom, about not (figuratively) living and dying with a team. My belief that "it's only a game" has a snobbish component similar to Richard Dawkins's atheism -- the big difference being that Dawkins doesn't (as far as I know) turn around and go to church every Sunday and participate in pot luck suppers and/or other congregational events.

(If I ever did become a Dawkins-style [anti-]evangelist blowhard, my biggest (second biggest?) focus would be high school football. Can you think of any other activity that generates so much opportunity cost and deadweight loss without anyone seeming to acknowledge, much less do anything about, how much waste is involved? Not that there's anything useful to do, since the phenomenon results mostly from personal choices and what makes people happy -- with the distinct exception of ridiculous decisions about where to spend taxpayers' money. Speaking of which, the other crusade in my top two would be -- I'd like to think already is -- to stop the corporate welfare that causes idiotic cities to spend taxpayer money giving stadiums to wealthy owners.)

One last thought: I'm a lot less inclined to rain moral condemnation on what sports figures do on the field than I am what they do to other human beings off the field, specifically the ones that bullied their classmates as kids or beat their wives as "adults." But then the world is full of bullies and wife-beaters, most of whom I happen to have no reason to know their name.

A San Diego-New Orleans Super Bowl Would Sort of Keep A Trend Going

(But Denver-New Orleans would do an even better job of it.)

About 20 months ago I got a brief mention in Tuesday Morning Quarterback for pointing out this trend:

In both the 2005 and 2006 seasons, New Orleans and Tampa Bay had non-conference road games against (i.e. Fox's two chances to broadcast) the previous year's AFC champion; Oakland and San Diego had non-conference road games against (i.e. CBS's two chances to broadcast) the NFC champion.

Following that trend I predicted that Super Bowl XLI would be {Houston or Indianapolis} vs. {Green Bay or Minnesota}. A weaker version of that prediction would be AFC South vs. NFC North. You'll notice Indianapolis actually did make it; that their opponent was Chicago means that AFC West teams still played the reigning NFC champ for the third year in a row, just with the home-road assignments reversed. (i.e. Oakland and San Diego hosted Chicago instead of visiting)

In 2008, New Orleans and Tampa Bay have their AFC road games at Denver and Kansas City. (And home games against Oakland and San Diego.) Conversely, of course, Oakland and San Diego visit New Orleans and Tampa Bay (and host Atlanta and Carolina).

So my "weak" prediction: Super Bowl XLII = AFC West vs. NFC South.

My stronger prediction: {Denver or KC} vs. {New Orleans or Tampa Bay}

(Also known, given how bad the other two are this year, as Denver vs. New Orleans.)

"Team X" IS NOT "Your Team"

"All week, I almost felt like I did something wrong just because I rooted for these guys."
--you know who about you know whom

Ah, the flip side of years worth of feeling personally validated for having the good fortune to root for a winner.

"You can't disown your team just because it does something sleazy, just like you can't disown a close family member for doing something sleazy."

I couldn't disagree more. This statement represents 90% of what's wrong with sports fans these days. (Ironically, sanctimonious witch hunts are the other 10%.)

NFL TV Maps: Week 2

As mentioned before. you should bookmark this site if you're interested.

Week 2 highlights include the eight hot-and-humid teams all facing each other (Atlanta at Jacksonville, New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Dallas at Miami, Houston at Carolina).

If you're keeping track of blackouts, the first non-sellout (i.e. local TV blackout) of the season is in Jacksonville.

Patriots: The Punishment Did Fit the Crime

Straight from ESPN's front page (no link yet):

Belichick Fined; Pats Lose Pick

The NFL slapped Bill Belichick with a maximum fine of $500,000 Thursday night; fined the Pats $250,000 and will take away their 2008 first-round draft choice if they reach the playoffs; or second- and third-round picks if they do not qualify for the playoffs.

They couldn't have done this any better.

Speaking of ESPN, their "Featured Comment" (under "Fan Favorites," lower right corner of the front page) saddens me on two levels:

1. The featured comment is almost never anything insightful or edifying.

2. Yet it's at least as good as anything ever said on a TV/radio sports talk show.

UPDATE: some slimy quotes from Belichick here.

"I apologize to the Kraft family and every person directly or indirectly associated with the New England Patriots for the embarrassment, distraction and penalty my mistake caused." By "mistake," of course, he refers to getting caught.

"We have never used sideline video to obtain a competitive advantage while the game was in progress." Of course not: We can't break it down that quickly. But check out our record the second or third time we face a team in a given season.

Four Fantasy Teams, Five Distinct Eagles, Zero Colts

(One trade.)

This treats the Philadelphia team defense as one "distinct Eagle," as per mainstream fantasy football.

CONTEST: Name Gregg Easterbrook!

I finally realized what bothered me about the TMQ Challenge within this column.

"But though suns, planets and galaxies have names -- no one has named the universe. The universe is the biggest structure possible, the sum of everything. Yet it's nameless. Thus the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Challenge: Name the universe!"

Why?

Things with proper names have them because it's useful to distinguish them from other things of the same type. There are four bounds on this basic premise involving things that are very familiar (my chair doesn't need a name to distinguish it from other chairs), unknown, very numerous (who would bother to name grains of sand?), or singular.

Is there some other universe from which we need to distinguish our own? If so, doesn't "our universe" (or just "reality") suffice? Giving the universe some other name is pointlessly trivial, like asking monotheists to name their deity.

(Are we so afflicted that we need the comfort of naming the universe to make it less terrifying?)

A plausible response is that TMQ Challenges are pointlessly trivial almost by definition. So why not do him one better? "Gregg Easterbrook" is a decent name (his mother surely thinks so), but it lacks pizazz. Meanwhile, "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" or "TMQ" more properly names what he writes than who he is.

So... what name best captures the essence of the person presently known as Gregg Easterbrook?

UPDATE: Doris Day is already spoken for.

"Cheating"

Odd Volokh Conspiracy thread about the Patriots' videotaping kerfuffle. One especially notable quote:

"If they didn't need to cheat to win, then they shouldn't have cheated. A forfeit is perfectly appropriate. The NCAA and UEFA are two obvious examples where overt cheating has led to forfeits."
--someone named Justin

Where do you draw the line between "cheating" and simple infraction?

"If they didn't need to commit holding to win, they they shouldn't have committed holding."

"If they didn't need to rough the passer to win, then they shouldn't have roughed the passer."

I presume the NFL will sanction the Patriots and if the punishment is something like a lost draft pick (3rd round? 2nd?) then the punishment plausibly fits the crime. (How do you figure out what exact pick "fits the crime" here?)

The upshot of this is, one rarely sees football fans attach moral condemnation to players who draw a lot of penalty flags. (I scoff at the Raiders' franchise history, but that's snobbery/mockery rather than moral castigation.)

I suspect the baseball steroid discussions would be a lot less cantankerous if there were more consensus that the penalties for positive tests "fit the crime." But you'll notice that the acrimony is never about who fails tests in the present. Instead -- OMFG, look who bought what in 2003!

(The people most likely to get outraged have short attention spans, though: It's been a long time since I saw someone rant about Gary Matthews, Jr.)

Oh, getting back to the quote above: NCAA and FIFA (I realize he wrote "UEFA" and I know little or nothing about UEFA in particular) are, among other things, laughingstocks for their own levels of corruption and caprice.

The FSBD NFL Top 32

Inspired by Mark's collegiate top 10, and before I look at the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings...

(By the way, if you didn't know that NFL.com has video highlights linked from the scoreboard page, you should. The audio is all from the relevant team's radio broadcast.)

32. Cleveland (0-1). All you need to know is that punt where they committed four offensive fouls, got off a bad snap, and kicked it 15 yards down field.

31. Kansas City (0-1). They played Houston and showed nothing.

30. Atlanta (0-1). Joey Harrington sort of threw two touchdown passes. Seriously, he's nobody's savior.

29. Oakland (0-1). At home against a bad team, they gave the game away.

28. Tampa Bay (0-1). Should get some credit for keeping it close, but that "credit" is only because we know they're bad.

27. Miami (0-1). Ditto.

26. Washington (1-0). At home against the Dolphins you shouldn't need overtime.

25. Minnesota (1-0). Take away the gift interception returns and it's a generic home victory against a terrible opponent.

24. Detroit (1-0). Nice gut-check on the road (OK, it was only Oakland). I almost defaulted them even higher until remembering their recent history.

23. Houston (1-0). They might be better or worse than this but it's impossible to tell given the non-test they faced.

22. NY Giants (0-1). Should their offensive display impress us? After the injuries is it moot?

21. St. Louis (0-1). They were cruising into the third quarter when S. Jackson gave the game away. Even so, at home, a better team would recover from all that.

20. Arizona (0-1). Even before the collapse at the end of the game... this is the passing game everyone hyped?

19. Buffalo (0-1). Despite the injury/tragedy, bear in mind that they had this won until Denver's special teams heroics.

18. Jacksonville (0-1). After Tennessee ran all over them how did they keep the game so close?

17. San Francisco (1-0). Dramatic win. Still not nearly as talented as the bandwagon thinks.

16. NY Jets (0-1). This is probably too low, but we can't attribute that blowout (at home!) entirely to the Patriots being so good.

15. Green Bay (1-0). For what it's worth, the Eagles' radio guys believe Philadelphia gave this game away. I had the 7th to 15th teams in a jumble but the Packers seem to be the least talented in the pack.

14. Denver (1-0). Their record will exceed their talent.

13. Carolina (1-0). I really have no sense of where to slot them.

12. Tennessee (1-0). Vince Young has won a bunch of games in a row, none of them convincingly.

11. Philadelphia (0-1). Very good team who lost a game they probably should have won; ranked below some teams who lost games they should have lost.

10. Chicago (0-1). They "should have lost," and they made a good offense look bad, but their own offense looked atrocious.

9. Baltimore (0-1). It's hard to beat a good team on the road on Monday night. I think at a neutral site, a week from now, the Ravens would probably beat the Bears; the Saints would probably beat the Ravens; and the Bengals would probably beat the Saints (barely above 50% in all cases).

8. New Orleans (0-1). They "should have lost," but that badly?

7. Cincinnati (1-0). They won a game they should have won (because they were at home), albeit vs. a good opponent.

6. Dallas (1-0). Great show on offense at least. Here by default.

5. San Diego (1-0). They have to be better than they looked (against admittedly a very good defense), right?

4. Seattle (1-0). Took care of business at home vs. a bad team. Also here by default.

3. Pittsburgh (1-0). They completely overwhelmed a very bad team on the road.

2. Indianapolis (1-0). They completely overwhelmed a very good team at home.

1. New England (1-0). They completely overwhelmed a very good team on the road.

Boston, Driver

Did you realize that street names for GHB include "George Home Boy"? (It took me several seconds to realize this was just like a good acrophobia play.)

The St. Petersburg Times says so, and also reports that police think wide receiver David Boston was on GHB when he was found asleep behind the wheel. (I had a bad quasi-dyslexic reaction to the URL of that link.)

Four years ago I was in this 16-team quiz-bowl fantasy football league where my third to fifth picks went to wide receivers, of whom the first two were David Boston and Donald Driver. This wasn't intentional but "Boston Drivers" became a nifty resulting team name. Ironically, the WR I got in the fifth round worked out a lot better than the other two.

(But why was he available in the fifth round? He'd already had a very good 2002 season especially for a second-year guy. I'm sure this draft was in 2003, though, because I already lived in Concord at the time.)

UPDATE: Yahoo! still has draft results, even though it pretends not to. (The "Draft Results" page shows all player names as empty but with hyper-links to the correct player pages. My picks that year, in order, after the jump.

1-5. Clinton Portis (RB-DEN)
2-12. Trung Canidate(!) (RB-WAS)
3-5. David Boston (WR-SD)
4-12. Donald Driver (WR-GB)
5-5. Chad Johnson (WR-CIN)
6-12. Randy McMichael (TE-MIA)
7-5. Tommy Maddox (QB-PIT)
8-12. Kevan Barlow (RB-SF)
9-5. LaMont Jordan (RB-NYJ)
10-12. Olindo Mare (K-MIA)
11-5. Joey Harrington (QB-DET)
12-12. (no hyperlink - maybe a team defense?)
13-5. (no hyperlink - maybe another team defense?)
14-12. Lamont Brightful (DB-BAL)*
15-5. Kendrick Clancy (DT-PIT)*
16-12. J.J. Stokes (WR-JAX)
17-5. Frank Sanders (WR-BAL)
18-12. Rickey Dudley (TE-TB)
19-5. Mike Hollis (K-NYG)

*- I'd completely forgotten this league used not only a team defense but also two IDP, with some weird counterintuitive formula about which IDP were any good.

One of These Injuries Is Not Like The Other Three

Wow: Copying and pasting from the "Recent Injuries & Transactions" widget on Yahoo!'s NFL page:

RECENT INJURIES & TRANSACTIONS
9/9 K. Everett, BUF, TE Spine - Day-to-Day
V. Fox, WAS, S Groin - Day-to-Day
O. Umenyiora, NYG, DE Leg - Day-to-Day
C. Williams, TAM, RB Bruised ribs - Day-to-Day
View All Injuries » | View All Transactions »

I'd just finished reading this story and I'd have to call "Day-to-Day" a slight understatement.

Bad Omen of the Week

'"This win is not about me," Tomlin said. "This is the story of the 2007 Steelers." And it began the way other seasons have, with a romp over the Browns [...]'
--AP

The last time Pittsburgh began the season against Cleveland was 1999, the first year of the Browns' rebirth. The Steelers did win, 43-0 -- but finished the seaosn 6-10.

As for Cleveland's own recent franchise history of NFL season openers:
2006 - lost vs. New Orleans, 19-14
2005 - lost by two touchdowns vs. Cincinnati
2004 - beat Baltimore, 20-3
2003 - lost to Indianapolis in a 9-6
2002 - lost to Kansas City, 40-39, when Dwayne Rudd tossed his helmet prematurely (yes, that was five years ago)
2001 - lost to Seattle, 9-6
2000 - lost to Jacksonville, 27-7
1999 - see above

Only the 1999 game (and maybe the 2000 game) really fit the AP writer's conceit.

Dan Dierdorf's Tenure Has Begun Poorly

Schadenfreude led me to learn just now that Dierdorf is the new figurehead of The International Wolverine Conspiracy.

I predict that this thread becomes the second pity-party in as many weeks (that both threads begin with a U$C cheesecake photo is just a freaky coincidence).

I'm actually impressed by the degree to which this community of sports fans has rallied around the man they call Yostal. They're all mensches (the most supportive comments have actually come from women), yet here I am snarking at it all.

More Silly FFL Aggregation

The teams I have this year include 66 roster spots. On the drive in to work today I tried to think of all 66 players (actually 58 distinct, three of which are team defenses): The last one to come to mind was Jamal Lewis (RB4).

I have zero Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals(!), Dallas Cowboys, or Kansas City Chiefs; at least one each from the other 28 teams.

6 of the 66 roster spots are Denver Broncos, but those are just three distinct players. (Three times I bought into the Selvin Young sleeper hype, and twice Jason Elam's track record was enough for me to grab him from among interchangeable non-elite kickers.)

Teams from which I've rostered four distinct "players":
PHILADELPHIA - Brian Westbrook (x2), Kevin Curtis, David Akers, Eagles' Defense
PITTSBURGH - Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Heath Miller, Hines Ward
ST. LOUIS - Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Brian Leonard, Isaac Bruce

Most represented division: AFC South (11 roster spots, 10 players), despite only one Colt.

Least represented division: AFC East (6 roster spots, 5 players)

The Implicit "Guys I Like" Team

Players on more than one of my FFL team (first # is teams on which he'll usually start, second # is total team count):

Brian Westbrook (2/2)
Plaxico Burress (2/2)
Jason Elam (2/2)
Selvin Young (-/3)
Matt Schaub (-/2)
Santana Moss (-/2)
Jesse Chatman (-/2)

Handcuffs (same real team, same fantasy team, same position, bold means he'll usually start):
St. Louis RB (Steven Jackson, Brian Leonard)
Tennessee RB (LenDale White, Chris Henry)
Washington RB (Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts)
Miami RB (Ronnie Brown, Jesse Chatman)
Jacksonville RB (Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor)

I actually spent a few minutes putting a nifty color-coded depth chart together across the four teams.

You Know It's Some Sort of Keeper League When Mr. Irrelevant Is Michael Vick

(and it's September 2007)

So last night I had my final FFL draft of 2007. The league is on Yahoo! but thankfully the draft was off-line, so I didn't know anything about the Yahoo! meltdown until reading the linked-to entry.

Anyhow, 14-team league, keeper scheme where if you draft a guy in Round N Year 0 then you can keep him for a round (N-Y^2) pick Year Y.

Draft recap copied and pasted from Yahoo!, kept players in bold.

1. (14) Frank Gore RB
2. (15) Carnell Williams RB
3. (42) Randy Moss WR
4. (43) Andre Johnson WR
5. (70) Jerious Norwood RB
6. (71) Drew Brees QB
7. (98) Marques Colston WR
8. (99) Rex Grossman QB
9. (126) Mike Furrey WR
10. (127) Vince Young QB
11. (154) Jesse Chatman RB
12. (155) Selvin Young RB
13. (182) Marcus Pollard TE
14. (183) Carolina DEF
15. (210) Jason Elam K
16. (211) Troy Williamson WR

Picks that made me happy: Randy Moss and Andre Johnson both available rounds 3-4.

Pick that made me unhappy: So help me, Cadillac was the best available RB at that spot.

Pick that probably mystifies you: Yes, when I grabbed Rex Grossman I already had the two QBs I'd kept. But they happen both to have Week 4 byes, and I didn't like anyone else on the board, and in a 14-team league benefiting from QB scarcity is actually plausible.

(Strategic notion: If I'm contending, maybe trade Vince Young for upgrades; if I'm out of it, maybe trade Brees for keepage.)

Agonizing decision: the R16 sleeper, which came down to two South Carolina Gamecock WRs now on the Vikings, one of whom I'd never heard of until doing due diligence on the other.

Disturbing Images

That's probably Jake Plummer's face.

That's definitely John Clayton's face.

The moral of this story is that airlines provide blankets for a reason; the moral of the moral, however, is that you shouldn't use those blankets unless you absolutely need to.

2007 NFL TV Maps

Bookmark this if you'd find it interesting.

Listing the broadcaster is a most excellent addition!

I Don't Watch Regular-Season Football

This is why. Midway through the article I briefly lost my will to live.

If somebody gave me a free big-screen HDTV, a free DirecTV subscription (with reliable reception), and free Sunday Ticket package, I'd probably watch either the "eight games split-screen" channel or the red zone channel. With the sound down. I would be unlikely to invite friends over, other than -- well, you know who you are, and I don't think the commute would work well for you.

In any case, the better you understand why the link was beyond painful to read, the better you understand why Deadspin exists.

Yahoo! Makes FFL Draft Recaps As Easy As Copy-and-Paste

Someone pointed out that the previous season I'd auto-drafted my way to a championship -- which is misleading in through 12 weeks the team was 6-6 with the league's third-worst points per week. It squeaked into the playoffs, then S. Jackson and M. Harrison and R. Dayne(!!) decided to take over.

Twelve teams, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, R/W, TE, K, Def, five bench slots.

1. (11) Brian Westbrook RB
2. (14) Maurice Jones-Drew RB
3. (35) Marshawn Lynch RB
4. (38) Marc Bulger QB
5. (59) Plaxico Burress WR
6. (62) Fred Taylor RB
7. (83) Braylon Edwards WR
8. (86) Santana Moss WR
9. (107) Selvin Young RB
10. (110) Isaac Bruce WR
11. (131) Heath Miller TE
12. (134) Matt Schaub QB
13. (155) Oakland DEF
14. (158) David Akers K

I don't plan to make a habit of drafting players in the sixth round whom I have no intention of ever starting.

Win or Lose

Michigan has played some incredibly exciting football games in the last few years.

I will do my best to resist Wolverine Schadenfreude... but will fail at it.

P.S. Given that NCAA Division 1 has both a "Football Championship Subdivision" and a "Football Bowl Subdivision," shouldn't everyone who wants a college football playoff shut up and recognize that one already exists? It's not the Championship Subdivision's fault that the bowl system is a cash cow.

How Does Keith Olbermann Get From Point A to Point B?

You'd think someone whose living focuses on punditry would be good at making a cogent argument. Even if their living focused on political punditry you'd still expect them to think clearly and express their thoughts clearly, even if they're opining about something that has nothing to do with Republicans, Democrats, etc.

For some reason, though, famous political talking heads seem to have a terrible time with making intelligent arguments about football (of all things). First there was Rush Limbaugh's infamous claim that the press overrated Donovan McNabb because people wanted to see black quarterbacks succeed. Now here's Keith Olbermann claiming that fringe NFL players are worse off than prison inmates.

Yes, his particular point is limited to notorious criminals. But let's do a thought experiment: Would you rather be on a playing field where tens of thousands of people will boo you and other football players will hit you hard now and then? Or would you rather be incarcerated, where [...]. Is it even a hard question?

The funny thing is that neither Limbaugh's commentary nor Olbermann's required any specialized football knowledge (or any specialized football knowledge to realize why it was so drastically off-the-mark). If somebody can't put a coherent argument together in that context, then shouldn't we discount their political rantings accordingly? (That rhetorical question applies to both Limbaugh and Olbermannn.)

FFL: Other Draft Phenomena

Maybe these mean something, given that everyone had either paid money for their team (or happened to do ESPN Fantasy Baseball and get the "we're sorry" freebie), maybe the sample size is too small.

Running backs were 16 of the first 17 picks. Peyton Manning went #9, then 18-21 were Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Carson Palmer, and Chad Johnson (so a Bengal bookend combo for the LaDainian team).

Round 3 quarterbacks: Drew Brees, Tom Brady
Round 4 QBs: Marc Bulger, Donavan McNabb (back-to-back, immediately after Marion Barber), and Tony Romo (by a guy from Texas).

Round 16 of 16 included three K's, one D, zero TE, and six skill position players(!).

I Never Previously Associated Fantasy Football Drafts with Spontaneity

When ESPN messed up the first week of their 2007 fantasy baseball they gave every affected owner a free "prize-eligible" fantasy football team. That is, instead of paying [some amount of money] for a 1-in-10 shot at [some swag] I was given that opportunity for free, as soon as I bothered to join a league etc.

The neat thing about ESPN Fantasy Football these days is the Life Draft Lobby, which does include Prize Eligible leagues. At 3:26 p.m. I realized my wife wouldn't be home for awhile. At 3:27 I joined a league with a 3:30 p.m. scheduled draft. At 3:30 there were only nine owners, so we got pushed back five minutes. At 3:35 there were ten owners. At 4:48 we'd finished a 16-round draft.

QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, K, Def, seven bench, I drafted 8th/13th/28th/33rd/etc.

1. Brian Westbrook (RB-PHI)
2. Ronnie Brown (RB-MIA)
3. Clinton Portis (RB-WAS)
4. Antonio Gates (TE-SD)
5. Jamal Lewis (RB-CLE)
6. Plaxico Burress (WR-NYG)
7. Laveranues Coles (WR-NYJ)
8. Joey Galloway (WR-TB)
9. Ladell Betts (RB-WAS)
10. Ben Roethlisberger (QB-PIT)
11. Matt Jones (WR-JAX)
12. Trent Green (QB-MIA)
13. Brett Favre (QB-GB)
14. Chris Henry (RB-TEN)
15. Philadelphia Eagles (D)
16. Jason Elam (K-Den)

I might have had that same kicker-defense combination before. I'm certain I've had the converse (Broncos with Akers) at least once.

Of course immediately after this draft I read about how Ronnie Brown's job is in danger. Oh well.

Deadspin HOF Nominee Update

It's beyond me how any Deadspin reader could possibly vote no to this brilliant piece of corporate dystopia.

Unless I've missed a nominee somewhere, so far we have:

ESPN Memo = I think this should easily make it, yet so far it's falling short

Barbaro = I'd say "absolutely not!," yet it's on pace to make it

Sean Salisbury = no (any schlub can take a cell phone pic of his anatomy, though I'll admit the plaid skirted girls in the Deadspin pic are intriguing)

Brady Quinn = goodness gracious no

Ned = absolutely!

Things to "Learn"

I had to delete the original version of this post: I responded to a comment, decided I didn't like the response, went to delete my own comment, and accidentally deleted the original comment. Then Movable Type kept sending confirmation messages to a pop-up I couldn't find, leading me to believe I couldn't delete my own comment. Sorry for the inconvenience.

"What I'm wondering today, however, is if the next athlete with superstardom foisted upon them can learn anything from what happened to the Atlanta Falcons' two-time Pro Bowler."
--ESPN columnist Jeffri Chadiha, as linked from ESPN's front page

Um, I can think of two things:
1. Do not drown defenseless creatures.

2. Do not electrocute defenseless creatures.

If you're not even a decent enough human being to avoid committing particular acts of evil, then heaven help you, "superstardom foisted upon" you or not.

I skimmed the full column in case I'd been unfair to it. But if anything, that this guy uses the phrase "the ignorance of Vick" as shorthand for this whole scandal: Wow, who is "ignorant" of things like the two above rules of thumb?!

M.S.'s comment to the original notes that drowning and electrocution are very similar to U.S. torture practices (as explained in the links), with the conclusion that power corrupts in all circumstances. (He put it much more eloquently. I'm still mad at myself for clicking the wrong comment deletion checkbox. Serves me right for trying to exercise a privilege unavailable to other commenters.)

My knee-jerk response, to the effect that neither waterboarding nor electro-shock interrogation are fatal, is a silly hair-splitting response to what should be a clear-cut moral issue.

(That said, I fail to be offended by waterboarding or electro-shock if it's part of an effective interrogation that prevents an act of terror. Somehow I don't think Vick's dogs were planning to blow up any buildings. But yes, it's shameful how many Gitmo detainees weren't either.)

The Influence of Dan Savage on My Fantasy Football Draft Habits

It turns out there are exactly two players I refuse to draft under any circumstances, even though this is just a game and for FFL purposes you can mentally distinguish the guy's stats from the guy.

One is expected to take a plea bargain today. The other one would've been the obvious handcuff for Willie Parker, but... no, this is still unacceptable even years later. That is, the disutility I get from thinking of him exceeds the expected utility of having exclusive access to his stats.

Vote for Ned

I'm not quite a Deadspin regular (never gotten a commenter account accepted, though in only one attempt) but this seems to be exactly why the Deadspin HOF was created. Ned belongs.

Football-Like Substance

A plurality of my first six fantasy football keepers (also first six draftees given how the league is set up) this year are Arizona Cardinals.

Neither of them are wide receivers (or former Colts).

UPDATE: Full draft results after the jump, despite the universal truth that Nobody Cares About Your Fantasy Team(s).

Ten teams, 20 rounds. QB, two 2B, three "WR/TE", K, DL, LB, DB (three cheers for Individual Defensive Players!), and 10 bench slots.

Each team had to keep exactly six players from the year before: one from rounds 2-4, two from rounds 5-10, three from rounds 11-20 (free agent pickups could fill any of those slots; round 1 draftees couldn't be kept at all). Nobody knows what we'll do about keepers in 2009.

Green = kept players; bold = would start if I went strictly by draft order; italic = would be on the bench by strict draft order. Round numbers are arbitrary for the kept players (technically the first pick was of Thomas Jones!); my picks were 9th, 12th, 29th, 32nd (etc.) overall.

ROUND POS PL TM BYE
1 RB Steven Jackson STL 9
2 RB Willie Parker PIT 6
3 QB Matt Leinart ARI 8
4 DL Julius Peppers CAR 7
5 LB DeMeco Ryans HOU 10
6 DB Adrian Wilson ARI 8
7 WR Steve Smith (Car) CAR 7
8 WR Reggie Wayne IND 6
9 WR Hines Ward PIT 6
10 WR Santana Moss WAS 4
11 RB Mike Bell DEN 6
12 RB Tatum Bell DET 6
13 RB LenDale White TEN 4
14 RB Chris Henry TEN 4
15 WR D.J. Hackett SEA 8
16 WR Kevin Curtis PHI 5
17 QB Byron Leftwich JAX 4
18 QB Brady Quinn CLE 7
19 RB Brian Leonard STL 9
20 K Robbie Gould CHI 9

New Yahoo! Columnist on Vick

From the teaser to this column (In his debut for Y! Sports, Michael Silver explores the public's quickness to vilify Michael Vick while being less outraged when crimes against humans are committed) I almost correctly guessed which athlete other than Vick he would mention first.

I would've been dead on had he not begun his column with an anecdote that really isn't relevant to his man thesis.

As for that thesis itself: Not to defend the player whom I immediately thought of (I hope I've already mentioned here how reprehensible that player's actions were) but there's a big difference between recklessness and intent.

If the allegations in the indictment are true then Vick intentionally chose an especially cruel method of killing defenseless animals. (Yes yes, the counterpoint to that sentence is where the column's opening anecdote, about hunting, comes in. The powers-that-be have decided that particular forms of hunting are sufficiently humane not to ban them, and those are certainly more humane than electrocution.)

An Ominous Kevin Garnett Parallel

Herschel Walker

Two Unrelated Things I Learned Today

1. Lacey Chabert left The Family Guy on her own accord. She was too busy with school, Party of Five, and so on.

2. The Baltimore Colts of the early 1980s were a mismanaged laughingstock. I have a lot more sympathy now for John Elway's refusing to play for the team. (It wasn't just that they were bad, it really was Irsay.) What is it about the city of Baltimore and pugnacious idiots becoming rich then buying sports teams?

(Peter Angelos is still my least favorite American League owner. Several orders of magnitude separate Jeffrey Loria and Angelos from the newspaper people (McClatchy; Tribune Company) and sevearl more separate those from whoever's fifth-worst.)

More on Vick

If the indictment allegations are true then I'll stand by what I wrote two months ago about Michael Vick being Virginia Tech's most notorious alumnus.

30 students is a lot of people to shoot, but at least none of them were electrocuted (or forced to fight each other).

Diseased, Indicted, Both, or Neither?

Ron Mexico now qualifies for both.

As far as I can tell, despite all the innuendo, Barry Bonds has never actually been indicted. (Whether he's diseased is an exercise for the reader.)

Anyone else whose categorization is interesting?

(Original credit goes to whoever at Penn wrote the "Republican, indicted, both, or neither?" bonus 12 years ago.)

Chat Question of the Day

(Speaking of Simmons...)

"How come people condem wresting becuase of this but not the football because of Rae Carruth? Is it becuase people are looking for a reason to bash it? I never really liked it a ton after college, but I never understood why people have so much HATE for it."

Simmons focused his answer on the wrestling side, but the other half is that the NFL (and American football in the U.S. in general) is invincible. A mind-blowing amount of time and energy is spent on football in this country, starting in high school if not sooner.

Fan Allegiance Scandal in Naptown

Was that Peyton Manning wearing a Toledo Mudhens' cap?!?

(story this is based on)

I'm Way Late to the NFL Draft News, But...

Drew Stanton is only 20 picks better worse than Brady Quinn?

I obviously badly misread a Detroit news report. Even so, I love that Calvin Johnson continues the trend of first-round WRs.

NFL Schedule Highlights

In no particular order, not the interesting games but the schedule quirks that happen to interest me:

Thanks to the new baseball League Championship Series TV setup (one series on TBS, one on Fox) there is no weekend that lacks any Fox late game. The double-header order is:
Fox, CBS, Fox, CBS, CBS, CBS(!!), Fox, Fox, CBS, Fox, Fox, CBS, Fox, CBS, Fox, CBS, free-for-all.

Arizona at San Francisco, Week 1 on ESPN (late): Ah, the ESPN double-header lives. As does the lack of a CBS late game Week 1 due to U.S. Open coverage. (If you're scoring at home that's Denver at Buffalo, San Diego and Oakland both home but against NFC road teams.) This lets SF & OAK both be at home this weekend and both be on the road Week 2 (Oakland at Denver late).

San Diego at New England, Week 2 on NBC: Had the Patriots won the AFC championship this was almost dead certain to be the Week 1 kickoff game.

Baltimore at San Francisco, Week 5 on CBS: Raiders' bye.

New York Jets at New York Giants, Week 5 on CBS: Ha ha, NYG only has seven unambiguous home games and NYJ only seven unambiguous road games (actually they both have only seven unambiguous road games). (This makes up for four years ago, or if they keep the same rotation you could say four years from now makes up for it.)

NY Giants at Atlanta, Week 6 on ESPN: Clearing the way for Philly at NYJ the same weekend on Fox.

Oakland at San Diego, Week 6 on CBS: 49ers' bye.

NY Giants at Miami, Week 8 on Fox: From London! Go Silly Nannies. Both teams have Week 9 byes.

Washington at NY Jets, Week 9 on Fox: Giants have a bye to recover from going to London.

San Francisco at Seattle, Week 10 on ESPN: This game is never not a nationally televised game (the reason for this is kind of logistically amusing - it's not immediately obvious and has little to do with the merits of the rivalry)

Green Bay at Detroit; NY Jets at Dallas; Indianapolis at Atlanta, Week 12 on their respective networks for Thanksgiving.

Cincinnati at San Francisco, Week 15 on NFL Network. That moves an non-conference home game off of Sunday, and lets both SF & OAK be at home that weekend. Both are on the road Week 12 including San Francisco at Arizona for the late road game.

New England at NY Giants, Week 17 on NFL Network.

Oh, six teams each have byes Week 6 and Week 8 (instead of Week 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 or whatever it was). This time around byes run from Week 4 to Week 10, which I think is far superior to starting the year "Game, Game, BYE".

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

(And by "lately" I mean "in the last five minutes.")

This guy now says Greg Oden is the clear #1 pick in this year's NBA draft, but as far as I can tell it comes down to Oden having a big game more recently than Kevin Durant had a good game.

Suppose you asked someone before that game, "How good a game does Greg Oden need to have to distinguish himself as the top pick?" Unless they do this for a living they'd probably have no idea. I don't think Simmons himself could have given you a cogent, statistically valid answer. But why not compare Brand X to Brand Y based on Brand X looking spectacular in the most recent available small sample when Brand Y is no longer in the picture?

(This is also what I hated about some -- obviously not all, but some -- of the touchy-feely commentary asserting that Florida had earned a BCS championship spot based on its dominating performance in a week after Michigan's regular season had ended.)

N.B. I've never seen either Oden or Durant play. I have no idea which one's better. But the point is that you don't either, and anyone who claims to know (with any conviction) is probably making a lame argument.

You'll Hear More About This

You know exactly where, too.

Joey Porter was officially cited with misdemeanor battery after allegedly punching Bengals tackle Levi Jones in the face at a blackjack table in Vegas.

(I haven't read Deadspin in a few days, nor everyone's favorite ESPN Page 2 columnist.)

Football accounting question

From the player's point of view, does this change anything at all about what money he receives and when? (I took the clause the Colts can prorate that amount over the remaining four years of his deal to mean they can account for it differently, though if it also means they're paying him in installments then of course he's sacrificing something, depending on what discount rate you use.)

If not, shouldn't players routinely do this (maybe pocketing some very minimal incentive to do so)?

Holding, Cheating, and Original Sin

"Just because the NFL calls a penalty for holding doesn't mean that nobody's going to hold ever again. It's just the nature of competition, sadly."
--Eddie Gossage, president of the Texas Motor Speedway, comparing the recent NASCAR penalties to other sports in today's New York Times (sports, page 7)

Boy, those offensive linemen must be total scumbags, no? Amoral, dare I say evil? After all, look how often they're called for holding. And that's just the times they're called for it. Why, I've heard knowledgeable observers opine that holding could plausibly be called on EVERY PLAY.

Or rather, it could just be the combination of an ambiguous rule with a "punishment" for breaking that rule. There's a fine line between the type of contact that is a routine part of a football play and the kind that goes a bit too far. It's a continuum, rather than a discrete distinction between playing clean and cheating.

Even though I was raised in a religion that believes in Original Sin, and even if I tend to believe that humans are fundamentally flawed, that doesn't mean I have to like it. Nor do I have to like regimes that essentially set people up for... "set them up for failure" isn't quite the right expression, but the idea seems to be to treat everyone as a criminal.

Stick to bright lines, rules where it's fundamentally obvious what is(n't) allowed, and come down hard on the flagrant cheaters.

(Now that I've learned more about the current racing scandal, I can't object to punishing the "additive in his fuel" people. But the idea that holes in a wheel well cause an "unfair aerodynamic advantage"? That's nickel and dime.)

Grading Dr. Z's Grading

(By the way, whoever wrote the "Dr. Z" name's-the-same question for TRASH Regionals: excellent question!)

Some strange mistakes in this column:

On Joe Buck and Troy Aikman: Both of them really let me down, though, when they did Seattle-Dallas in the wild-card round without stressing the fact that the Seahawks' secondary was totally crippled. The only problem is, that game was on NBC. Perhaps he meant the Seattle-Chicago game.

[Daryl Johnston] totally missed the two-tight end, unbalanced line the Chargers opened with in the St. Louis game he worked with [Kevin] Harlan. Um, which network would have loaned their guy out to the other network to get that pairing? The game was in San Diego (thus on Fox, since it was an NFC road team). Without looking it up I imagine he meant Kenny Albert.

More Sports Hair-Splitting

Was there a 2-point conversion attempt in Super Bowl XLI? Was there a missed extra point? Lots of money rides on the answers to those questions.

An ordinary fan would probably say "no" (2-point attempt) and "yes" (missed extra point), even though the official NFL game book says it's the other way around.

For payout purposes it depends on how the prop bet was drafted, but wherever it's ambiguous I'd strongly advocate taking the official NFL account (even though it's so counterintuitive*).

*- But is it really? On the Colts' first touchdown, because of the botched snap, Vinatieri did even kick the ball. Had Hunter Smith carried the ball across the line (instead of just being tackled immediately), Indianapolis would have gotten two points. So... I feel very comfortable agreeing with the NFL here.

The Onion Botches Two P. Manning Predictions

Despite this News Brief, by my count none of the ads in this year's Super Bowl involved Manning. This one speaks for itself.

Curiously, if you search The Onion for Manning (using their own search widget), the "Super Bowl-Watching Party" article comes in one below this news piece that quotes a fictional person named Manning.

Super Bowl Wrap-Up

Amazing first quarter, then the Colts dominated the rest but didn't put the game away until the interception return. I don't understand the people who described this year's game as boring: Historically, any Super Bowl whose outcome is still in doubt in the fourth quarter is a better-than-average Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Log: Part 1

Kickoff return for a touchdown, traded punts, long pass for a touchdown, missed extra point, lost fumble on the ensuing kickoff, lost fumble on the next play, long run, short touchdown.

On the commercial front: the beverages (Budweiser, Fresca) are draining my will to live, their ads are so lame. For awhile Doritos was winning by default, then Chevy took the lead, then right as I was typing this: My goodness gracious, the Letterman/Oprah bit blows everything else out of the water.

NFL 2007: A Complete(ly Plausible) Schedule!

2007 NFL Schedule (300K spreadsheet).

This is (obviously) NOT the NFL's actual 2007 schedule, just an exercise in spreadsheet manipulation. But every team has its actual 2007 home and road opponents, provisions of the current TV contracts are respected, etc. There's no obvious reason why this couldn't be what the NFL adopted.

"What am I looking at?" The Schedule_by_Week tab has all 256 games in chronological order (all times Eastern, by NFL convention), with Sunday late games and national TV games color-coded. The Schedule_by_Team tab shows up to two teams' schedules (the way they might look on a beer poster): Just input a team's abbreviation ("IND", "NE", etc.) in one of the yellow squares up top. The Schedule_Grid tab is what it appears to be.

Some assumptions made: The season starts on the analogous weekend to 2006, with the same number of bye teams per week as 2006. Last year CBS had no Week 1 late game (U.S. Open coverage); we assume that's still true. However, we assume that Fox no longer eschews a late game on a weekend of baseball's League Championship Series, since Fox now only carries one LCS.

Last year ESPN kicked off its Monday Night coverage with a Week 1 doubleheader. We assume that's a one-time thing; however, if they pull that again this year, the changes are an earlier start time for San Diego at Tennessee, with Seattle at San Francisco moved to 10:00 (EDT) Monday night.

We assume the NFL Network is still doing the late-season Thursday & Saturday games in-house like last year and that Thanksgiving continues according to tradition.

We assume that NBC still gets flex-scheduling for the last eight weeks of the season (and still doesn't schedule a game against the first Sunday of the World Series) and that CBS and Fox don't need to announce those week's late games (other than games at the six Mountain/Pacific sites) until NBC picks its featured game. We assume both CBS and Fox get a Week 17 doubleheader; it should be clear from context which network has the doubleheader any other week ("4:15" = doubleheader network, "4:05" = other network).

Finally, we assume there isn't some weird rule requiring all 32 teams to be on national TV at least once each. As a quick check, the 2006 Houston Texans seem never to have made it to national TV.

Featured Games: Obvious highlights, as might be mentioned in a press release: The season kicks off with New England at Indianapolis September 6, 2007. (Should Chicago win the Super Bowl, this game is easily swapped with New York Giants at Chicago the evening of Sunday, September 9.) NBC also gets San Diego at New England (Week 5) and Indianapolis at Atlanta (Week 6).

The Thanksgiving slate is Chicago at Detroit, New England at Dallas, and (the first NFL Network game of 2006) Cleveland at Baltimore.

ESPN's last game is a special Christmas Eve (Monday afternoon) match-up with New Orleans at Chicago.

For other week-by-week or team-by-team highlights just open the file yourself and play with it.

The First NFL Head Coach Younger Than Me

Lane Kiffin is 59 days younger than me.

The first Major League Baseball player younger than me was Alex Rodriguez.

The first NFL player younger than me was probably Ray Lewis, if not a tie between Lewis and others. (If you find another 1996 draftee born in 1975, or a 1995-or-earlier draftee born in 1975, or reliable biographical information on undrafted players, let me know.)

There has yet to be a Major League Baseball manager younger than me. (That is in the "born later than 1975 March 11" sense, not in the Lou Boudreau sense.)

I believe Jon Daniels is the first and only major league GM younger than me (Theo Epstein is older; Josh Byrnes is significantly older).

Back to NFL Scheduling

If you're geeky enough to care about doing this but not so interested in stumbling around in the dark...

Anyone who cared enough to click through at all can probably skip to the phrase "Now you're caught up."

You already know there are 32 teams in the league: 4 teams per division, 4 divisions per conference, 16 games per team per season (over 17 weeks, with byes in weeks 3-9). You probably also know of a set schedule rotation, as of 2002-2009, for 14 of each team's 16 games.

Some nomenclature, to save time and confusion later:
DIVISION GAMES - Home-and-home against each division opponent. Each team has six of these.

CONFERENCE GAMES - One game each against the four opponents of some other division in a team's same conference. These division vs. division are set by rotation (for example: 2007 AFC West vs. AFC South), and games' location depends on alphabetical order by location name. (Example: Houston hosts Denver and KC but visits Oakland and SD. Indianapolis does the same. Jacksonville and Tennessee do the opposite.) These are on a three-year rotation, so without even looking I know that in 2004 Houston visited Denver and KC but hosted Oakland and San Diego. (Okay, I looked - sanity check.)

CROSSOVER GAMES - One game each against the four opponents of some division in the other conference. Again, set by rotation (four-year this time), alphabetical order by location name. (Example: 2007 includes AFC West vs. NFC North. Chicago hosts Denver and KC but visited Oakland and SD. Detroit does the same, Green Bay and Minnesota do the opposite. Yes, the 2003 Bears visited Denver and KC but hosted Oakland and SD.)

NON-COMMON GAMES - Two more games per team, based on previous year's order of finish. Some semblance of a rotation here but it would have been impossible to avoid particular divisions having the same home-road direction twice in a row (working out proof of this is a useful exercise). In 2007 the nth place AFC West team visits the nth place AFC East team (San Diego at New England, KC at NY Jets, etc.) but hosts the nth place AFC North team (Baltimore at San Diego, Cincinnati at KC, etc.).

Future schedules here, most recent standings here for the noncommon games, or you can root around for the press release right after the most recent regular season ended, making official each team's home and road opponents.

"Now you're caught up."
Put each team's 2007 opponent lists into an easily accessible format (spreadsheet, linked list, whatever tool is right for your medium).

Designate 16 game slates (i.e. rows or columns in a spreadsheet) as 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, [...], 8a, 8b. (The way we're doing this, for any pair of these Na and Nb, every team will have one home game and one road game.)

NON-COMMON GAMES
1a, 3a, 5a, and 7a will each have four noncommon AFC games (one home team per division); 2a, 4a, 6a, and 8a will each have four noncommon NFC games (again one home team per division). For your first four-game subslate in each conference, choose teams so that:

*- 1st place thru 4th place each represented by one game. (Not crucial for making a schedule work but very useful for making the nationally televised games plausible.)

*- From each division comes exactly one of the first two alphabetical teams and exactly one of the last two. (e.g. DEN & OAK, DEN & SD, KC & OAK, and KC & SD are all fine, but DEN & KC wouldn't be, nor would OAK & SD)

Example of a slate that works: [call it 1a without loss of generality] New England at Indianapolis (1st), Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (3rd), Cincinnati at Kansas City (2nd), Oakland at Miami (4th).

Now look at the way you "paired off" division teams. For a given division, each of your other three noncommon game subslates will contain both of those teams, else neither of those teams.

Thus:
[3a] Kansas City at NY Jets (2nd), Buffalo at Jacksonville (3rd), Indianapolis at Baltimore (1st), Cleveland at Oakland (4th)

[5a] San Diego at New England (1st), Miami at Houston (4th), Tennessee at Cincinnati (2nd), Pittsburgh at Denver (3rd)

[7a] Denver at Buffalo (3rd), NY Jets at Tennessee (2nd), Houston at Cleveland (4th), Baltimore at San Diego (4th)

For the eight teams in a given "a" subslate, the "b" subslate will just be conference games, e.g. [1b] here would be MIA@NE, PIT@CIN, IND@JAX, KC@OAK.

Now we're already 25% there. Each team has its noncommon games taken care of plus one particular division opponent home-and-home. In each numbered group we've taken half of one conference off the board.

Some CONFERENCE GAMES
Okay, eight AFC teams still need opponents for {1a,1b}. (Eight NFC teams still need opponents for {2a, 2b}, eight AFC [etc.].) Four of those eight will get conference games. In 2007 those would be (AFCE-AFCN) or (AFCS-AFCW), so we could go with [BUF, NYJ, BAL, CLE] or [HOU, TEN, DEN, SD]. I'll happen to choose the former. We find that in 2007 Buffalo hosts Baltimore and visits Cleveland; NY Jets do vice versa.

Slot those one way or the other: Bills and Jets will host games one week, Browns and Ravens the other week. Easily reversible four-team, two-week subslate. (Incidentally, as arbitrary slotting decisions come up, we should observe specifically where NYJ, NYG, OAK, and SF are at home or on the road, so that teams from the same metro area [in one case same home field] have opposite home-road status as much as possible.)

Repeat this conference game slotting process for the other seven two-week groups, so that now each team has two of its conference opponents slotted. Now we're 37.5% there: in any given week, 75% of one conference is assigned, 0% of the other conference.

CROSSOVER GAMES:
These can make or break a schedule algorithm. (Just like the noncommon games could have made or broken us had we started in a different place.)

In our example, [HOU, TEN, DEN, SD] are still unassigned for {1a,1b}. They're getting crossover games, but because their counterpart NFC divisions aren't also facing each other in common games, there's one particular **VERY UNINTUITIVE** way to handle this and avoid a dead end.

We know that Denver and San Diego will each have two weeks of non-division opponents. One of those weeks they'll BOTH play teams from the other division's FIRST TWO location names (i.e. Chicago, Detroit). The other week they're BOTH play teams from the other division's LAST TWO location names (i.e. Green Bay, Minnesota).

For a given pair of crossover division counterparts (in 2007 that's AFC West-NFC North; AFC North-NFC West; the Souths; the Easts), note the four places where two teams need opponents: In our example (to this point) that's DEN-SD one place, KC-OAK one place, and let's say we'd worked out the other nonconference games so that it was CHI-MIN one place, DET-GB one place.

Let's say we decided to put Minnesota at Denver in {1a}. Then San Diego at Green Bay would also have to go in {1a}. [Green Bay as Minnesota's alphabetical partner, San Diego as the other AFC West team that needed an opponent.]

Some consequences, which each may not seem obvious at first but take a look and see why they're true: Kansas City would need to be in Minnesota's "two weeks in a row" crossovers. Kansas City would need to not be in Chicago's "two weeks in a row." Denver would need to be in Chicago's "two in a row." Denver's {1b} opponent would need not to be Chicago. But it can't be Minnesota [that'd be two home games, not home-and-road], so it would be Denver at Detroit, leaving Chicago at San Diego. Everything else would fall into place by elimination.

Repeat for the other three pairs of crossover divisions, noting each time that the first arbitrary assumption you make results in everything being slotted.

Now each team has all four of its crossover games set (at least to within a two-week group), both of its noncommon games, one of its home-and-home division rivalries, and two more conference games. Meanwhile, each week one conference is entirely set and four teams from the other conference are tied into crossover games. We're 62.5% there.

More CONFERENCE games, plus DIVISION game wrap-up:
In our continuing example, {1a} has Chicago and Detroit in need of opponents; {1b} has Green Bay and Minnesota in need of opponents. One of those times, those pairs of teams would just play each other (while the NFC East had entirely divisional games two weeks in a row); the other time, each team would get in one more of its conference games (vs. NFC East) in, while another division (NFC East) got a couple division games.

Let's say we designated {1a} as Chicago and Detroit facing NFC East opponents. (The other time where they needed opponents while GB & MIN faced KC & OAK, they'd just play each other.) Once we'd gotten this far it'll turn out that Chicago's "other" NFC East home game (say, Dallas) and Detroit's "other" NFC East road game are against two teams that are neither alphabetical partners, nor partners in the way we did the noncommon games.

Why is that important? Well, those two teams would be playing each other in {1b}, and again in whichever two-week pod the NFC East was entirely divisional games. Since we knocked one particular division home-and-home for each team in the "noncommon games" part, each team's other divisional games are either against their alphabetical partner, or the "other other" team in that division.

Long story short, up to this point it works almost like demon magic. You're still left with these inelegant concerns:

1. Setting up Week 1 so that the Super Bowl teams have elite home games. (Example: Indianapolis vs. New England, Chicago vs. Dallas. A flaw -- fatal flaw? -- in my algorithm is that you can't easily twist it around so that NE@IND and NO@CHI could be the same week, since they're both noncommon games in opposite conferences.) On this front, keeping Chicago out of the Week 1-2 crossover fray is probably best, but that means having the AFC West not be crossovers, which in turn...

2. Setting up Week 1 so that CBS has no Sunday late games [U.S. Open].
...leaves it that NFC West are crossovers, which in turn requires rigging it so that the AFC@NFC game is somebody at St. Louis.

3. (Until 2006, but unnecessary from 2007 onward) Setting up the Sunday of the NLCS and ALCS so that Fox had no Sunday late games.

4. Setting up Thanksgiving so that Detroit and Dallas both have interesting home games (e.g. NE@DAL, CHI@DET).

5. Ordering the eight numbered subslates (and each number's {a} and {b}) to keep divisional rematches from being closer than three weeks apart.

6. Byes. You can map (e.g.) 1a & 1b to Weeks 1-2, next pod to weeks 3-4, next pod to weeks 5-6, next pod to weeks 8-9. Shift half the games over from week 5 to week 7 and propagate two byes per league up from Week 5 to Week 3, two from Week 5 to Week 4, two down from Week 7 to Week 8, two to Week 9. Very messy though.

He Still Thinks He's on the New England Roster

I spent the next 20 minutes making excuses, shaking my head and passing blame around.
--This guy's favorite team lost. I'm told that happens now and then. As best I understand sports physics (also known as real physics) fans sitting at home watching on TV are no more responsible for that kind of loss than they are for a dramatic win.

It's ironic that the same person who thinks he's somehow singlehandedly responsible for whether his favorite team wins or loses, actually is singlehandedly responsible (with seeming to realize it) for the level of hatred so many other fans have achieved for his favorite team.

Obligatory cool-down rhetoric:
What we saw over the last week, poisoning sports sites around the Internet and the discussion threads here on [Football Outsiders], is what happens when irrational hatred becomes a more important part of being a fan than irrational love. And let me tell you, it sucks.

I believe in a world where the Patriots and Colts can both be great teams, and it just so happens that no team gets to win the championship every year. I believe in a world where Colts fans can respect the accomplishments of the Patriots in the same way that Bears fans respect the accomplishments of the Saints, where people don’t call either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning a choking crybaby, and where we don’t obsess over the pressure of a Bill Belichick handshake, measuring our hatred for him to the most intricate measurement of pounds per square inch.
--Aaron Schatz

Shipoopi: An NFL Analysis

Julia and I went to Peninsula Teen Opera yesterday. Our drive down began early in the third quarter of Saints-Bears and ended just as Chicago had gotten the ball leading 25-14 and seemingly about to ice it (so before the true implosion but after the outcome was clear enough).

At intermission New England had a 14-3 lead over Indianapolis.

Our drive back began with the Colts trailing, 28-21; I dropped Julia off at home and ran an errand, with the game ending as I pulled into a parking spot. But when the Patriots had a 3-point lead and got the ball back with about three-and-half minutes left, Julia was happy that the New England seemed to be about to win asked if we could watch the "Patriot Games" episode of Family Guy. With Indianapolis winning I was all the happier to see that episode.

Anyhow, this episode is a metaphor but not the one you may have thought:

If you know the subplot of that episode, think of the Patriots as Stewie the bookie and the Colts as Brian. AFC championship games from earlier this decade are the "Where's my money?!" interval of Stewie savagely beating Brian. The last two regular-season games in that rivalry are when Brian had paid back his gambling debt and was waiting to take his "free shot" at Stewie and kept making him cringe. The game yesterday was when Brian finally pushed Stewie out in front of that double-decker bus as the closing credits were about to roll.

NFL Schedule 2007

Good news and bad news:

The good is that there's a really neat algorithm to work out a schedule very quickly.

The bad is that the way I happened to apply this algorithm, New England at Indianapolis [now the obvious choice for Thursday night Kickoff game if Indy wins the Super Bowl, else the first Sunday night game] is the same week as Cleveland at Oakland. Assuming CBS is still eschewing any Week 1 late games thanks to U.S. Open coverage, that won't fly. Even for the second game of an ESPN Monday night doubleheader (like Week 1 in 2006), Browns-Raiders is just too lousy to contemplate for national TV.

Oh, and the other bad is that there's no elegant way to turn my 16 weeks (actually eight pairs of weeks, for home-road balancing goodness) into 17 weeks with correctly interspersed byes. There are of course inelegant ways...

Good Teams That Used To Be Bad, and the People Who Hate the People Who Love Them

REARRANGED to put the less important part in the extended entry. -MLB an hour later

When I was young, my teams were bad and I hated teams that were good.
Now, my teams are good and other people hate them. This is a very bad
thing.
--Kubi's apt summation of this entire column

Quoting Bill Simmons...

After one of the greatest victories in Patriots history [...] I turned the television off, pulled off an awkward high-five with my father and waited for the phone to ring.[...] None of my friends called. My mom never called. None of my editors called. I even checked the ringer on our phone to make sure it was working. Yup. It was working. I jumped online and only two friends had sent along their congratulations

Interesting to see this in a column fretting that people see the Patriots the way they see the Yankees. More precisely, the problem is that a vocal subset of Patriot FANS are behaving exactly the way a vocal subset of Yankee FANS behaved: Acting as though they personally won these great victories, as opposed to this team that they root for. Using way too much "we" instead of "they," and acting as if they're entitled to personal congratulations.

(Most people don't think to use the word "felicitation", instead saying "congratulations" in either case, so there's SOME slack to be cut, but still.)

I did call some of you (you know who you are) immediately as the 2004 World Series ended, because that was a once-in-a-lifetime event where I wanted to soak up your emotion. It would never occur to me to call or write to you the next time the Red Sox won the American League Division Series, nor to think that you'd feel hurt if nobody else did either.

If you can't fully enjoy your favorite team's triumphs without other people congratulating you, then you're almost as depraved as somebody who can't fully enjoy an orgasm unless he gets an ovation from an audience.

Now, to be fair, a lot of readers here are longtime Patriot fans who not only suffered through the lean decades but also would NEVER behave the way Simmons does. You guys should (and will) enjoy every success New England gets, without giving a damn what I or anyone else say.

I actually picked up an important piece of advice from that column, though I probably still won't heed it (for reasons beyond my control: attending a Sunday matinée performance by one of Julia's theatrical alumnae):

If you don't like the accompanying BS for an admittedly overdiscussed game, simply skip the shows, columns, features and SportsCenter segments and join CBS at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. Guess what happens when you block out the forced subplots, the exhausted Manning-Brady comparisons, the insufferable pregame hype and the vitriol on various blogs? You're left with a potentially fantastic game.

This is admittedly true, though it also reminds me that I can tell you exactly when Colts-Patriots games became unwatchable for me: A game-deciding fourth down play on which a New England DB just mugged an Indy receiver, yet drew no flag. Even before the NFL's rules clarifications (which went too far for a few weeks then were quietly dropped) it was the most egregious non-call I've seen. Oddly enough, Simmons's next sentence:

Remember, these teams can't stand each other dating back to the Colts' whining like sissies after their 2004 playoff loss in New England.

I have no idea how much Indianapolis complained specifically about this call but there's a difference between "whining like sissies" and asking that blatant penalties not be swept under the rug. [For what it's worth: No Indy attachment here. Actually a Bronco fan, so if anything I'm used to dominant Colts and choking Pats instead of the other way around. I used to think there was an obvious answer to this quarterback supremacy question but I've since become ambivalent.]

A Very Minor Piece of Charger Schadenfreude

Meaning no disrespect to P. Rivers, it does warm my heart quite a bit to see Drew Brees make it further into this year's playoffs than his old team did.

(All four possible Super Bowl combinations this year leave me rooting for the NFC team, which is uncharacteristic. I have never rooted for an NFC Super Bowl team that actually won the game in question, odd given the level of Super Bowl dominance of the late 1980s and early 1990s. In Super Bowls where I remember being aware at the time, it turns out the teams I've rooted for have gone 5-18. The winners are Denver twice, Pittsburgh a year ago, New England their first time, Oakland Raiders against Jon Gruden, and Los Angeles Raiders(!!) for reasons that I'm sure made sense when I was eight years old.)

Why Am I Still So Bitter About Yesterday's NE-SD Game?

The obvious answer involves a specific ESPN columnist, but no man should have the power to singlehandedly turn an entire nation against his own favorite teams. At least, you'd think a man with such power would be way, way better at what he does.

Pretending for a moment that the writer in question never existed:

The Patriots were in disarray when I arrived in the Boston area for college. 1992 was the 2-14 season, two years removed from the 1-15 season. Quarterback Hugh Millen and coach Dick McPherson were in their second and final season, soon to give way to Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells.

The 1993 Patriots did not in fact go 1-15. I watched (on TV) the game at Pittsburgh where failure to convert a goal line situation dropped New England to 1-11, though it says here they won out from that point on.

A year later they started out 3-6 but won out, starting with the game at Minnesota where Bledsoe set the NFL record for pass attempts. They made the playoffs at 10-6 but lost their only game to, coincidentally, a team coached by Bill Belichick.

Then a let-down season about which I remember little (started 1-5, ended up 6-10), then the [locally] famous "Jambalaya!" (is Eddie Andelman still alive?) Super Bowl year, then the onset of mediocrity within the Pete Carroll era.

But the point is, I felt at least the level of connection to the Patriots that one would expect a generic transient Boston resident to feel. Even when I moved out here in 2000, my two favorite things about the Tuck Rule game were that it happened against the Raiders and that Greg Papa does some of his best broadcasting when he's incensed to the level of apocalypse. (When bad things happen to the 49ers Joe Starkey just whines -- very unbecoming of an otherwise fine broadcaster. When bad things happen to the Raiders Greg Papa is like a mean drunk; if anything it's amazing that he never drops obscenities on the air.)

As for San Diego, it's easy to forget just how much of the franchise history consists of being just terrible. They're the relatively overlooked team among longtime AFC West rivals. I never even knew of specific Charger fans until working with some guys from San Diego. I did lucky with a fantasy football keeper league draft LaDainian Tomlinson's rookie year, resulting in my having him each of his first four seasons. (But not the current super-duper-megastar incarnation, alas.)

But that's just one player (to be sure, his fullback and offensive line are six more players). I've certainly never liked any of the Chargers' name brand defenders (Shawn Merriman now, Junior Seau ten years ago).

Getting back to the Patriots, here's what's changed, in no particular order:
1. Of my closest friends, the two biggest football fans are a Rams fan and a Jets fan. I watched Super Bowl XXXVI with the former.

2. Several years in a row the team claimed to be "disrespected," even as their coach was anointed as a genius (appropriately, but still).

3. Three Super Bowl championships is enough; spread it around a little.

4. There's a great quote by Aaron Schatz (Patriot fan, coincidentally) in this week's Football Outsiders "Audibles at the Line." (Second line item in a row where I'd link to FO except their site is down as I type.) The difference between the 2001-2006 New England Patriots and 2001-2006 Philadelphia Eagles is a combination of lucky bounces, quarterback injuries, and marginally better game plans.

5. Everyone with an outspoken opinion on Brady-vs.-Manning is wrong (just as everyone with an outspoken opinion on the DH rule is wrong). This weekend in particular, they both played poorly yet won. Yes, Brady played poorly. The drive at the end of the game was to his credit, but unless you want to claim that he somehow caused the 4th down interception to be fumbled, this win goes to Troy Brown et al.

6. A San Diego-specific point after all the New England stuff: Aside from some brain farts specific to the man (all singled out a post below this one), Martyball is deeply underrated as an offensive scheme.

Martyball

Apparently a 47-yard field goal attempt is worse than going for it on 4th and 11, yet a 52-yard game-tying attempt is better than running one more play with eight seconds left.

Never mind the stupid personal fouls, or the defender who kept a drive alive by intercepting/fumbling instead of just knocking the ball to the ground.

On the plus side the Super Bowl is guaranteed to involve either the Bears or the Saints. Their AFC opponent will be a franchise that's accomplished quite a lot this decade and worthy of tons of respect for winning a Divisional playoff game on the road blah blah.

By the way, Andy Reid's punt last night took away all the high esteem I'd ever had for him.

I might actually be done watching football for the year. We'll play it by ear about a possible Super Bowl party, and who knows, maybe I'll catch part of that Bears-Saints game. Maybe not though.

What Happened to the Chicago Defense?

As Chad pointed out they've now scored 21 points and 24 points in consecutive years' playoff home games. You'd think that would be enough to win given how the team is built.

Here's today's drive chart. Before the last drive of regulation there were three drives of 10+ plays, all by Chicago. Those resulted in TD, Int, FG.

Seattle had 13 drives in regulation, seven of them of four plays or less, two of five plays. The other four were 9 plays (TD), 9 (FG), 7 (TD), and 10 (end of regulation).

It's as if the Bears let down a bit if they don't shut the other offense down completely. But it all worked out okay as I was typing this.

Worst Easterbrook Column Since the "Jews in Hollywood" Debacle?

Gawd. Where to begin?

Indianapolis just has better players than Kansas City.

Even on defense? The 2006 regular season suggests otherwise.

Even if you had a good relationship with a good father, you still need other father figures, since your own father inevitably will pass on[.]

I really need a "father figure" for the rest of my natural life?! I love my dad. I could not ask for a better actual father. He is, however, a person and not a role. He need not be replaced and in fact cannot be replaced.

A few generations ago, millions looked for life guidance to the examples of public-spirited intellectual figures such as Albert Schweitzer or Upton Sinclair. Today's intellectuals seem arrogant [...]

Let's assume for the sake of argument this is true and not something he's pulled out of his butt to project onto society (since clearly we all think the way he thinks).

95% of the change in stature of public figures results from the same information explosion that gave us so many more celebrities than used to be possible. We have far more public figures now, and know far more about those public figures now than there would have been bandwidth to disseminate even 20-30 years ago.

There's just no need anymore for "millions" to "look for life guidance" from just one or two particular figureheads (other than Oprah I suppose). At least, in the civilized world there's no such need.

Quick: Which people living right now are "looked [to] for life guidance" more than anyone else on Earth? I guarantee you it's the likes of Kim Jong-Il, Hugo Chavez, Turkmenbashi before he died... basically some of the world's most EVIL people, who hold an information monopoly and orchestrate their nations' communication channels to give saturation coverage exalting themselves.

But it may be telling that the onset of the coach as superstar, the first instance being Vince Lombardi [...]

Not Bear Bryant?

Anyone who's been involved in competitive athletics knows that 90 percent of motivation comes from within the athlete. But the coaching guild doesn't want you to know that.

This might be true for individual-based sporting events. But on a team I have a feeling one's boss has just a bit more than 10% to do with whether one gives 110% at all moments of work, or slacks off a little. The more a project requires real-time coordination between teammates, the more critical it is that they're on board. Back to coaching: There's a fine line between being authoritative enough that players bust tail on every play, yet not so gratuitously Coughlin-like that your charges deservedly tune you out.

N.B. I even agree with Easterbook's basic point, that coaches as a whole are overrated, yet he lays out the argument as ludicrously as possible.

Despite Knowing Nothing About College Football

I will finish either 3rd (Ohio State wins) or 4th (Ohio State loses) in the Barker Gang group of ESPN's bowl picking contest.

Adam Kittle has clinched the whole thing and Joel Gluskin has clinched one spot ahead of me; another guy will finish either 2nd or 4th because he gave the championship game far fewer confidence points than Joel or I did. Everyone with a maximum possible point total higher than my current point total picked Ohio State, which means we'll all get our respective confidence points or we'll all get nothing.

There's a close correlation between how many confidence points I assigned to a game and how big that game's betting line was as of when ESPN's pool opened. Some tweaks resulted from personal animus and/or senses of fraught or anti-fraught (would U. of Texas really lose a bowl game in San Antonio, or U. of Hawaii a bowl game in Hawaii?; conversely, I expected Miami to dog it stuck up in Idaho).

Gluskin may have used similar confidence-point criteria, given that he and I both gave the Rose Bowl (line was 0 last I saw) our lowest confidence: I had USC for 1 point, he had Michigan for 1 point.

Some Oddly Related Football Stories

I wonder how soon we'll see Mark Cuban point out that the Dallas Cowboys irresponsibly cost themselves a lot of money this weekend (however much marginal revenue is associated with each additional road playoff game a team plays).

Most of these via Football Outsiders, though I haven't seen them aggregated quite like this yet (emphasis added on two of them, you'll see why):

One reason for [San Francisco quarterback] Alex Smith's success: he isn't fumbling as much as he did last year because he now brings his own footballs to games.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that an NFL rule change allows each team to bring a dozen balls with them to away games for use on offense. The balls must be examined by a referee, but they can be doctored to some extent to remove the slick waterproofing from their surface. Smith and Niners equipment supervisor Steve Urbaniak give Smith's balls a good working over during the week, running them under some water, scrubbing them with a brush, and drying them with a towel.
--Mike Tanier, December 2006

Quarterback Koy Detmer's holding skills on field goals are so valuable the Philadelphia Eagles couldn't enter the playoffs without him.
The veteran returned to the Eagles on Tuesday to provide insurance behind starter Jeff Garcia and backup A.J. Feeley. More importantly, Detmer likely will replace punter Dirk Johnson as the holder for kicker David Akers.
--AP via ABC, January 2, 2007

[Dallas quarterback Tony] Romo's real-life flub of the snap on the possible game-winning field goal try could haunt him for the rest of his career, TV analysts say.

NBC's Al Michaels said it was an "amazing" blunder Saturday. By Sunday, pundits warned Romo his goof will be replayed endlessly in the 24/7 world of sports media and the Internet — and live in infamy among the worst sports gaffes.
--USA Today

David Akers kicked a 38-yard field goal as time expired to cap a 10-play, 46-yard drive and give the Eagles a 23-20 win over the Giants yesterday at the Linc in an NFC wild-card game.
--PhillyBurbs.com, yesterday

[Dallas] Cowboys owner-general manager Jerry Jones contends -- and he wasn't the only one -- that the ball quarterback Tony Romo lost control of on the hold for a 19-yard field goal was brand new and wasn't worked in properly. "That's the responsibility of the home team. They can prepare those balls and they still have to pass muster with the officials," Jones said after Seattle's 21-20 wild-card playoff victory. "But that home team can really knock the slickness off the ball -- that should be done. I've been talking about these balls for years and years. The more we can hold onto the football, the better the game you have. It's almost like placing a factor in the game to create a little ambiguity."
--Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, today

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

Straight-up: All four home teams (SD, BAL, CHI, NO), just as planned. These past four games I was 3-1 (missed the Chiefs); the Kubiceks were each 4-0, as was everyone else who took straight home teams.

Against the spread: If the spreads are about what I think they'll be* then take the points with both NFC road underdogs. I'm sure San Diego will be worth giving the points but Colts-Ravens is the game with the greatest spread uncertainty. I'm not sure whether the general public will overrate the Colts or underrate them. This weekend against the spread I was 1-3 (got only Dallas).

23:09 EST

It's always neat to look at discussion boards after a dramatic game and pinpoint to the minute when the most earth-shattering play happened.

This was the "on the phone w/Chad" game of January 2007, analogous to last year's Colts-Steelers game.

Question About Sports Contracts

Is there any major sports league other than the NFL where a player (or coach) can announce his "retirement," only to turn around and sign a big deal with another team?

Even if contracts can be terminated, you'd think there would be a non-compete clause.

Interesting Philadelphia Eagles Sidenote

If Football Outsiders had listened to their own computers more instead of stepping in with a manual override, they could have had a fantastic Eagle-related prognostication. Despite the Eagles' bad early-season luck, FO had Philadelphia as one of the four best teams in the league even when that looked absurd.

Now, obviously predictions that don't reflect the loss of a star quarterback are dubious; even so, their formulas unfairly sold {Eagles + Garcia} short. (Yes it's very easy to say this in hindsight, and I wish I'd had the foresight myself to make this point weeks ago, but since they lacked empirical data on the 2006 model Jeff Garcia, they basically made some stuff up for him, and their arbitrary assumptions turned out to be way too low-ball.)

NFL Playoff Predictions

I almost always believe that the home team has more than a 50% chance to win any given NFL playoff game. Therefore, when asked for straight-up* playoff predictions, I almost always take a straight slate of home teams, without any exception at all.

This year I'll make at least one exception, maybe two.

Wild-card winners: Kansas City (that's one), Seattle, New England, Philadelphia.

Divisional game winners: San Diego, Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans

Super Bowl: San Diego over New Orleans (NO over CHI would be the other)

*- On one hand, lay football fans have no reason to use a betting line in picking against each other. On the other, the lack of a line is what leads me to boring, almost-always-home-team predictions. Based on where the lines stand as of now (Indy -6.5, Seattle -3, NE -8.5, Philly -7), the only favorite I'd pick to cover is Philadelphia. I'd take the points in the other three.

(Even though 3 points is a very small line, I really do guesstimate that Seattle has (only) about a 52-55% chance of winning that game, enough to pick them straight up but not enough to give any kind of odds.)

A Tie Would Have Been Enough

"All the Broncos (9-7) needed was a win over the double-digit underdog Niners (7-9) or even a tie to earn a spot in the playoffs" (emphasis added)

Game ended with 1:53 left in overtime.

No Longer Burning Questions

I got a haircut today. While I waited I saw a TV Guide on the table, cover date early November. It was the so-called "NFL Mid-Season Preview," with three "burning questions" on the cover:

BEARS - Will Rex Grossman stay hot? (Hint: No.)

COLTS - Will Peyton Manning win a Super Bowl? (Julia says "no.")

GIANTS - Big year for Eli Manning? (You be the judge. Giants had won five in a row when that issue came out, at least.)

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 7 of 8

See also Part 1 thru Part 6

NOTE: If you've read all seven of these then you'll know what six I have left over by process of elimination. Before I even attempt to rank those six I want to know what you think. How would you stack them up? Which of these 48 have I most egregiously overrated or underrated?

12. New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins. Maybe it's the A Fan's Notes fan in me but I thought these two would have more mid-century history to go by. I suppose they did have the late 1930s and early '40s, plus the 1986 NFC Championship game.

11. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets. The Dolphins' perfect season was two years removed from Joe Namath's guarantee. Actual highlights from this rivalry include the 51-45 game in which Dan Marino and Ken O'Brien combined for 10 touchdowns, the seething hatred for Marino expressed by every Jets fan I know, and of course the big Monday Night comeback. I have no regrets about slotting it this high but there's a distinct gap between it and the top 10.

10. Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Probably the biggest NFL rivalry among those were both teams' fans hate a particular third team even more. This is quite a recent rivalry, especially compared to what you see right below it. Highlights include the 1994 Monday Night double-comeback and the 1997 AFC Division playoff.

9. Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions. "Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my!" Of the greatest rivalries, this one probably has the biggest ratio of "big before I was born" to "big in my lifetime." (But I hear there was a very prescient grandparent who preemptively hyped those Bucs-Panthers games.)

8. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders. This was a tremendous AFL rivalry, back when Al Davis and Lamar Hunt were both still alive and well. The Oakland Raiders' Wikipedia page speculates that a baseball franchise relocation (A's from Kansas City to Oakland) intensified this rivalry.

7. Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Perversely, the Terrell Owens hype almost worked against this rivalry on the list because I came close to assuming it was all overrated. This one is all about the fans at Veterans Stadium, the ones who booed while Michael Irvin lay writhing on the turf, who (so I hear) hate a Cowboys jersey orders of magnitude more than a Giants or Skins jersey.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 6 of 8

See also Part 1 thru Part 5

18. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns. "You don't live in Cleveland, you live in Cincinnati." --Sam Wyche grabs the PA to exhort fans to stop throwing snowballs. The in-state intensity is certainly there but it's hard to find seasons where they're both above average. 1988 is about as good as it gets. Give these teams a lot of credit for the highest scoring non-blowout in NFL history.

17. St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers. These teams were fighting for division titles in both the early 1950s and mid 1980s. They had a role reversal from 1998 to 1999, then were both good again in 2001. This slot says a lot more about what's still to come than about the Rams and 49ers themselves.

16. Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers. This one always gets them fighting in the stands and it has plenty of history, from the Holy Roller game to the 1980 AFC Championship. To be fair, that history is pretty concentrated in a particular era. Am I overrating the Bronco-Chief-Raider trifecta by ranking this only the fourth best division rivalry?

15. Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers. Did you know they met in the playoffs in consecutive seasons in the 1990s? (Green Bay won close games both times.) This one was also red-hot in the 1950s, but in the grand scheme of things the Lions are the Packers' least interesting current divisional rival, and may only be fifth among conference rivals (behind CHI, MIN, DAL, SF).

14. NY Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Like the Bengals-Steelers below, this one feels as though it should be higher just given how hot the rivalry is right now. The only problem I have is that games involving these teams lead people to mention the Joe Pisarcik play suspiciously often. If there really were more to the rivalry then wouldn't that one play be a much smaller portion of it?

13. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals haven't been quite good enough frequently enough to sustain an all-time classic rivalry. But when they have been good (1973-76, 1981, 1988, recently), the Steelers have been there. In last year's playoff game Kimo von Oelhoffen inadvertently lifted this one up a slot or two.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 5 of 8

See also Part 1 thru Part 4.

24. Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Maybe on paper this one shouldn't be so high. It's a very brief history, with no season other than 2001 where both were especially good and no easily remembered fantastic finish. But the games are typically brutally physical even by NFL standards, with lots of statements made and butts kicked, and the underdog often just destroying the favorite. Among other things the Ravens gave the Steelers their only regular season loss of 2004.

23. St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks. They've tended to rise to the top of the NFC West in their very brief rivalry, though it's hard to take "rise to the top" seriously when 9-7 is enough to take the division. They met in the playoffs two years ago and both games this year featured Josh Brown's last second game winning field goals.

22. Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans. There's the 1999 playoff game and the three onside kicks in a row game. Peyton Manning went to Tennessee. If this is higher than it should be, part of the problem was that I didn't look up the Baltimore Colts vs. Houston Oilers until now. I thought they'd have had more history than they actually do (aside from years they were both very bad).

21. New England Patriots vs. New York Jets. I admit it's a lot of coaching intrigue going down the Parcells-Belichick-Mangini lineage, but aside from that what do we really have here? It slots fine here but I can't honestly put it above any of what's higher.

20. Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants. Somehow I suspect each of these teams' fans thinks of the opponent as the least interesting divisional. The Giants' best seasons have eerily coincided with the Cowboys' slumps of the late 1980s and late 1990s, though both teams were good in 1993. (The Giants had a long stretch of scuffling from the late '60s to mid '80s, while the Cowboys were terrible in the early '60s and didn't exist prior to that.)

19. Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were the Bills' best division rival throughout their AFC Championship run. Buffalo had that spectacular stretch surrounded by decades of being nondescript. (Their best AFL seasons predated Miami's franchise existence.) Miami by contrast has been really good at taking second place.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 4 of 8

See also Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3

30. Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis leads the all-time series 9 to 3. This could have become much greater had they met in the playoffs after 1999 (Colts upset by Tennessee) or 2004 (Jacksonville had to play a wild card game at New England). This 2003 game might be the best between the two teams.

29. Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints. As NFC West opponents, both teams hit a high-water mark in 1991 after many, many, many years of futility. Atlanta even beat New Orleans in a wild card game that year. Otherwise these teams have a lot of weakness and irrelevance between them. Atlanta's 1998 Super Bowl run: Saints were 6-10 and suffocating under bad Ditka. This pairing does get some credit for the 2006 Superdome reopener.

28. Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was defending Super Bowl champion when this game happened; Carolina was Super Bowl bound. They were both 11-5 in 2005, though they appeared in separate wild card games (and Tampa Bay lost).

As assembled here, this list claims that literally every current NFC East or AFC West rivalry is better than literally every NFC South rivalry. Comment away.

27. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins. The redheaded stepchild of NFC East rivalries, as both teams tend to focus more on the Giants and Cowboys. Eagles franchise history features a lot of bleak years, while Washington has been blah through most of the Andy Reid era. They were both above average in the early 1980s when they won Super Bowls three years apart, though they were generally fighting for second place in the division.

26. Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers. You can go either way on this and the one below it (everything bunches up around here: the error bar might be five slots or so). The AFC West features three teams that just despise each other, and then the Chargers. This may be the rare case where a rivalry is more meaningful in fantasy football than real life: Tony Gonzalez vs. Antonio Gates. Larry Johnson (previously Priest Holmes) vs. LaDainian Tomlinson.

25. Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers. It's possible that the best year for this match-up is 2006.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 3 of 8

See also Part 1 and Part 2.

36. San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks. Highlights include the Sharpie game (in their first year as division rivals!) and the only exciting game in the history of the NFL Network less than two weeks ago. #36 is probably too high even so.

35. Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans. Aside from the Relocation Rivalry, as tempting as it would been to claim that Vince Young is the future of this rivalry, in truth it depends on the Texans taking enough of a leap forward to be viable and relevant. Otherwise it's more like "City of Houston vs. Titans."

34. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots. Drew Bledsoe isn't nearly good enough to be a cause celebre. Another "never good at the same time" situation: The Patriots were awful during the Bills' Super Bowl years and the Bills were still awful when New England had its good mid-1980s team. Aside from AFL 1964, the height of this rivalry was in the late 1990s, culminating in the 25-21 game where the Bills refused to take the field in protest after a bogus pass interference call helped with New England's game-winning drive. Adam Vinatieri walked the ball in for the two-point conversion, and the Pats covered the 3 1/2-point spread as a result.

33. Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams. Even as a Relocation Rivalry I'd been set to slot this much lower with snarky comments about Kurt Warner fumbling against his own team. But wait: In the 1970s the St. Louis football Cardinals were pretty good under Don Coryell. They even met the Los Angeles Rams in a playoff game once. Still, this is right about where the rivalries get meatier. (You'll notice still no NFC East or AFC West. I know exactly what the "worst" rivalry is in each but even both of those are too good to get to yet.)

32. Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers. From the Panthers-Saints comment you'd think this one should be right down there with that one (Falcons 3-13 in 1996, 5-11 in 2003, 8-8 in 2005). But oh my goodness, this game was good. Maybe it's problematic to vastly overweight what I've seen directly but so be it. Oh, also this game is awesome in its own way. A week earlier against Pittsburgh, Carolina looked as though it had completely quit. Yet here they were on the road sticking it to a division rival just when that rival had a chance to grab a playoff spot.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans. 1999 was a banner year for both teams, the start of a Tennessee run (after three straight years of 8-8, before the cap crunch) and end of Jackonville's Brunell era. I also idly wonder how much of a proxy boost this matchup gets from the Tennessee-Florida college football rivalry.

Still to come: All 6 NFC East, all 6 AFC West, 4 NFC North, 4 AFC North, 4 AFC East, 2 AFC South, 2 NFC South, 2 NFC West.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 2 of 8

See also Part 1

42. Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints. The Panthers have been around for 12 years and had three good seasons: 1996, 2003, and 2005. Two of those the Saints were 3-13. They were 8-8 in 2003. Twice that year Stephen Davis ran wild, both in a three-week span of October.

41. Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers. These two teams highly entertained me in 2004 with eerily similar 31-28 games here and here. They also brought regular season football to Mexico. Outside of that game and the Cardinals' new stadium opener, has anyone outside the Bay Area or Phoenix Metro ever actually planned around an ARI-SF game? Historical note: The St. Louis football Cardinals were pretty good in the mid-1970s under Don Coryell (this will be come relevant later) but this was in San Francisco's pre-Joe Montana wilderness years.

40. Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns. Does it surprise you that I slotted this lower than any other Relocation Rivalry? It shouldn't.

These teams' collective history goes back only to 1999. The NFL did the right thing keeping the Browns' franchise history in Cleveland and essentially disowning (if lacking the power to excommunicate) Art Modell. Since then, I'm sure Cleveland fans still hate the Ravens but they have no need even acknowledge the Ravens' existence enough to build it into a rivalry.

39. Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Remember the year that Marvis Lewis turned the Bengals into a respectable franchise and the lithmus test was beating Baltimore? In 2003 the Ravens won the division at 10-6 with Cincinnati at 8-8. They were both above average in 2004 but Pittsburgh went 15-1.

38. Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. The storyline at this point is that the Texans have never been good yet jump up and bite the Jaguars at the most inconvenient times. That kind of storyline isn't sustainable: The Texans are still new(ish) right now but will have to grow into a real team someday somehow.

37. Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings. Correction to a previous item: Detroit and Minnesota were both good in 1970. Meanwhile the Vikings and Bears were both good in 1988 (though San Francisco dispatched with both in the playoffs); aside from that, in Minnesota franchise history it's typically been true that the Vikings or Bears but not both were good. Note for example the shift from 2000 to 2001.

48 NFL Division Rivalries, Ranked: Part 1 of 8

Read on if so inclined.

There are currently eight four-team divisions in the NFL, each of which has six possible divisional pairings. Thus, 48 active division rivalries. (Some interesting inactive rivalries, like Steelers-Titans or Buccaneers-Packers or Colts-Jets, are beyond the scope of this exercise.)

I will post a very subjective bottom-to-top ranking of these pairs in order of interest. Comment away as you see fit. Later installments might include highlights from each rivalry but for this first batch it's hard to find specific nuggets without spending time that I don't have free.

48. Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks. Two of the teams most affected by realignment. They weren't in the same conference until 2002 and Arizona hasn't been relevant since then. No other division pairing comes close to this level of apathy.

47. Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts. Until this weekend the Texans had never beaten the Colts. That was a fantastic game on many levels but one game can only go so far to turn a laughingstock into something real.

46. Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Realignment also means that Tampa Bay doesn't have as much history against its division rivals (all of whom were in the 2001 NFC West). But at least there have been memorable CAR-TB games and seasons in which the Buccaneers and Saints were both good. Try to find either a season in which ATL and TB were both good, or a memorable game between the two. If you do let me know.

45. Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings. As big a factor as duration may be, if it were too much of a factor then the bottom of this list would be saturated with expansion teams. In the entire Viking franchise history these two teams have both been relevant in the same reason maybe twice: Those 1993-94 NFC Centrals when everyone clustered around 9-7.

44. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets. The Bills have rarely been any good: Aside from the Super Bowl appearance run there were the mid 1960s and late 1990s. The Jets were never part of this.

43. New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Every other plausible option has at least some hook, even if it's nothing better than "team abandons city, same city gets new team." (One or two of those are likely to hit the next installment.)

Strength of Victory: Who Packer/Giant Fans Should Root For in Week 17

As you've probably already read (if you care about this at all), wins by Green Bay and NY Giants would put those teams in at least a two-way tie for the last NFC playoff spot. The conference record tiebreak would whittle any multi-team tiebreak to those two. Neither conference record nor common opponents would break that tie (both teams would be 1-5 against common opponents, with each team's one win being part of a split against a division rival), so it would go to "strength of victory."

Oversimplifying a bit, eight games (other than the ones NYG & GB are in) matter, two of them twice as much as the rest. Packers need 7 of "10".

Green Bay fans root for: Detroit*, Minnesota*, Miami, Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, Cleveland, New Orleans

NY Giant fans root for: Dallas*, St. Louis*, Indianapolis, San Diego, Denver, Tampa Bay, Houston, Carolina

NYG victories:
Philadelphia = 9
Washington x2 (projected) = 10
Atlanta = 7
Dallas = 9
Tampa Bay = 4
Houston = 5
Carolina = 7
--> 51

GB victories:
Detroit x2 = 4
Miami = 6
Arizona = 5
Minnesota x2 = 12
San Francisco = 6
Chicago (projected) = 13
--> 50

Potential gains:
DAL-DET:Giants +1 or Packers +1
MIA-IND: Packers +1
ARI-SD: Packers +1
MIN-STL: Packers +2
SF-DEN: Packers +1
PHI-ATL: Giants +1 no matter what
SEA-TB: Giants +1
HOU-CLE: Giants +1
CAR-NO: Giants +1

The Real NFL Tiebreak Drama: #1 Draft Pick

Oakland and Detroit are both 2-13, likely to fall to 2-14. As you may know, the first draft order tiebreak for teams with the same record is strength of schedule (not "strength of victory" but full schedule). Counterintuitively Intuitively but unjustly, the NFL rewards the team that had a weaker schedule by giving it the better draft pick.

Raider fans should root for Minnesota, New England, Miami, Atlanta, Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Arizona.

Lions fans should root for St. Louis, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego.

Oversimplifying a bit, Oakland fans would need six of these to go their way. Not very likely since the teams Detroit is rooting for might be the favorites in all eight of these.

By some quick math just now, the Raiders' 16 opponents of 2006 represent 131 wins. (This counts the Jets as an opponent but doesn't credit anyone with a Week 17 victory yet.) The Lions' 16 opponents represent 127 wins. (Counting Dallas as an opponent but again not crediting anyone with a Week 17 win yet.)

Teams that both Oakland and Detroit face(d) in 2006: ARI, STL, SF, SEA, NYJ

Teams that Oakland faced twice and Detroit didn't face: DEN, KC, SD (30x2 = 60 wins on the Oakland ledger)

Teams that Oakland faced once and Detroit didn't face: BAL, CIN, CLE, PIT, HOU (36 more for Oakland)

Teams that Detroit faced twice and Oakland didn't face: CHI, GB, MIN (26 x 2 = 52)

Teams that Detroit face(d) once and Oakland didn't face: BUF, MIA, NE, DAL, ATL (40)

That's a 96-92 Detroit edge (ignoring common opponents), so still Oakland +4. (Remember, for our purposes the Raiders/Lions want the lower number.)

There are 16 teams whose Week 17 outcome is relevant (six of whom you have to double-count), 16 irrelevant.

Week 17 games:
(*-assume Raiders and Lions both lose: wins by both would be shocking, while a win-and-loss would mean no tiebreak needed)

NYG-WAS = irrelevant
SEA-TB = irrelevant
*-OAK-NYJ = irrelevant
CAR-NO = irrelevant
CHI-GB = either way Detroit +2
*-DET-DAL = Detroit +1
PIT-CIN = either way Oakland +1
CLE-HOU = either way Oakland + 1

(Factoring in games that won't change the differential, Oakland needs to make up 3+ from the rest.)

STL-MIN = possible Detroit +2
NE-TEN = possible Detroit +1
MIA-IND = possible Detroit +1
ATL-PHI = possible Detroit +1
BUF-BAL = Detroit +1 or Oakland +1
JAX-KC = possible Oakland +2
SF-DEN = possible Oakland +2
ARI-SD = possible Oakland +2

NFL Playoff Seed Update

Standings as of end of Christmas Eve. As always, doing this without any reference except the tiebreakers themselves, so if major media outlets have something different then they're probably right.

AFC
1. San Diego (13-2)
2. Baltimore (12-3)
--
3. Indianapolis (11-4, head-to-head over New England)
4. New England (11-4)
5. Denver (9-6, conference record on Jets even if New York wins tomorrow)
6. NY Jets (8-6, but would slot 8th between TEN & JAX if they lose at MIA)
--
7. Cincinnati (8-7, 6-5 conference)
8. Tennessee (8-7, better division record than Jacksonville, 5-6 conference)
9. Jacksonville (8-7, 5-6 conference)
10. Kansas City (8-7, 4-7 conference)

Baltimore can catch San Diego (head-to-head advantage) but nobody else can catch Baltimore. Division winners have clinched. Wild card scenarios after the jump.

NFC
1. Chicago (13-2)
2. New Orleans (10-5)
--
3. Dallas (9-5)
4. Seattle (8-7)
5. Philadelphia (8-6)
6. NY Giants (7-8, 6-5 conference, huge strength of victory lead over Green Bay)
--
7. Green Bay (7-8, 6-5 conference)
8. Carolina (7-8, 5-6 conference, division over Atlanta, head-to-head over STL)
9. Atlanta (7-8, 5-6 conference, slim strength of victory lead over St. Louis)
10. St. Louis (7-8)

NOTE: Both the NYG-GB tiebreak and ATL-STL would go to common opponents first, but neither would actually be settled at that stage.

Chicago has clinched #1 but Dallas can surpass New Orleans (because of the head-to-head they'd need to win out + Saints loss). Seattle is the #4 no matter what: They can't "catch" Dallas because they'd need the Cowboys to lose out, yet doing so would put Philadelphia and its superior conference record ahead of them.

Dallas is the only division winner that HASN'T clinched. They can do so by beating Philly, otherwise would need a Week 17 win plus Eagles' Week 17 loss.

Wild card scenarios after the jump.

Basic note on wild card scenarios: Although Kansas City's tiebreak over Denver can create transitivity problems, aside from that the pecking orders you see above tell you what you need to know.

AFC WILD CARD:
(Individual teams' needs can be derived from what you see below. Teams outside the AFC West want a Broncos loss and (counter-intuitively) a Chiefs WIN, otherwise they want to win and want their rivals to lose. In case of ties, KC > DEN even though DEN > (CIN > NYJ > TEN > JAX) > KC.)

I. Denver wins Week 17 vs. (San Francisco), clinches #5 seed

A. NY Jets win out (Miami, Oakland), clinch #6 seed
B. NY Jets split, finishing at 9-7.

1. Cincinnati wins (Pittsburgh). Cincinnati would get #6 seed. Tennessee's game (New England) and the Jacksonville-K.C. game would be irrelevant: Jags would lose division tiebreak to Titans, Chiefs would drop out of multiway tie because of bad conference record. Basically Bengals' better conference record would win any two-way or multi-way tiebreak.

2. Cincinnati doesn't win but Tennessee does. NY Jets would get #6 seed regardless of the KC-JAX outcome: Either Titans' division tiebreak over Jags or Chiefs' worst conference record would take it down to two teams, with Jets over Titans head to head. (Try going back to just before Week 1 and telling someone that the Jets-Titans game would decide a head-to-head playoff tiebreak. Weren't they supposed to be two of the league's five worst teams this year?)

3. Neither Cincinnati nor Tennessee wins. Jacksonsville would get the #6 with a win over KC and head-to-head tiebreak vs. Jets, otherwise Jets still get the #6 (better conference record than KC).

C. Jets lose out, finishing 8-8.

1. Cincinnati wins: Cincinnati would get the #6 seed (see above; Bengals don't have a head-to-head disadvantage against any relevant non-Bronco team).

2. Cincinnati doesn't win but Tennessee does: Tennessee would get the #6 (division vs. Jax or conference vs. KC)

3. Neither Cincinnati nor Tennessee wins. #6 goes to the KC-JAX winner. (If those two teams tied their game, Jacksonville would have conference advantage. Funky multi-team tiebreaks at 8-7-1 are a pointless exercise for the reader but in general the pecking order is CIN, NYJ, TEN, JAX, KC)

II. Denver loses to San Francisco

A. NY Jets wins out, clinching #5 seed

1. Kansas City wins, knocking out Denver on the divisional tiebreak. The #6 seed would go to Cincinnati if they won, else Tennessee if they won, else KC.

2. Kansas City doesn't win. #6 seed still goes to Denver.

B. NY Jets split, finishing at 9-7.

1. Kansas City wins.

a. Cincinnati wins: Cincinnati #5 seed, NY Jets #6 seed.
b. else Tennesee wins: NY Jets #5 seed, Tennessee #6 seed.
c. else NY Jets #5 seed, Kansas City #6 seed

2. Kansas City loses. Denver fans breathe sigh of relief (read: Jacksonville beating Kansas City would remove a lot of incentive for Broncos to try hard in their late game). Denver #5 seed, NY Jets #6 seed.

C. NY Jets lose out.

1. Kansas City wins.
a. Cincinnati and Tennessee both win: Cincy #5, Tenneseee #6
b. only one of those teams wins: that team #5, KC #6
c. neither of those teams wins: KC #5, Denver #6

2. Kansas City loses. Denver #5 seed.
a. Cincinnati wins: Cincinnati #6
b. else Tennessee wins: Tennessee #6
c. else Jacksonville #6

NFC WILD CARD:
Philadelphia (or Dallas) is the #5 unless Philly loses out . Even then Philly would have tie-break over NYG, a conference record advantage for any multi-team tiebreaks, and no potential head-to-head problems other than Atlanta.

Relevant week 17 games: ATL-PHI, NYG (at WAS), GB (at Chi), CAR (at NO), STL (at Min).

I. Philadelphia beats Dallas, leaving only a #6 available.
A. NY Giants win. Giants get the #6 almost no matter what. They don't have any head-to-head problems, and they do have a conference advantage against (teams other than Green Bay) plus a very hard to overcome strength of victory differential.

B. NY Giants lose, Green Bay wins. Packers have head-to-head problems against St. Louis but win any other scrum on conference record.

C. NY Giants and Green Bay lose. Pecking order is Carolina, Atlanta, St. Louis, or else (if all five relevant teams blew it) Giants backing in after all.

II. Philadelphia loses to Dallas but beats Atlanta.
Same scenarios as above except that obviously the Falcons aren't part of any pecking order.

III. Philadelphia loses out.
A. Atlanta wins; NY Giants, GB, Carolina all lose. Atlanta #5, Philadelphia #6 (head-to-head).

B. Any other outcome: For the #5 seed, Giants and Falcons potentially preempted by Eagles and Panthers (divisional tiebreak) (Falcons would be at best 6-6 in conference anyway). Teams with a 6-6 conference record fall out, leaving PHI and GB. Philadelphia gets the #5 on head-to-head. Resolution of the #6 seed is same as above.

FFL Championship: Image of the Day

Given the particular league's scoring system this is an astonishing point output.

All Vince Young Does Is Snatch Cut-Throat Points From My Grasp

I still don't quite understand how Buffalo blew their game today.

On the other hand, I have a profound aesthetic appreciation for the drive chart from today's Colts-Texans game. That's how you beat Peyton Manning: Sustain (and finish off) long drives of your own, then give him a little but not a lot. Time of game was approximately 2:40.

Obligatory FFL championship game angle: Marvin Harrison and mid-week pickup Ron Dayne for me. Meanwhile in overtime in St. Louis, S. Jackson for me and L. Betts for villain. He does have LaDainian but I have a massive, almost absurd lead. Either I'll win the league or it'll be the most impressive-for-both-teams fantasy football game I've ever been in.

Weird Decisions That Could Plausibly Decide a FFL Championship

Tatum Bell or Sammy Morris (who's starting Monday despite Brown's return)?

In a normal scoring system I'd lean to Morris, but this is a league where yardage points don't kick in until you hit 75 yards.

My "Jackson, Westbrook AND Parker" team (eliminated recently) weeps at the comparative strength. Note that Ron Dayne starts anyway either way (as does S. Jackson).

In theory I could start DeShaun Foster over {Bell or Morris}. (Began the season starting Jackson, Foster, and Bell.) I very much won't, though I could.

Fun NFL Tiebreak Facts

Every team that has played both Green Bay and NY Giants this season, has beaten them both this season. A New Orleans win at the Meadowlands this weekend would add the Saints to that group (which already includes Philadelphia, Chicago, and Seattle), and also (depending on how the Falcons do) actually give that stat potential playoff relevance.

If New England and NY Jets both finished 10-6, the Jets would claim the division based on conference record after the head-to-head (split), division (both 4-2), and common opponents* tiebreaks both failed to resolve anything. The relevant difference between their seasons would be that NYJ had beaten Tennessee and lost to Chicago, while NE did vice versa. For the games at Tennessee that's a Week 1 win against Kerry Collins (long before Vince Young cracked the lineup) versus a Week 17.

(Tiebreaks here. I'd forgotten that for ties within a division, conference comes before strength of victory. Speaking of that win against Chicago, Patriots have a distinct s.o.v. lead against Jets, 10 games even if you pre-counted NYJ wins against Miami and Oakland.)

*- In their non-common games: NYJ lost to CLE but would have beaten OAK; NE lost to DEN but beat CIN.

How Quickly Dr. Z Forgets

This is 24 points on 47 yards, a ratio below 2, no? And yet this column goes gaga over a ratio of 3.0?! What am I missing?

(With apologies to all the Steeler fans I know, that 24-6 game is my favorite NFL game of all time. With similar apologies to CDB et al, my all-time favorite NCAA Division 1 football game is Northwestern 54, Michigan 51. My all-time favorite high school football game is Plano East vs. John Tyler (as easily found on YouTube: search for it and watch, you won't regret it).)

Don Majkowski

Incidentally, do we all agree that he was over the line of scrimmage?

(I idly wonder how my audience breaks down between people who immediately get the reference, people who don't get the reference but do somewhat follow football, and people who don't care about it anyway.)

If you don't get the reference, it goes back to 1990 (give or take a year ) November 5, 1989. (I'll take a Deadspin commenter's word for it.)

Anyway, NFL Blackout Policies...

(see related rant one post below this)

Some Wisconsin cheeseheads won't be able to watch tonight's Packer game.

Ambiguous paragraph: Throughout the rest of the state, though, Packer fans will need a satellite dish to see a team many are religious about. And larger markets such as Madison, La Crosse and Eau Claire will be blacked out.

Does this mean that in Madison you specifically can't get the game even on satellite? Seems short-sighted, and perhaps contrary to the NFL on Television Wikipedia page.

The NFL decided in 1973 that if a home game is sold out then the relevant station(s) in the primary market can (indeed must) broadcast that game. Stations in a team's secondary market would typically also show a sold out home game. I wondered whether satellite feeds follow different rules, but per Wikipedia, satellite providers are subject to the same blackout rules as broadcast networks.

Team All-Time Thanksgiving Records

Name the active NFL franchise from its all-time Thanksgiving Day win-loss record through 2006. (Of course you should attempt this without looking it up before you do look it up.)

NOTE: Following up on an earlier item, 2007 is likely to feature New England at Dallas as the late-afternoon Thanksgiving game. (They could go with the Jets but I doubt it.)

A. 11 wins, 20 losses

B. 2 wins, 8 losses

C. 5 wins, 1 loss (either of two answers is acceptable)

D. 16 wins, 14 losses, 2 ties

E. 0 wins, 1 loss

F. 35 wins, 31 losses

G. 1 win, 1 loss (either of two answers is acceptable: one team played in 1980 and 1986, the other in 1965 and 2004)

H. No Thanksgiving games, despite already existing as of the AFL-NFL merger (either of two answers is acceptable)

I. 25 wins, 14 losses

J. 3 wins, 5 losses (five of those games were in the AFL; the others in 1975, 1976, and 1994)

K. 1 win, 0 losses

L. 7 wins, 6 losses, most recent appearance in 1992

Tim Keown Knows What He's Talking About

"The level of play in the [National Football League] -- in terms of team, not individual -- has never been worse."
--Keown

Really? Worse than 1926? Worse than 1944? On strength and conditioning alone a 2006 NFL team could probably manhandle a team as recent as the early 1970s. Factor in technological improvements, better play-scheming (e.g. the zone blitz), and this parody is probably even closer to the truth for football than for baseball.

Typical of Keown's football expertise is his very next item:
How bad is it?: The Chargers seem to be the best we've got, and they're thriving on the basis of one fantastic player, a better-than-average defense and not much else.

Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson has these great games single-handedly. Nope, his blocking fullback and his offensive line have nothing to do with it. Thank you, Tim. Don't forget to cash that paycheck.

But at least Keown is aware the San Diego Chargers exist, unlike (if his "why can't the Jets go all the way?" Monday column is any indication) NY Times columnist William C. Rhoden.

(It's behind the TimesSelect iron curtain, and even if I were at home with the hard copy available (we might have recycled it already) I wouldn't feel like typing it in.)

Oh, speaking of ESPN football writers: I realized while reading this morning's Tuesday Morning Quarterback that every TMQ column really is alike (warning: link prominently features explicit language).

Gratuitous Fantasy Football Story

As mentioned way too often here: My juggernaut team (M. Vick, S. Jackson, B. Westbrook, with W. Parker typically on the bench) inexplicably lost its quarterfinal match. My good-but-unlucky team (Brees, Gore, Marvin H., Colston) was second best scorer of a 14-team league but missed the playoffs. My bad-but-lucky team (S. Jackson, Marvin, Plaxico) sneaked into the playoffs and won its quarterfinal.

The other three semifinalists scored:
72 points (LaDainian, T. Owens, no Monday players)
62 points (W. Parker, balanced scoring, but 0 from Chris Henry)
28 points (killed by L. Johnson, A. Gates, no Monday players)

My team had 52 points going into last night but got 22 from Marvin Harrison to hit 74. Obviously the quality of this story depends on which of the other three teams I actually faced this weekend. (I'll leave it at that.)

Biggest Non-Conference Gaqme of NFL 2007

One in particular blows the rest out of the water. Try to guess first without looking it up, then look it up.

(This popped into my head this morning without looking it up. I wasn't even thinking along those lines. Bonus question: I got there from random memories of which 2003 Monday night game (that doesn't involve either of the two teams in the big 2007 matchup)?)

Nice Job Guys... But A Week Late

(Or a week early, if you go gaga over 5th vs. 6th place.)

Does my heart good all the same, I guess.

Road Transitivity

Since any football team can win any given home game, transitivity chains that involve a home underdog winning are overrated. This year in the NFL, though, an impressive road chain is setting itself up:

San Francisco won at Seattle.
Seattle won at Denver.
Denver won at Pittsburgh (and at New England).
Pittsburgh won at Carolina.
Carolina won at Baltimore.

Oakland, Detroit, and Tampa Bay will probably miss out on the party this year (though "Tampa Bay won at Chicago" would've been nifty for road transitivity), just as Indianapolis and San Diego are impregnable.

Games that uniquely add one team or another to this circle:
Miami won at Chicago.
Houston won at Jacksonville.
Arizona won at St. Louis.
Washington won at New Orleans.

(New Orleans over Dallas is also quite helpful.)

Proof of 27 teams worth of complete road transitivity, after the jump.

A. Arizona won at St. Louis, who won at Green Bay, who won at Miami, who won at Chicago, who won at Arizona. (That's a five-team circle.)

B. Cleveland won at Atlanta, who won at Carolina, who won at Baltimore, who won at Cleveland (four-team circle).

C. Dallas won at Tennessee, who won at Washington, who won at New Orleans, who won at Dallas (four more teams).

C to B: Dallas won at Atlanta
B to C: Baltimore won at Tennessee (and also at New Orleans).

A to B: Green Bay won at San Francisco, who won at Seattle, who won at Denver, who won at Pittsburgh, who won at Carolina.

B to A: Baltimore won at Kansas City, who won at Arizona.

18 teams down, 14 to go. (Actually 9 to go.)

D: NY Jets won at New England, who won at Buffalo, who won at NY Jets

Hooking up group D: NY Jets won at Tennessee, Denver won at New England.

E: Houston won at Jacksonville, who won at Philadelphia, who won at Houston

Hooking up group E: Philadelphia won at Washington, Washington won at Houston.

Hooking up NYG: NY Giants won at Philadelphia but Dallas won at NY Giants.

Hooking up CIN: Cincinnati won at Pittsburgh, New England won at Cincinnati.

Hooking up MIN: Minnesota won at Washington, Chicago won at Minnesota.

So for the 27 teams who are neither undefeated at home nor winless on the road, that'll do it.

Week 17

NBC's Sunday night game seems very likely to be Atlanta at Philadelphia (second guess would be JAX-KC).

CBS doesn't necessarily have to move a game from 1 p.m. to 4:05. (They don't have a doubleheader, Fox already has SF-DEN at 4:15.) I wonder whether they've move JAX-KC, or move a dog, or just not have a late option at all.

Regular-Season Football by Night

Dallas will have played three straight regular-season evening games (vs. New Orleans Sunday night on NBC, at Atlanta Saturday night on NFL Network, vs. Philly Christmas night on NBC). Has this ever happened before?

The Christmas game also marks their sixth straight nationally televised game (if you count NFL Network as "nationally televised"). Hmm, given blackouts and alternate games (San Francisco and Arizona got no late CBS broadcast the day of the Colts-Cowboys game; SF and Miami got no late Fox broadcast the day of DAL-NYG, while central Florida and Appalachia got TB-PIT instead), maybe this isn't quite "national," though certainly more than regional.

(I presume Detroit at Dallas will be regional only. Oh, and even though DAL-AZ was a 4:15 game, Fox balkanized things that week between DAL-AZ, STL-SEA, and that great NO-PIT game.)

Useless trivia: Maybe someone has already pointed this out, but did you notice what all of this year's NFL Network games other than Dallas-Atlanta have in common?

More useless trivia: 2006 Dallas Cowboy home games by time:
Sunday night = 2 (WAS, NO)
Monday night = 2 (NYG, PHI on Christmas)
Sunday noon = 2 (HOU, DET)
Sunday late-afternoon = 1 (IND)
Thursday late-afternoon = 1 (TB on Thanksgiving)

NFL Playoff Update

If the season ended this instant:

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2)
2. Indianapolis (10-3), strength of victory over Baltimore
--
3. Baltimore (10-3)
4. New England (9-4)
5. Cincinnati (8-5, conference record over Jacksonville)
6. Jacksonville (8-5)

Jets, Chiefs, Broncos all a game out.

If Indianapolis and Baltimore both won out, their tiebreak would be common games: Colts have split Tennessee, beaten Denver, beaten Buffalo, face Cincinnati Monday; Ravens have split Cincinnati, beaten Tennessee, lost to Denver, face Buffalo week 17.

You'd think KC could clinch the playoffs by winning out (week 17 victory over Jacksonville would not only catch them up but also give them head-to-head). They'd also have a tiebreak over Denver (in-division would be resolved first), but their lousy conference record would kill them in a three-team tiebreak. (Oddity: KC is 7-1 against AFC West or NFC West teams, 0-5 otherwise.)

Denver's tiebreak situation is funny: Great division record would help them in a 3+ team tiebreak but not if KC preempted them.

Other potentially relevant head-to-heads: CIN over KC, CIN@DEN still to come, JAX over NYJ.

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2)
2. New Orleans (9-4) (even at 9-5 would have head-to-head on Dallas)
--
3. Dallas (9-5)
4. Seattle (8-6)
5. NY Giants (7-6, head-to-head on Philadelphia)
6. Philadelphia (7-6)

Loser of NYG-PHI falls to 7-7, along with Atlanta. Carolina could improve to 6-7 today as could Minnesota. Relevant head-to-heads: ATL over CAR (but a rematch is coming), NYG over ATL, PHI-ATL still to come, PHI over CAR, NYG over CAR (Panthers in trouble: not even a good conference record), CAR over MIN for what it's worth (but seems very unlikely that those two would have a two-team tiebreak for a playoff spot).

Rookie Restaurant Tab Hazing Convergence

Two stories, both from Football Outsiders and both with a San Diego angle (though one took place in New Orleans involving a guy who wouldn't reach San Diego for several more years):

One night, when [Lorenzo] Neal and [Mario Bates were at the same bar, Neal continually told the rookie that as a veteran he was entitled to drinks at Bates' expense. When Bates refused to buy, Neal slugged him — breaking his jaw and putting him out of commission for four weeks. Although Neal wasn't disciplined by either the team or the league, the incident remains a black mark in Neal's career.
--Michael David Smith

[Filmmaker Tim] Carr is also recreating an alleged incident in which Junior Seau tricked the rookie [Ryan] Leaf into buying an expensive dinner for the Chargers’ veterans. Leaf refused to pay, so Seau (so the story goes) ignored Leaf’s red practice jersey and sacked him the next day in practice, standing over the millionaire rookie and taunting, “Will you pay now?”
--Mike Tanier

Tonight in Bay Area Sports

49ers, Warriors, and Sharks all on the radio at the same time. (Thanks to 49ers and Warriors, no classic rock available on my drive home - also no Dick Enberg and Sam Wyche for the football - but I'll live.)

Dramatic wins for the 49ers and Warriors at least.

Anyhow, the distinctive background sounds of these radio broadcasts were the squeaking sneakers on the basketball court, the skates slooshing through ice, and the deafening boos of jilted Seahawk fans.

Gregg Easterbook Knows Who Signs His Paycheck

In the midst of an otherwise correct/compelling point about why it would be a blunder for the NFL to broadcast all of its games in-house, TMQ goes into full-on suckup mode:

Specifically, the NFL seems insufficiently appreciative of how much value has been added to its product by ESPN. There's a zany energy about ESPN no in-house broadcasting will ever offer. ESPN made it OK to [...] and I stopped reading at that point.

Willie Parker Update

Starting Steven Jackson over Willie Parker cost me... one point.

(Brian Westbrook was 15 points inferior to Parker (and 12 points inferior to Reggie Bush) but benching Westbrook would have been at best the third configuration I thought of.)

Michael Jenkins and Reche Caldwell killed me, which is understandable given that they're Michael Jenkins and Reche Caldwell. A week after killing me in my lineup, Bernard Berrian and Devery Henderson both had big games on by bench.

Henderson over (receiver other than Isaac Bruce) would have won it, except that I'd have been more likely to bench Bruce than the other two.

Matt Leinart over Michael Vick would have won it, but I'd have had to be psychic.

I hate losing a big playoff game in which the other team really didn't do jack except that my own team did even less jack. At least a shootout would've been respectable.

Sports "Characters," Post-Ali

I hate myself for giving any respect whatsoever to the ESPN Hype Machine, but since actual sports columnists have taken up this fake issue, I'll answer the headline question ("Who now qualifies as true sports character?"):

Depending on what you mean by "character," one or more of:
A. Barry Bonds
B. Michael Jordan
C. Dennis Rodman
D. Ray Lewis
E. none of the above, because this is an artificial construct. "There's nobody else quite like Ali": NO JOKE. There's also nobody else quite like Bill Clinton, Mia Hamm, Craig Barker, Dennis Haysbert, or any of dozens of completely random people who happen to fill unusually distinct niches.

(If he hadn't subsequently fallen into complete obscurity (like the athlete equivalent of long-forgotten albums on this Onion list), the best comp for this new media repackaging of Ali would be Jim McMahon. I idly wonder whether McMahon would be better known to today's generation if all those Superfans sketches hadn't funneled all Bears nostalgia entirely into the Ditka legend. Incidentally, have you read any of the posts on [it was either Baseball Think Factory or Football Outsiders] by the guy who argues vehemently (and convincingly!) that Ditka was a terrible coach and the most overrated figure ever?)

Netflix 1, ESPN Bowl Pick Em 0

How hard could it be to let users rank a 1-to-32 queue without actively thwarting their efforts by either guessing wrong or just not taking their input at all?

Fantasy Football As We Know It

Will anyone win a league this year without happening to have LaDainian Tomlinson? Just as well given that he's easily the best skill position player in football.

On the opposite end of things:

Mike Karney?!

Artose Pinner?!

FFL Playoff Update

Two 3-vs.-6 games and the 6-seed is likely to win both. Too bad the money league is the one where I'm on the wrong end of the potential upset.

I Wish I Could Quit You (easily the worst of my three teams this year, probably the worst playoff-bound FFL team I've ever had): Up 47-20 in a league where yardage severely devalued (some fixed amount of points for hitting 75, 100, 125, etc.). Monster day from free agent pickup Josh Scobee (the Elam injury risk couldn't have happened at a better time). Lead about to increase: Tatum Bell 65 rushing yards in the first quarter alone. Nice game from Plaxico; Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne canceled each other out; Jeff Garcia outplayed Jon Kitna.

Yes, Jeff Garcia vs. Jon Kitna in an FFL playoff game. My bench QB is Jay Cutler (picked him up right when the rumor of Plummer's benching hit, though it was very bad timing to drop Vince Young); dropped Rex Grossman to get Garcia this week.

^@^ (arguably the best regular-season FFL team I've ever had) suddenly lost the ability to get any points at all from the WR spots: Averaging 1.0 points per player (i.e. 10 yards, 0 TD) over the last two weeks; I suspect Isaac Bruce will lift that average a teeny bit tomorrow night. Very bad time for both Hines Ward and Joe Horn to go down. Of course the strategic mistake is failing to trade one of (B. Westbrook, S. Jackson, W. Parker, two RB spots no flex) for receiver help. "But what if one of my stud RB had gotten hurt?!?!?" Well, WR also have the ability to get hurt (as we've learned), and even at that my fourth-best RB is a guy named Reggie Bush who I've heard is pretty good.

Oh, my opponent in this game also picked up Jeff Garcia and started him (though I think he'd previously had McNabb). Coincidentally, both of my FFL opponents this week had Eli Manning on their bench. Anyhow, the ineffective Michael Vick showed up this weekend (one point: I shall cherish that one point evermore).

He Knows When I Start Him, He Knows When I Bench Him

Willie Parker just knows.

I wouldn't have minded tonight's performance on Sunday.

Cut-Throat Transitivity

If you look at the spreadsheet that Craig put on-line, my picks are already in through Week 17 (and have been for a couple weeks now).

There's a very nifty proof* that if you pick every team at least once then there's a subset of N teams within which you've predicted a circle.

Assuming no changes (and I don't plan any, even though my endgame depends heavily on a Vince Young implosion), my teams picked against:
SF (6 times) [4-for-4, 2 to go]
CLE, NYJ, OAK (4 times each) [total of 7-for-9, 3 to go]
TEN (3 times) [0-for-1, 2 to go]
DET, GB, HOU, WAS (2 each) [5-for-7, both misses vs. GB, GB over DET to go]
ARI, JAX, MIN [3-for-3]

My "pick tree" turns out to be two completely separate trees. That means I have two pick circles. One is just DET and GB beating each other (that used to be the ARI/SF part of my pick tree, though this year there was some reason I couldn't do that, so instead I lucked into SF upsetting MIN) -- note that I picked against the Packer twice this year and it bit me both times. The other is CLE over NYJ (did happen), NYJ over OAK (likely to happen), and OAK over CLE (didn't happen).

So working up from my smaller tree: MIN and DET over GB (as mentioned, both failed, and GB over DET is TBA). Level 2: NE over DET (my only other time picking the Lions to lose), SF over MIN. Level 3: six teams over SF, and (Level 4) ATL over ARI (my only time picking against the Buzzsaw; it worked).

Working up from the bigger tree: Four teams over OAK, Level 2 is four more teams over NYJ (including CLE for the circle) [but TEN-NYJ bit me Week 1]. Level 3: IND over JAX (Colts are good enough to take whichever home game is most convenient), three teams over TEN [WAS already bit me, other two actually still to come], three teams over CLE. Level 4: DAL and NYG over HOU; TB and PHI over WAS.

*- For each team there exists some other team that you predicted that team would beat. For that other team there exists at least one [etc.], so you could create a string a million lines long (or any arbitrary length) of "Team A beats Team B, Team B beats Team C..." If there are only 32 teams in the league then at some point you're mentioning a team that you already mentioned.

Two College Football Lines of Arguments That Annoy Me

1. "To play for the national championship, you must first win your conference."

Well, gosh, I can't ever imagine a situation where the two best teams in the country would happen to come from the same conference? Can you?

2. "Teams X and Y are the two best teams in the country, but Team Z belongs in the title game because [spurious justification here]."

I was under the impression that the two teams that played for a championship would be the BEST TWO teams, not two of the best N. Forgive me for being so mistaken.

I'm willing to believe that Florida was the second-best team in college football this fall. But if your argument rests on some other claim, then don't even bother with it.

(How would this season have turned out if this happened to be an odd-numbered year with a rivalry game in Ann Arbor instead of Columbus?)

Empathy for the Michigander

Regardless of how the humans and/or computers see it, while Florida does have a strong case to play in a national championship game, it's not a god-given right.

Should Michigan be ranked #2 tomorrow, Florida's case for being "robbed" would be significantly weaker than, for example, Boise State's case. In fact I'm not convinced that Florida played a more difficult schedule than Boise State did.

(As many comments have pointed out, my claims about Florida's strength of schedule were way off base. I stand by my claims that Florida's politicking was distasteful, and that losing a three-point game on the road is roughly comparable to tying at a neutral site. So re Craig, I'd like to think that if Ohio State had lost at home by three points, the distaste for a rematch would actually be greater than in the present situation. Of course, when it comes to college football voters, "I'd like to think" has little bearing on reality.)

While I understand why so many people buy into this "you had your shot at Ohio State" argument, it's... bogus is too strong a word, as it makes some sense, but it's certainly not decisive. Michigan lost a three-point game on the road that at a neutral site could have gone either way*.

Precisely because a fan base appears to be setting itself up for misplaced "we wuz robbed" martyrdom, I hope Michigan does indeed get the #2 spot (if I understand BCS computer rankings correctly then this seems to mean that I hope humans markedly disagree with computers, since Florida is very likely to be the computer polls' #2). Then maybe next time around it won't be 62-0 cakewalks against the Western Carolinas of the world.

*- OF COURSE I'm not saying they shouldn't be penalized for losing a game. But they already have been, exactly as much as in the same manner that Florida was for losing to Auburn. Quality of opponent matters greatly; specific identity of opponent (that "you've already had a shot at Ohio State" trope), not so much.

Michigan's only loss was to Ohio State itself, on the road by three points. Florida lost to Auburn, which of course should be much more damning than a loss at Columbus. Boise State never lost at all, but [strength of schedule etc.]

Ombudsmen In Need of Second-Order Ombudsmen

Disappointing column:

Michael Irvin vs. Jimmy Snyder. There's one obvious difference between the two, and it's also biggest difference between Michael Richards and Chris Rock. Yes, there are things black can say that white people can't say. That's just life.

Bobby Knight vs. that guy's chin: Non story. If grabbing someone's chin to get them to "listen up" is anything other than routine then a whole lot of teachers and coaches across the Great Plains have some 'splaining to do. The problem isn't that they covered anything too soon, it's that some stories are demonstrably unworthy of saturation coverage.

NFL Network Schadenfreude

I'd been amazed by the NFL's marketing/PR chutzpah: charging high fees to cable providers for the NFL Network, then attempting to spark a viewer outcry when those cable companies refused to pay the high access fees, trying to spin it as though "[Cable Company X] isn't letting you see these NFL games" when more accurately that company just wasn't going to overpay.

With that in mind I'm glad both of the first two NFL Network games have (based on the box scores and recaps) been snoozers. Nice try, NFL: Now get real and charge a price that a sane cable company actually would pay.

(But don't mistake me for a cable company shill: In a mostly unreleated market, even though cable pipes ought to be a far superior technology than (for example) phone lines, I think the caliber of most cable company employees and executives is the biggest reason why cable and phone are in a pitched battle for Internet access customers rather than cable completely dominating that field.)

When/Why Did the NFL Loosen Up Its Schedule?

I had assumed (for no particular reason) that the NFL would go out of its way to prevent teams from having three straight home games, or three straight road games. Apparently that's no longer true (if it ever was).

Philadelphia had no road games in weeks 8-11 (home, bye, home, home). They have back-to-back-to-back road games, against all three division rivals, weeks 14-16. WTF?

Chicago's last three games have been at New York, at New York, and at New England. Even if the first two are different opponents, it's the same stadium. Wouldn't the Northeast get tiresome after awhile?

Body Language

Interesting article here. In context the accompanying photo of Tonya Reiman is even more interesting.

Best comment making use of the phrases "Read Their Bodies" and/or "Enlarge This Image" wins.

Demonstrably False Sports Statement of the Day

68-14? Not enough: Since the whole BCS deal might come down to "style points," it's probably a good idea for UCLA not to expect Pete Carroll to let up if he gets a big lead.
--Tim Keown (bold typeface in original)

What do you know about the different computer rankings?[...] None of the rating systems consider margin of victory.
--BCS FAQ

Do you think Keown even considered getting his facts straight before shooting his mouth keyboard off? (Maybe he's just insinuating that coaches and/or Harris voters would overemphasize margin of victory?)

The only two things I know about college football and the quest to designate a national champion:

1. Most of the blame for any flaws in the system is placed (unfairly) on computer polls, even though

2. At least 99% of the problems with the system are caused by human judgment error unrelated to how the computer polls function

Another NY Times Oddity

According to the front page of yesterday's NY Times sports section, it's "luck" that U$C faced such difficult opponents this year.

To Rematch, Or...

I think there's nothing wrong with a rematch in college football's BCS Championship game, since it's not as though winning a shootout by three points at home is definitve proof of one team's supremacy.

That said, I don't think the status of a (non)rematch is or should be relevant to how BCS standings are set up.

Mainly, I'm disappointed in two things:
1. Apparently anyone who actually looked at the formulas was aware before the USC-Notre Dame game that a Trojan win would put them into the #2 spot, yet all the hype that week was for Michigan still being at #2 in that week's poll.

2. Nobody seems to be taking Boise State seriously. (Just kidding, sort of.)

Predict the Flex Game

I thought of this hours too late to take a stab at Week 14 (and obviously way too late to take a stab at the previous flex weeks).

That said, NBC's Week 15 Sunday night game is all but guaranteed to be...

Kansas City at San Diego.

Fantasy Football Update

First time in several weeks that I've had nothing riding on Monday night anywhere. (In theory the Seahawks could convert Julian Peterson from LB to RB and have him lose four fumbles without doing anything useful. In theory. Along these lines, the scoring system of the league I'm in on Foxsports.com seems to give each team defense at least six points no matter what. Last week I went into Monday night trailing by four points but starting the NYG defense [and Plaxico, but let's just suppose I only had the NYG D]. Apparently I was rooting for a non-forfeit.)

"Nobody cares [etc.]"

^@^ (CFFL: Coen et al, largely Bostonian, on ESPN.com): Won this week to improve to 9-3. Highest scoring team in the league, but need to win a Week 13 showdown to get a first-round playoff bye. As this is my only "money" league (just realized as I typed this that I never did pay (hi Mark)), need to win at least one of the next two to guarantee at least breaking even.

Michael Vick may be falling apart in real life but for fantasy purposes I'll take 166 rushing yards from any position. (Certainly when the alternatives are Matt Leinart and post-alien-possession Rex Grossman.)

B. Westbrook, S. Jackson, and W. Parker collectively make a nice problem to have (since only two can start). This week benching Parker turned out to be quite correct; two weeks ago it wasn't but I got away with it. And I love my elite Individual Defensive Players (Peppers, Peterson (filling in for Ray Lewis), and Adrian Wilson).

I Wish I Could Quit You (Howe Alumni League: former Howe Sportsdata employees, on Foxsports.com): 6-6 and on the fringe of the playoffs despite being a ridiculously bad team. Rex Grossman is the best quarterback (picking up Jay Cutler may be useful though it was very much a bad time to drop Vince Young). For much of the season Tatum Bell and DeShaun Foster were 2/3 of the rushing attack... now? Team strength was supposed to be WR but Marvin and Plaxico both disappeared about a month ago. Despite all that, insane scheduling/matchup luck has kept this team from being something like 3-9.

Warner Wolfmother (Silicon Desert Fight Club: ASU guys et al, on Yahoo!): 4-8 despite a performance record that would lead you to expect about 7-5. Drew Brees, Frank Gore, and Marques Colston (qualifying at TE!), albeit absurdly little support after that.

The Excitement of NFL Football Through the Technical Wizardry of On-Line Scoreboard Pages

This recap seems to miss the big story of Arizona-Minnesota, which is that the Vikings came perilously close to a huge letdown. I'll admit to muttering "c'mon Matty" under my breath while following the very end of this on 30-second refresh. This for a team in which I have no interest, led by a quarterback who left his pregnant girlfriend for a celebrity skank.

(Fantasy angle: The 99-yard fumble return, on a play that was meant to give the Vikings a 38-13 lead, came from Adrian Wilson. I love leagues with Individual Defensive Players.)

Meanwhile I don't know what's going on in San Diego but for Cut Throat strategery I wish I'd stuck to the original plan of Jets vs. Houston (and San Diego vs. whoever in Week 17) instead of changing when I noticed that I could get "Team facing the Raiders" two additional times given a simple tweak. The Aaron Brooks interception was reassuring, the Chargers' ensuing failure to move the ball, not so much.

(Is this where the national media honeymoon ends for Phil Rivers? I swear I saw more fawning profiles of him this week... unless it was the same story just carried a lot of places.)

A putative Bronco fan should be rooting against the Chargers here for divisional reasons, right? But rooting against the Raiders is the much more deeply ingrained tradition.

A College Football Clip That Should Not Have Upset Me, Yet Did

I'm not a college football fan by any means, and I have no stake with the teams involved either, and most of all I knew exactly what was going on here, but this clip is still almost unwatchably aggravating.

Underreported detail: Listen to the sudden chorus of loud boos just before the final "play" of the game. Is it more likely that:

A. The Missouri fans are psychic, and somehow know that the Colorado runner will cross the goal line.

B. The Missouri fans KNOW HOW TO COUNT TO FIVE (unlike the broadcasters, who apparently got no help at all from the truck).

Unfunny and Unoriginal

Even so,