Raiders owner Al Davis just did to Lane Kiffin pretty much the same thing he did to Mike Shanahan, only with a lot less money at stake and (as far as I remember) without the gratuitously nasty press conference.
This in a nutshell is why no matter how bad the Raiders get, and no matter how many of their fans deserve better, the franchise itself richly deserves a million times worse, until the day Mr. Davis departs this mortal coil.
This* is also why I shouldn't mind so much (nor be so surprised) that Shanahan can at times be a ripe bastard. He came from the NFL equivalent of a broken home.
*- well, that and the back-to-back Super Bowl wins at the end of Elway's career
"This is a huge week for pickups because there are six teams on a bye in Week 4. The Giants, Colts, Patriots, Lions, Seahawks and Dolphins all take the week off, which means a lot of holes. For you … and your Week 4 opponent. I suggest looking very carefully at what you need and, just as importantly, what your opponent needs. Because you may not need a quarterback, but if you are playing the guy who has one of the Mannings, why not grab Trent Edwards, who has a sweet matchup at St. Louis, and have him sit on your bench instead of racking up the yards for your opponent?"
--the strangest on-topic paragraph The Talented Mr. Roto has written in awhile.
"Yeah, Trent Edwards would otherwise have been the best use of my last roster spot, but the guy I'm playing this week actually lost Tom Brady way back when, so... heck with it, I'll grab a wide receiver."
NFL.com has team by team video galleries: I highly recommend clicking any link that looks like "Sharks 17, Jets 14" (you'll get Radio calls and video highlights of the [team name] win over the [team name] in Week [n].).
I recommend AGAINST any link that looks like "NFL Game Day: Sharks vs. Jets highlights." If I had Eisen, Deion Sanders, and Steve Mariucci in the same room with just one bullet, I'd face quite the dilemma.
Did Steven Jackson start this or is he just the latest in a longer line?
Now we have Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson of Tennessee, and I'm sure I'm missing a few. Wouldn't you just tackle them by the back of their hair?
Of the 32 most likely starting quarterbacks in this coming weekend's NFL games, there is a 28-way tie for second-most-common first name (at one quarterback apiece).
Can you give:
1. The most common first name among current NFL starting quarterbacks?
2. All four of the starting QBs with that name?
3. At least one backup QB with that name?
(There may be others, but even if so, one is distinctly more well-known than the others. That's even more true now than it was 48 hours ago.)
With the usual apathy caveats. 4 teams, 68 roster spots. Six Pittsburgh Steelers (five distinct, none of them Roethlisberger); four each of Bears, Broncos, Colts, and Texans; no Patriots, Chargers, or Ravens.
Players on more than one team:
Chris Johnson (RB-TEN) (3 - apparently I believe the hype)
Matt Ryan (QB-ATL)
Willie Parker (RB-PIT)
Matt Forte (RB-CHI)
Maurice Morris (RB-SEA)
Reggie Wayne (WR-IND)
Andre Johnson (WR-HOU)
Isaac Bruce (WR-SF)
Eddie Royal (WR-DEN)
James Hardy (WR-BUF)
Mason Crosby (K-GB)
The 10-team league teams feel stacked until one remembers that those are 10-team leagues. The 14-team league team has an epic WR bounty, but two of these teams have almost comical QB issues.
1. 10-team keeper-ish league with Individual Defensive Players: QB, RB(2), WR/TE(3), K, DL, LB, DB.
QB Donovan McNabb PHI
Jon Kitna DET
RB Steven Jackson STL
Willie Parker PIT
Matt Forte CHI
Chris Johnson TEN
Ricky Williams MIA
Maurice Morris SEA
WR Roddy White ATL
Larry Fitzgerald ARI
Santonio Holmes PIT
Laveranues Coles NYJ
Isaac Bruce SF
James Hardy BUF
K Phil Dawson CLE
DL Jared Allen MIN
LB DeMeco Ryans HOU
DB Adrian Wilson ARI
Bob Sanders IND
QB Matt Schaub HOU
Matt Ryan ATL
RB Brian Westbrook PHI
Darren McFadden OAK
Matt Forte CHI
Chris Johnson TEN
Justin Fargas OAK
Kevin Jones CHI
WR Reggie Wayne IND
Andre Johnson HOU
Steve Smith CAR
Ronald Curry OAK
Isaac Bruce SF
Sidney Rice MIN
Eddie Royal DEN
TE Tony Gonzalez KC
Tony Scheffler DEN
K Mason Crosby GB
D/ST Jaguars JAX
3. 14-team keeper league (almost dynastic): QB, RB(2), RB/WR, WR(2), TE, K, Team D/ST.
QB Marc Bulger STL
Matt Ryan ATL
RB Selvin Young DEN
Willie Parker PIT
Maurice Morris SEA
DeAngelo Williams CAR
Jamaal Charles KC
WR Reggie Wayne IND
Andre Johnson HOU
Marques Colston NO
Eddie Royal DEN
James Hardy BUF
TE Heath Miller PIT
Dustin Keller NYJ
K Jeff Reed PIT
D/ST Bears CHI
4. 12-team ordinary redraft league with shallow benches.
QB Peyton Manning IND
Kurt Warner ARI
RB Clinton Portis WAS
Reggie Bush NO
Chris Perry CIN
Chris Johnson TEN
Rashard Mendenhall PIT
WR Plaxico Burress NYG
Calvin Johnson DET
Joey Galloway TB
Patrick Crayton DAL
TE Donald Lee GB
K Mason Crosby GB
D/ST Seahawks SEA
Tentatively I think ESPN has surpassed Yahoo! again, at least for football. This is mainly for the UI but also from very tentative server load observations in a so-small-it's-meaningless sample size.
As of 2007 Yahoo! was light years ahead of ESPN for baseball, though the free live scoring gave ESPN a football edge. With apologies to any employee of any other outfit, from my limited observations no other outlet even comes close to those two.
The Animal Conference would have Cats, Horses & Beasts, Birds, and Air & Sea; the Man-and-Superman Conference would have Big Bosses, Workers, Pillagers, and Other.
UPDATE: Richard wins the thread.
14 of the 32 NFL teams are explicitly named after animals; the Buffalo Bills would be a 15th if you treated buffaloes (as seen on their logo) as their nickname rather than just a pun on the city -- but I couldn't make this exercise work with the Bills as a "buffalo" team.
14 of the 32 NFL teams have distinctly human or super-human logos.
Of the four ambiguities, two are aerial phenomena that it makes more sense to treat as non-human; one (the aforementioned Buffalo Bills) has an animal logo but the name just as clearly pays homage to a person; and the other is a color that was adopted because of the owner's last name.
That there are five birds (not four) makes this less elegant than it would have been, but life goes on. And although you might think the Native America logos belong together, maybe we're better off categorizing them by their nature so that neither of them has to be focused on ethnic caricature.
Without further ado:
ANIMAL CONFERENCE
CATS
Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
HORSES & BEASTS
Chicago Bears
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
St. Louis Rams
BIRDS
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
AIR & SEA
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
MAN & SUPERMAN CONFERENCE
BIG BOSSES
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
WORKERS
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
PILLAGERS
Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins
OTHER
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
New England Patriots
"Will some N.F.L. team make a run at Usain Bolt as a wide receiver? "
--Freakonomics Blog
"A guy like Bolt, no matter how impressive he was on that track … you’d have to take everything down to basic fundamentals. Has he even seen a football game? Can he catch a ball standing still, never mind on the run? And of course, it’s like Mike Tyson used to say: ‘Everyone has a plan until they get hit.’ What happens when he’s trying to judge ball flight on a punt and he has guys bearing down on him? Forget about trying to catch a ball on a 7 or 9 route with a safety on him. That’s when your straight-line speed tends to go out the window unless you know what you’re doing."
--ex-scout Doug Marino, quoted by Doug Ferrar at Football Outsiders. Marino concludes:
“Honestly, I’d say that Usain Bolt’s chances of playing in the NFL would be about as good as yours or mine.”
My friend Aaron invited me to join his fantasy football league this year, drafting in 15 minutes. I had barely looked at the league until just now, where I come to find:
1. I've got the #2 pick
2. It's a Points Per Reception League
(So yeah, both of my fantasy football blog posts this month have been about the same player, assuming the #1 pick goes to LaDainian Tomlinson as it should.)
Boston Sports Media Watch tosses out names, almost at random, for who should become the Boston Herald's new Patriots' beat writer.
I voted for Mr. Couture of course.
"Many of us are stuck in abusive fantasy relationships with Brian Westbrook. That work stoppage at the one yard-line in Week 15 last year was devastatingly cruel.
If we ever meet, I'm going to demand $75 from Westbrook, plus transaction fees. And either a t-shirt or bobblehead, his choice.
Nonetheless, he's fourth in the Yahoo! experts running back ranks, [...]"
--Andy Behrens, Yahoo! Sports
Even before the game-clinching incident in question, Westbrook had been my favorite active NFL player, almost entirely for fantasy football reasons. But my esteem for him actually went way up after he found a really clever way to give up personal glory to make sure his team won (instead of possibly allowing a touchdown-onside-kick-touchdown sequence).
(Disclosure: Yes, I lost a semifinal game where his scoring a touchdown would have caused me to win; no, no money was at stake.)
If a Korean pop star is attractive enough, she doesn't necessarily need to wear pants to throw out the first pitch at a baseball game there.
Sacha Baron Cohen strikes again.
Barack Obama's acceptance speech will be the same night that college football kicks off. Brilliant scheduling by whichever Democratic party planner didn't catch that.
For the love of all that's good about the sports section (is there any?), stop wasting time and space on stories like this.
(The flip side might be that it's not his fault he answered a stupid question honestly. But some questions are so stupid that public figures leave us all a little bit worse off by bothering to give the obvious answer.)
Which William F. Buckley phrase would sound the most jarring as enunciated by Myron Cope? (Or vice versa.)
Yo, Professor: What's a five-letter word for a bust QB and even-bigger-bust baseball prospect who's in the process of failing at life?
Why I think it's...
"He was a man who demanded discipline while often exhibiting none himself."
--Tim Keown on Bobby Knight
"Not everyone can take a step back and say, 'Wow, I’m an a**hole and it is hurting my ability to get the most from my employees. I need to change.' — and then actually change, and succeed."
--Aaron Schatz on Tom Coughlin (obscenity obfuscation in original)
And the best one of all, I didn't even know existed until today (when did it air?).
5. The Dalmatian trains the Clydesdale. I make no apologies about enjoying this sap.
4. Charles Barkley wears out his welcome. A great twist on a running ad theme.
3. Giant carrier pigeons.
2. Will Farrell as an old-time basketball player pitchman
1. Underdog vs. Stewie
(I was also partial to the ad with Bill Frist and James Carville, shameless whores though they may be. Maybe this is knee-jerk brand loyalty but weren't both of those ads light years ahead of either the "Night at the Roxbury" tribute or the "let's keep hitting Justin Timberlake in the crotch"?)
The title of this post wouldn't necessarily be the most creative taunt, but it popped into my head while reading the last paragraph or two of this column.
(The "things a New York fan would say to taunt a Boston fan" convergence should be obvious enough.)
As you know, every January when each NFL team's opponent list becomes known, I try to find an easy way to devise a plausible full schedule (Weeks 1-17) for the next season, where plausibility includes which games are on national TV.
(Among other things this involves avoiding any TV-rule impossibilities or stadium impossibilities with the Giants/Jets or Raiders/49ers. Also, I say no team should play three straight road games or three straight home games, even though the NFL itself has been very lax about that of late.)
The one that I posted just over a week ago assumed that New England would win the Super Bowl. In principle the fix is easy: in Week 1 move PIT@NE from Thursday (season opener) to Sunday night, IND@CLE from Sunday night to Monday night, SEA@NYG from Monday night to Thursday. Then again maybe that creates some cascade effect of things being not quite as good as they could be.
Anyway, I'd assumed all this time that New England would need a Week 1 home game against a TV-worthy opponent. If that's not the case, then the schedule can easily be improved. (And even factor in that we already know that San Diego vs. New Orleans will be in England, whichever week it was announced to be.) New and improved weeks 1 and 2 after the jump, as worked out in my head in the car on the way to work.
(Don't expect anything further. The next steps would be some very easy Sudoku-style work, but then annoying futzing with bye weeks (since I still haven't found an elegant way to work that out), and even more annoying futzing with which of a given week's games belong on national TV.)
(CBS/Fox games in roughly descending order of what % of the U.S. see them)
Week 1 (Fox doubleheader)
NBC Thursday
Dallas at NY Giants
CBS early games
Cleveland at Buffalo
Houston at Pittsburgh
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Kansas City
Oakland at Baltimore
Miami at St. Louis
Fox early games
Detroit at Green Bay
Arizona at NY Jets
Atlanta at Minnesota
(no CBS late games because of U.S. Open tennis, as every NFL Week 1)
Fox late games
Philadelphia at Washington
Chicago at Carolina
New Orleans at Denver
NBC Sunday
New England at Indianapolis
ESPN Monday
San Diego at Tampa Bay
Seattle at San Francisco
Week 2 (CBS doubleheader)
Fox early games
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Washington at Dallas
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Minnesota at Chicago
San Francisco at Miami
CBS early games
Indianapolis at Tennessee
Baltimore at Cleveland
Denver at Atlanta
Cincinnati at Houston
Fox late games
Carolina at San Diego
St. Louis at Arizona
CBS late games
Buffalo at New England
NY Jets at Seattle
Kansas City at Oakland
NBC Sunday
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
ESPN Monday
Green Bay at New Orleans
Bud Light "ability to breathe fire" + allergic to cats: Not bad. Pretty much what Bud Light's first ad should be, but no better. B
Audi's takeoff on The Godfather: Terrible waste of money. Gratuitous screaming = turnoff. I wonder how many people won't even get the reference. F
SalesGenie: I liked it. Go animated Ramesh! B+
Pepsi Max: They had nothing better to do than dig up that song from A Night at the Roxbury? F.
Bud Light wine & cheese. Pretty clever. B+
Shoe commercial: I'm not the target audience. Nothing about it offended me, nor interested me. C.
Bridgestone: WHAT THE HELL IS UP THE SCREAMING in this year's ads??? F.
Doritos: Guitar playing woman. That was the best the user-submitters came up with? D-.
Movie trailer: It is what trailers should be. Movie loks like mindless pleasure. B-
Derek Jeter: It is what celebrity endorsements should be. B+
GoDaddy: Meh. (I didn't bother with the web version.) B
No idea what that fourth ad was. (Incomplete.)
FedEx: gigantic carrier pigeons! A
Cars.com: wtf? C-
Tide: nice premise. Does gibberish count as screaming? Wrong year for this ad I guess. B
Bud: Dalmatian trains Clydesdale. Predictable and sappy but it was what I wanted to see. A-
Movie trailer: Iron Man looks dumber than the previously trailed movie. C-
Toyota badgers: A bit too over the top. B
Leatherheads. Not bad. Funny. B+
Garmin Napoleon. Clever, but the exposition took too long. At least we're in a run of non-terrible ads. B.
Follow your heart: no thank you. C
Dancing lizards: took way too long to identify the product. C+.
Anti-drug PSA. no thank you. But not bad as anti-drug PSAs go. C+.
SUV: meh. C
Bud Light foreigners: F with a vengeance.
Prince Caspian: was what it was. B-
Planters: vomit-inducing. C-
Charles Barkley's phone company: really grew on us! A
Pepsi: now we're down to crotch shots? D-
Doritos' big mouse: not bad. B+
Nonetheless, as far as I can tell this would be a plausible 2008 schedule, barring any mistypes or overlooks.
Look at the Grid-for-TV-Games worksheet, find your favorite team, and read across. There's a legend below the grid; basically national TV games are in cells with dark background colors, thus white text. Otherwise white, light yellow, and yellow are (all times Eastern) Sunday 1 p.m., Sunday 4:05, and Sunday 4:15 respectively.
If you're too lazy even to follow the link, in my world NBC would get:
Thursday opener: Pittsburgh at New England
1. Indianapolis at Cleveland
2. NY Giants at Philadelphia
3. Tampa Bay at Dallas
4. Indianapolis at Jacksonville
5. San Diego at Pittsburgh
6. Dallas at NY Giants
7. Chicago at Green Bay
8. nothing (World Series)
9. Jacksonville at Tenessee
10. Baltimore at Cleveland Green Bay at Minnesota*
(flex scheduling begins, last seven games tentative placeholders)
11. New England at Indianapolis
12. Seattle at Tampa Bay
13. Minnesota at Tennessee
14. Dallas at Washington
15. Detroit at Green Bay
16. New England at Seattle
17. Cleveland at Pittsburgh
*- accidentally transposed the SNF and MNF color coding that week. I'd fix it on the file available on-line but life is too short
Thanksgiving = JAX@DET (CBS), PHI@DAL (Fox), CIN@CLE (NFLN).
International games = Houston vs. Jacksonville @ London (Week 6, CBS 1p.m. Eastern), Miami vs. Buffalo at Toronto (Week 13, ESPN Monday)
Suppose you owned a football team and had a coach you wanted to fire, but you also wanted to weasel out of paying him the two years remaining on his contract.
You could just fire him anyway and renege on the contract, figuring that even if he sues he'll have a hard time collection. But why make a sworn enemy for life?
Instead, making a guy choose between his contractually obligated money and his dignity is a stroke of genius. Unless he decides to hold you to the money, perhaps on the theory that he's still young and has plenty of time to get his dignity back.
The Oakland Raiders: Commitment to Excellence taunting zoo animals but failing to get out of the way.
If it weren't for a Jeff Feagles reference in this chat I would have been completely oblivious to this Fox camera gaffe (warning: search term is profane) from OVER A YEAR AGO.
(This was the one game I missed out of those four particular playoff games that weekend, as Julia's high school friends got together at a sushi restaurant for a very belated holiday gift swap.)
I wonder if that will turn out to have been Dick Stockton's last call of an NFL playoff game.
Loose ball at midfield, with two minutes left in a tie game whose winner goes to Super Bowl.
Now only partly related to fantasy football.
I learned this from Wikipedia just now; for all I know you learned it on TV today.
What did the college careers of LaDainian Tomlinson, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberger have in common?
...until they greatly improve (at least de-suck) their ads.
Incidentally, it does me no end of amusement that the line "Can I afford this?" in iPhone ads is keyed to a visual of Google's stock history.
Fantasy football final results: 2nd of 10, 3rd of 12, 5th of 10, missed the (6-team) playoffs in a 14-team league. Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and Randy Moss played well enough Week 17 denied me the cheap ESPN prize schwag.
One "Salary Cap Football" league: Did terribly.
Leading a 32-team league in college football pick 'em; will win that league unless Bowling Green beats Tulsa and LSU beats Ohio State.
Informal playoff picks (winner only - spread is irrelevant) I was the only one of our quartet to pick NYG over TB. (One went with all favorites, the other two went all home teams.) Eli is still a work in progress.
You may have already heard this (I expect someone to start complaining about it in his on-line sports column soon) but the Patriots have four West Coast road games in 2008. This is just catching up: For the pre-set part of each team's schedule (14 games out of 16), New England hadn't been given "at Oakland / at San Diego" since 2002, and hadn't gotten "at San Francisco / at Seattle" since even earlier.
(As you either already realized or didn't care about: For the pre-set games, at least whether a given game is at home or on the road, the first two and last two teams in each division (alphabetical by place name) are basically travel partners. This adds more variance than strictly necessary to road game travel length, since "at Oakland / at San Diego" is a lot further for an East Coast team to go than "at Denver / at Kansas City," which in turn is further than not having any AFC West road games at all.)
In other news, to be elaborated on either when you care or when I get around to making a clear concise explanation, an NFL schedule is sort of like a Sudoku variant (at the level of abstraction where people like Jason Z. compete) -- if, by "schedule," you're content to mean "eight pairs of slates, within which each team has a road game and a home game, that you can then arrange in the order that suits you."
A half-decent explanation of this is after the fold, including why my fairly straightforward way to get those eight-pairs-of-slates actually has 128 solutions (if you don't n-tuple count some permutations) most years, but 64 this year.
Off-the-cuff first draft of how to do something pretty neat (at least if you've read this far you'd probably think it's neat):
NOTE: Unless/until the NFL votes to extend the current system, this works only through 2009. 2010 onward all bets are off.
NOTE 2: This will be gobbledygook unless you're playing along as we go. If I were less lazy I'd attach screen shots.
1. Learn which teams have which opponents in the season you care about. Most sports outlets publish this right after Week 17 of the previous season, but you can also figure it out through a combination of this site and the final standings. Paste whatever you need to paste into a convenient reference source.
2. Make an 8-by-4 grid based on NFL divisions and previous season order of finish. Group pairs of divisions together, specifically the two divisions in the same conference whose teams all play each other. (Examples: 2008 AFC East vs. AFC West; 2007 AFC East vs. AFC North.)
Now you have a coloring puzzle: Divide each group of 8 into two groups of 4, such that each group has one team per ordinal standings rank but at most one team per travel partnership (travel partnership = e.g. "Buffalo and Miami" or "Oakland and San Diego"). There will always be at least one way to do this, sometimes two.
3. Make a 32-by-16 grid for NFL teams and schedule weeks. (Group the teams by division.) For clarity, thicken the borders so that this resembles an 8-by-8 grid of 4-by-2 grids.
4. Pick an arbitrary color (let's say blue) and an arbitrary conference (let's say AFC). Over the first four pairs of weeks, shade teams in such a way that:
A. Each team has shaded cells for two pairs of weeks (one pair among the first four, one pair among the next four)
B. In a given week, the group of eight teams with shaded cells amounts to two of the groups from step 2. (For example: {BUF, NE, CIN, PIT, JAX, TEN, KC, OAK}.) [If you already understand what we're trying to accomplish, you'll already notice that because of the 2007 NFC standings, the 2008 NFC will need a slight twist, e.g. {DAL, PHI, MIN, DET, CAR, NO, SEA, STL}. Do you see why?]
C. For a two-week period in which eight particular teams are shaded, in one of those weeks those teams will all play division games; in the other, they'll all play games they don't have in common with the rest of their division. (e.g. Pit at NE, Buf at Jax, Hou at Oak, KC at Cin)
D. In other words, the cells with this particular color take care of all the non-common games (two per team), as well as home-and-home for one division rival per team.
5. More generally, in each two-week section there will be five groups of teams (color-code them for your convenience!).
A. 8-team group, as mentioned in step 4
B. 4-team group, all in the same conference as group A, who play intra-conference games against each other. (Example: if the 8 specific teams mentioned above are already group A, then this could be {Ind @ Cle, Ten @ Bal; Bal @ Ind, Cle @ Ten}. Or it could be {Den @ NYJ, SD @ Mia; Mia @ Den, NYJ @ SD}.)
C. 4-team group, some entire division whose non-conference opponents are all in the same division as two of the teams from group B. These teams will all have division opponents two straight weeks, specifically the teams they DON'T face when they're part of "Group A" themselves. Note: You can't actually fill in who plays whom yet. That is, you can't immediately decide that this is "Dal @ Was; NYG @ Dal" rather than "Dal @ NYG; Was @ Dal."
D. 6-team group: two leftover teams (same division) from the same conference as Group A, plus the entire division that faces those two teams in non-conference games. (Example: {Denver, San Diego, AFC South}.) The former two teams will have non-conference games each week, one against the "first half" of the other division (alpha by place name) and one against the "second half." That will leave gaps filled by division games so that all six teams have a home game and a road game. (Example: {Den @ Car, Atl @ SD, TB @ NO; NO @ Den, SD @ TB, Car @ Atl) Note: Same caveat as for part C.
E. 10-team group: Sort of like Group D, except that in the division where half the alphabet has non-conference games, the other half will have conference [non-division] games instead of just facing each other.
6. You'll want to color-code this so that each team is either on the little end of "Group D" exactly once, or on the little end of "Group E" exactly once. To accomplish this, despite everything explained in step 5, you probably just want to look at whichever conference doesn't have "Group A" teams for a given two-week slate, and think of what the different divisions are doing.
(One division is all in-house; one has non-conference games + division games; one has non-conference games + non-division games; one has non-division games + division games.)
At first it would be tempting to claim that there are 24 ways (4!) to arrange the color-coding for those divisions in those weeks, but then you should immediately notice why it's really just 8.
7. As you might notice, opponent assignment and home-road considerations for Group A and Group B are independent of any other group. But opponent assignment and home-road for Groups C-E all depend on each other. In fact as it turns out, once you have the color coding set, you're down to two flavors. You can completely solve for either of those flavors by starting with a "Group C" color (entire division with two weeks in a row in-house) and making a binary choice. (e.g. the aforementioned "Dal @ Was; NYG @ Dal" versus "Dal @ NYG; Was @ Dal.")
Getting from these 8 pairs of slates to a 17-week actual schedule is an exercise for the reader, mainly because there's no elegant way to space things out for byes. (I'd turn one slate in to Weeks 1-2; then 3-4, 5+7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-17. Then group a few games each from weeks 3-5, 7-10 to fabricate Week 6. But there's no elegant algorithm for this.)
The team that has led the NFL in passing yards has never won the Super Bowl.
Well golly gee, I wonder why. (Hint: It has nothing to do with the effect of high passing yardage, but rather the main cause.)
(More information about the revolutionary "Kneel to Win!" theory. Anyone interested in correct use of sports statistics should take the lessons of this article to heart.)
Week 17 fantasy football is so degenerate, but ESPN does what it does. With some sort of cheap ESPN swag** at stake (trophy? T-shirt? I still haven't bothered to look up exactly what), would you start Plaxico Burress (risking his leg and the coach's decision to save him for the playoffs) or hit the waiver wire*?
[*- There's no middle ground because of the L. Coles injury and my certainty that neither J. Galloway nor D. Branch will actually play much if at all. And having already picked up I. Bruce, that sentence should end "hit the waiver wire further."]
**- It says here To be eligible for League Winner prizes teams must be in a Prize-eligible league. The top overall team ranked the highest in its fantasy football league at the end of the season will have the choice of a Fantasy Football 2007 League Champion T-Shirt, a Fantasy Football 2007 League Champion Mini Banner or an NFL Bobblehead. Approximate Retail Value ("ARV"): $15 per League Winner (including shipping).
I guess I'd take the bobblehead. Blah.
ESPN's Featured Comment of the Day is so frequently stupid, inane, or both, that Deadspin rightly set up a recurring feature to highlight some of those comments. That said:
"I think the Pats still only have a 50 percent chance of winning it all."
You may think that's a little low (I'd put them at 65%, as in a 90% chance of winning any given game from here on out -- your mileage may vary) but my goodness, the misplaced vitriol among Deadspin commenters made me think I'd stumbled onto AOL, or Foxsports.com, or even ESPN itself.
Nice work guys. Good luck ever being taken seriously by people who didn't already.
According to TV.yahoo.com local listings for Alameda, CA, our local stations get:
NBC = News from 5 to 6:30, Tech Now! at 6:30, Access Hollywood at 7, two hours of Dateline NBC at 8
CBS = This Old House at 5, news until 7, Without A Trace at 7, then the movie Good Night and Good Luck
FOX = Half-hour shows promoting the Raiders and 49ers from 5 to 6, news at 6, two syndicated Friends, a 7:30 Seinfeld, then back-to-back Cops at 8
ABC = News until 6:30, At the Movies, Jeopardy!, Wheel, then four consecutive reruns of Samantha Who?
Two of those four are out of date.
I presume they have until tomorrow to announce it, but you'd think the final Sunday night game of the regular season would have to be Tennessee at Indianapolis, since that game singlehandedly decides the final AFC playoff spot (and on the other side of the ball features the best team available to NBC).
Teams' own markets aside, I presume Fox gives us Dallas at Washington followed by Minnesota at Denver (both games for the final NFC playoff spot), while CBS gives us the jousting for #3 seed (Pittsburgh at Baltimore, then San Diego at Oakland).
I don't mean to speak ill of the dead, but "the prototype free safety for the new millennium?
I think it's safe to say the Redskins hold on. Your mileage may vary.
Without consulting any media sources, here's what I think are the relevant tiebreaks, according to these instructions and these standings:
AFC
Patriots and Colts clinched the #1 and #2 (respectively). For the #3 and #4, Chargers advantage over Steelers by conference record. (PIT clinches the division over CLE on head-to-head.) Jaguars clinched the #5. If both teams won, Titans over Browns for the #6 based on common opponents (the difference-maker is the Raiders). [But if both teams lost Week 17, Cleveland would have a better conference record.]
NFC
Cowboys and Packers clinched the #1 and #2 (respectively). Seahawks and Buccaneers clinched the #3 and #4 (respectively). [Ties on either tier would be broken by head-to-head.] Giants clinch the #5 should the Vikings' loss hold up.
Redskins would get the #6 with a 9-7 record; Vikings would get it if they win Week 17 and Washington loses.
If PHI and WAS were both 8-8, Redskins would win the tiebreak (eliminating Philly): head-to-head split, both 2-4 in conference and 7-7 vs. common opponents, but Washington would be 6-6 in conference.
If DET and MIN were both 8-8, Lions would win the tiebreak (eliminating Minnesota), because of a better conference record.
If there were a big dogpile at 8-8: Redskins would have head-to-head sweep over [Lions or Vikings] and Cardinals; however, Saints would win a multi-team tiebreak because of conference record.
32. Atlanta (3-12) (Last week: 32) Faint signs of life. (Remaining game: vs. Seattle)
31. Miami (1-14) (Last week: 31) I'd still take the Dolphins over the Falcons at a neutral site. (We didn't have access to the New England game: Did the Patriots just let up or did Miami hold down the score?) (Remaining game: vs. Cincinnati)
30. St. Louis (3-12) (Last week: 30) Just bad (1 of 5). (Remaining game: at Arizona)
29. NY Jets (3-12) (Last week: 29) Just bad (2 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. Kansas City)
28. Baltimore (4-11) (Last week: 27) Just bad (3 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. Pittsburgh)
27. Kansas City (4-11) (Last week: 26) Just bad (4 of 5). (Remaining game: at NY Jets)
26. Oakland (4-11) (Last week: 24) Just bad (5 of 5). (Remaining game: vs. San Diego)
25. San Francisco (5-10) (Last week: 28) Two in a row. Just like when they started the year 2-0! (Remaining game: at Cleveland)
24. Carolina (6-9) (Last week: 23) Steve Smith sighting! (Remaining game: at Tampa Bay)
23. Cincinnati (6-9) (Last week: 25) Spoilers: That's how you do it. (Remaining game: at Miami)
22. Denver (6-8) (Last week: 21) TBA (Remaining game: vs. Minnesota)
21. Arizona (7-8) (Last week: 20) Eked out a home win against a terrible opponent (1 of 2) (Remaining game: vs. St. Louis)
20. Detroit (7-8) (Last week: 19) Eked out a home win against a terrible opponent (2 of 2) (Remaining game: at Green Bay)
19. Chicago (6-9) (Last week: 22) Responsible for 2/3 of the Packers' losses this year. (Remaining game: vs. New Orleans)
18. Minnesota (8-6) (Last week: 15) Rotten egg alert. (Remaining game: at Denver)
17. New Orleans (7-8) (Last week: 18) What a squandered opportunity! Despite the loss, I'd take them over any of the teams below them. (Remaining game: at Chicago)
16. Houston (7-8) (Last week: 17) Winless in their division but 7-3 outside the AFC South. (The division itself is a combined 30-10 against other divisions.) (Remaining game: vs. Jacksonville)
15. Buffalo (7-8) (Last week: 13) Spoilers: You're doing it wrong. (Remaining game: at Philadelphia)
14. Philadelphia (7-8) (Last week: 14) What might have been. (Remaining game: vs. Buffalo)
13. Washington (7-7) (Last week: 16) Oh hi! Somebody really wanted that playoff spot. In with a win (vs. Dallas). (Remaining game: vs. Dallas)
12. Tennessee (9-6) (Last week: 11) This is the time of year for http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures . Tennessee and Cleveland did not face each other. Both would be 7-5 in conference if they win next week. (If both lose, the Browns get the playoff spot.) As for common opponents, Cincinnati beat TEN and CLE at home (but lost to CLE on the road). TEN swept Houston; CLE beat Houston at home. Oakland won vs. CLE but lost at TEN. Both teams beat the Jets. I think that means Tennessee is in with a win (at IND). (Remaining game: at Indianapolis)
11. Cleveland (9-6) (Last week: 8) As The Onion reminded us (http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/browns_reject_concept_of), everything is chaos. (Remaining game: vs. San Francisco)
10. Tampa Bay (9-6) (Last week: 9) For what it's worth: 6-1 at home (Jacksonville); 3-5 on the road (Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans) (Remaining game: vs. Carolina)
9. Seattle (10-5) (Last week: 12) For what it's worth: 7-1 at home (New Orleans), 3-4 on the road (San Francisco, St. Louis, Philadelphia) (Remaining game: at Atlanta)
8. NY Giants (10-5) (Last week: 10) Big road comeback in lousy weather? It has to be Eli Manning. (Remaining game: vs. New England)
7. Pittsburgh (10-5) (Last week: 7) Should be downgraded a bit for losing Willie Parker, but that just means a vast gulf between seventh and eighth is instead close. (Remaining game: at Baltimore)
6. San Diego (9-5) (Last week: 6) Chad point out that the "special Christmas Eve time" for Monday's game was only a half hour removed from normal. (Remaining game: at Oakland)
5. Jacksonville (11-4) (Last week: 5) Didn't bother to watch. Did almost start both Fred Taylor and MJD in the same fantasy consolation (3rd place) game. (Remaining game: at Houston)
4. Green Bay (12-3) (Last week: 3) Rumor has it Favre is mortal. The conventional wisdom about him shows a freakish amount of variance. (Remaining game: vs. Detroit)
3. Dallas (13-2) (Last week: 4) I would root for New England in a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl. Just saying. (Remaining game: at Washington)
2. Indianapolis (13-2) (Last week: 2) They sometimes toy with weaker opponents. (Remaining game: vs. Tennessee)
1. New England (15-0) (Last week: 1) What are the odds they do it? Maybe less than you think. They have to win their next four, and for example .95 to the 4th is about .81. (Remaining game: at NY Giants)
So I had a long fantasy football related post that I ditched because it bored even me. But then I found this site through an ESPN.com banner ad.
I'm intrigued that Major League Baseball isn't part of this. I'm agape at the Virginia Tech color scheme (as seen on the slide show when I first clicked the link).
Anyway, this is good time-wasting fun. I've decorated several bathrooms in Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars glory.
(More formally, the 60 point Impact font, white text with borders effect.)
I've started to notice that when it comes to NFL uniforms, I like color jerseys with white numbers a lot more than white jerseys with color numbers.
If you go to ESPN.com right now (as I post this) and click on "NFL" or "NFL2 II" in the scrolling headline widget, you'll see good examples (of what I do like) from both the Steelers and Jaguars.
"While NFL fans eagerly await today's Pro Bowl release [...]"
--front page of ESPN.com
Now, I'm not a real football fan, but do even the die-hards actually care about this? I can't imagine a major-sport sporting event that matters less to fans of that sport. Even preseason games get more attention because at least they affect (and reflect on) the future of a given fan's favorite team.
The key point here is that last word: I think football fans are more team-focused (rather than player-focused) than basketball, baseball, or even hockey fans. The only ones who are player-focused are fantasy football geeks, and none of them (us) will care about the Pro Bowl for blindingly obvious reasons.
(Four teams: One didn't make the six-team playoffs in a 14-team league; one lost the quarterfinal; one lost the semifinal; one is alive and well. The team still alive is my ESPN public "plus league" freebie: The final is spread out over Weeks 16-17. The winner gets a plastic trophy, or T-shirt, or some such tchotchke.)
Sit Ubu Sit, Good Dog (hey, I just learned why someone in the draft chat thought this was a Spin City reference: wow that makes me feel old) vs. kalamazoo thunder iv:
QUARTERBACKS: I think I'll keep a tandem going with Roethlisberger (at St. Louis) Week 16 but Favre (vs. Detroit) Week 17. He'll probably start Carson Palmer twice (vs. Cleveland, at Miami) and leave Jay Cutler on the bench. Advantage: me (unless both of my QBs get rested Week 17).
KICKER: Unless one of us grabs a free agent it's Kris Brown vs. Nick Folk. Advantage: him.
DEFENSE: For me, Buccaneers at San Francisco and vs. Carolina. For him, Ravens or Colts (between the Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, and Titans, he's not getting any great match-up) or a free agent pickup. Advantage: me.
TIGHT END: Antonio Gates vs. Tony Gonzalez. (He could start Dallas Clark, but that doesn't change his expected value much.) Advantage: me.
RB1: Brian Westbrook vs. LaDainian Tomlinson. Advantage: him (unless Tomlinson gets a lot of Week 17 rest).
RB2: Clinton Portis vs. Earnest Graham. Advantage: him (given who Washington and Tampa Bay face)
WR1: Plaxico vs. Randy Moss. He made a great trade to pick up Moss at the last minute, for Kenny Watson and Fred Taylor and some second-tier WR. Advantage: him
WR2: Joey Galloway vs. Chad Johnson. Advantage: him.
Flex: Jamal Lewis vs. Kolby Smith. (He started Bobby Engram over Smith in Week 15; not what I would have done.) Advantage: me
RB/WR bench options: In descending order of expected utility I have Aaron Stecker, Warrick Dunn, Jesse Chatman, Correll Buckhalter, Deion Branch, and L. Coles (unless that training table accident ended his season). He has no other RB but his bench WR include Engram, Derrick Mason, Donte' Stallworth, and some guy who used to be Marvin Harrison. Advantage: me for RB, him for WR
Overall I think his team is better (especially after the Moss trade) but mine is more reliable.
Lost a fantasy football semifinal by six points this weekend.
The best player on the team decided (in real life of course) to go down at the one yard line and guarantee that his team would win, rather than padding his personal stats. He made exactly the right decision.
I spent two minutes trying to find a page that would explain how Yahoo! breaks fantasy football playoff ties. The only thing I came across was a message board(!) with the dubious claim that the first tiebreak was touchdowns. (We had five touchdowns apiece.)
Who in their right mind decided that a team should play on Thursday but then not again until Monday?
32. Atlanta (3-11) (Last week: 31) Thanks to Lawyer Milloy and Deadspin, every time I think of the Mitchell Report I'll think of "COWARD!" in red pen. (Remaining games: at Arizona, vs. Seattle)
31. Miami (1-13) (Last week: 32) Not only is the albatross dead, but I'm more than 70% sure the Dolphins would beat the Falcons at a neutral site in Week 16. (Remaining games: at New England, vs. Cincinnati)
30. St. Louis (3-11) (Last week: 29) In fantasy (all that matters in St. Louis anymore), I would have expected more from Favre and less from S. Jackson. (Remaining games: vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)
29. NY Jets (3-11) (Last week: 28) They didn't embarrass themselves. But the weather had a lot to do with that. (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)
28. San Francisco (4-10) (Last week: 30) Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill. Don't confuse him with Canada's own Shawn Hill (RHP-WAS). (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)
27. Baltimore (4-10) (Last week: 24) That 18-yard field goal attempt (1st and goal from the 1, down 3, 12 seconds left) was beyond cowardly. But hey, remember when they almost beat New England? (Remaining games: at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)
26. Kansas City (4-10) (Last week: 26) It's not even that they lost a blah game at home, but that this particular blah loss wasn't at all surprising. (Remaining games: at Detroit, at NY Jets)
25. Cincinnati (5-9) (Last week: 23) This clinches the Bengals' first losing season under Marvin Lewis. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at Miami)
24. Oakland (4-10) (Last week: 25) Your 2007 Raiders: road blowouts and home losses by a touchdown. (Remaining games: at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)
23. Carolina (6-8) (Last week: 27) Ladies and gentlemen, Matt Moore. (Remaining games: vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)
22. Chicago (5-8) (Last week: 22) TBA. Don't expect much. (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)
21. Denver (6-8) (Last week: 20) If the two late 1990s Super Bowls earned them a ten-year honeymoon then 2008 would mark Year 10. (Remaining games: at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)
20. Arizona (6-8) (Last week: 21) I learned two things from the NFL.com video highlights: Kurt Warner and a coach shouted at each other, and the Cardinals have UGLY road uniforms. (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)
19. Detroit (6-8) (Last week: 15) The first 59 minutes, 30 seconds of their 2007 highlight video will get them through Week 9. (Remaining games: vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)
18. New Orleans (7-7) (Last week: 19) Of the 20 teams who would NOT make the playoffs if the season ended after Sunday's games, this is the team most likely to sneak in. (Remaining games: vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)
17. Houston (7-7) (Last week: 16) Probably their last win this year, but 7-9 is a big step up for this franchise. (Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)
16. Washington (7-7) (Last week: 18) Guess NBC knew what they were doing when they scheduled the Redskins for two straight late-season Sunday night games. (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)
15. Minnesota (7-6) (Last week: 14) TBA. Ranked below the Eagles for now but remember they lost to Philly at home in Week 8. (Remaining games: vs. Washington, at Denver)
14. Philadelphia (6-8) (Last week: 17) See, this what they've been capable of all along. (Not to get all dogmatic about it.) (Remaining games: at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)
13. Buffalo (7-7) (Last week: 13) You know it's a blizzard when a team with a decent offense can't score against Cleveland. (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)
12. Seattle (9-5) (Last week: 8) That doesn't inspire confidence that this team is capable of winning a playoff road game. (Remaining games: vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)
11. Tennessee (8-6) (Last week: 12) Likely to be football's best non-playoff team. Incidentally, the Week 17 at Colts is a very good NBC flex game candidate. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)
10. NY Giants (9-5) (Last week: 9) Swirling winds 1, passing game 0. Not the best way to inspire home crowd confidence in Eli? (Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs. New England)
9. Tampa Bay (9-5) (Last week: 11) Don't read too much into the blowout, considering the opponent. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)
8. Cleveland (9-5) (Last week: 10) They're 9-3 in games not against the Steelers. And thanks to their conference record (and Tennessee's), if I'm not mistaken they're one victory away from clinching the last AFC playoff spot. (Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)
7. Pittsburgh (9-5) (Last week: 6) Panic is premature but that's two straight losses. (And they're only 7-5 when not playing Cleveland.) (Remaining games: at St. Louis, at Baltimore)
6. San Diego (9-5) (Last week: 7) Peaking at the right time. (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Oakland)
5. Jacksonville (10-4) (Last week: 5) There could easily be a rematch in three weeks. (Hmm: Compare a playoff road game at Pittsburgh to one at San Diego: Did the Jaguars really come out ahead here?) (Remaining games: vs. Oakland, at Houston)
4. Dallas (12-2) (Last week: 3) King Kaufman called this: "Cowboys cruising, Eagles done, and whoops! Random stumble for the Cowboys. Nothing to worry about." (Remaining games: at Carolina, at Washington)
3. Green Bay (12-2) (Last week: 4) Since they're on the wrong side of head-to-head, think how different this season would be if the Packers-Cowboys game didn't happen to be scheduled in Dallas. (Remaining games: at Chicago, vs. Detroit)
2. Indianapolis (12-2) (Last week: 2) King Kaufman correctly pointed out that the Colts often seem to toy with weak opponents. (Remaining games: vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)
1. New England (14-0) (Last week: 1) I'm not sure which meme annoyed me more: The hubris that a blowout was inevitable, or the stigma that this might not be a good cold weather team. Neither is true. (Remaining games: vs. Miami, at NY Giants)
Are bettors actually picking the Patriots (and giving that many points) this weekend?
I have no desire whatsoever to be involved in sports wagering, but those of yhou who know me personally, if anyone is really interested in taking the Patriots (and giving me 24.5 points) on an informal proposition, e-mail me.
I think it's safe to say Indianapolis will win tonight.
32. Miami (0-13) (Last week: 32) The close games have given way to blowouts. (Remaining games: vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)
31. San Francisco (3-10) (Last week: 30) Relapsed into a team incapable of winning. (Remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)
30. Atlanta (3-9) (Last week: 31) TBA (Remaining games: at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)
29. St. Louis (3-10) (Last week: 29) Back to reality (1 of 4). (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)
28. NY Jets (3-10) (Last week: 28) Back to reality (2 of 4). (Remaining games: at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)
27. Carolina (5-8) (Last week: 27) Back to reality (3 of 4). (Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)
26. Kansas City (4-9) (Last week: 25) That's six straight losses since the bye. (Remaining games: vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)
25. Oakland (4-9) (Last week: 24) So predictable. The Bay Area these days make the Sunday afternoon NFL unwatchable. (Remaining games: vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)
24. Baltimore (4-9) (Last week: 21) Back to reality (4 of 4). (Remaining games: at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)
23. Cincinnati (5-8) (Last week: 26) I actually buy the Bill Simmons devil's advocate argument about the Bengals' unlucky schedule timing. 8-8 is quite plausible. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)
22. Chicago (5-8) (Last week: 19) Not the best defense of a conference championship. (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)
21. Arizona (6-7) (Last week: 17) Fun with ITSET ("If The Season Ended Today"): The Cardinals fell out of the #6 seed not at the moment they lost at Seattle, nor at the moment Minnesota won, but rather the moment Detroit lost to Dallas. (Lions had a Division tiebreak over Vikings but MIN had the Conference tiebreak on ARI; meanwhile, ARI over DET head-to-head.) (Remaining games: at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)
20. New Orleans (5-7) (Last week: 20) TBA (Remaining games: vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)
19. Denver (6-7) (Last week: 22) If you started Selvin Young in a fantasy league today, you're psychic (or in dire roster straits). (Remaining games: at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)
18. Washington (6-7) (Last week: 16) Look at those remaining opponents: This is where Easterbrook writes "6-10" in his playbook. (Remaining games: at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)
17. Philadelphia (5-8) (Last week: 15) Goalpost says "No." (Remaining games: at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)
16. Houston (6-7) (Last week: 23) Sage Rosenfels will do his best to prove me wrong. Between the Texas and Vikings, I wonder which team will have the most variance in this series of polls (you'll notice other teams don't move around much). (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)
15. Detroit (6-7) (Last week: 18) Nice ground game! This would have been a godsend to break the skid but it was not to be. (Remaining games: at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)
14. Minnesota (7-6) (Last week: 14) Undefeated since I dismissed them as a terrible team. But don't believe anyone who has them in the top 10, especially if they overreacted to a win against a terrible opponent. (Remaining games: vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)
13. Buffalo (7-6) (Last week: 13) Perfect timing for this match-up: if the Bills won at Cleveland then they'd have the tiebreak for the sixth seed. If. (Hard schedule even after that.) (Remaining games: at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)
12. Tennessee (7-6) (Last week: 12) Moving them down would be tempting, unless you treat overtime as effectively a tie, or recognize that destroying cupcakes (as the Bills and Vikings did) isn't all that impressive. (Remaining games: at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)
11. Tampa Bay (8-5) (Last week: 9) Good news: ridiculously easy last three games. Bad news (for seeding): Seattle also has an easy end schedule. (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)
10. Cleveland (8-5) (Last week: 11) Didn't panic. (Or did have good fortune for follow-up opponent, the Jets' upset of Pittsburgh notwithstanding.) (Remaining games: vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)
9. NY Giants (9-4) (Last week: 8) Welcome back, Plaxico. (As for the rest, don't confuse the ability to induce opposing missed field goals with a skill. To be sure, that looked like a very long attempt.) (Remaining games: vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)
8. Seattle (9-4) (Last week: 10) Matt Hasselbeck awaits a triumphant(?) playoff return to Lambeau Field. (Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)
7. San Diego (8-5) (Last week: 7) Fifty minutes of stink-bomb, then a defining comeback. (Remaining games: vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)
6. Pittsburgh (9-4) (Last week: 5) If I coached a team on which some scrub guaranteed a victory, that scrub would be cut immediately. Maybe that's just me. (Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)
5. Jacksonville (9-4) (Last week: 6) For playoff seeding purposes it's irrelevant whether the Jaguars have a better team than the Steelers, though it'll be fun to settle on the Week 15 field. (Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)
4. Green Bay (11-2) (Last week: 4) You know they host the Colts in 2008, right? Can you feel the quarterback overpraise already? (Remaining games: at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)
3. Dallas (12-1) (Last week: 2) Good gut-check. (Remaining games: vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)
2. Indianapolis (11-2) (Last week: 3) Had a bit less trouble with the Ravens than New England did. (Remaining games: at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)
1. New England (13-0) (Last week: 1) They're fine. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)
Brian Westbrook is listed as questionable (again). Again I'll wait and see, and he'll end up playing and having a big game.
More important to the post title, Duce Staley officially retired as an Eagle, several years after he was last relevant (Steelers, splitting time with Jerome Bettis, pre-Willie Parker days).
Should the NFL adopt the college overtime system?
(Warning: Very not-safe-for-work mental image before he reaches that point.)
An otherwise lackluster Rams-Bengals match-up (maybe compelling for particular fantasy football people) gets the annual Pat Summerall sighting. Pat even gets Brian Baldinger (Dick Stockton's usual 2007 partner) so that there's no true 7th-string Fox booth team.
Meanwhile at 49ers Park, Matt Vasgersian yet again. Julia if you see this, we get two Sunday afternoon games this weekend, both involving the local teams, and I couldn't care less about either of them.
(Unless you have Raider or 49er rooting interest, I think your options are to be productive on Sunday, or go to a sports bar that carries that Steelers-Patriots game. There's really no middle ground.)
Incidentally the funniest thing about this map (if the color scheme is consistent with previous maps) is that the New York TV market + the state of Ohio (minus Cincinnati) exceeds the population of several Plains and Mountain states combined.
Oh, speaking of local interest, a post a couple weeks ago about NBC's games contained a very silly misapprehension that resulted from forgetting an important bit of NFL history. I realized the mistake when I thought of this weekend's game as "Colts at Baltimore."
Three teams out of four made the playoffs. One of them has the #1 seed, another gets a first-round bye.
Sit Ubu Sit, Good Dog: 9-4, best of 10 teams in an ESPN public "plus" league. (It's unclear how much the "plus" part outweighs the public part, especially since I (and at least two other owners in that league) got the team as a free apology for ESPN's fantasy baseball screw-up.) As is standard for public ESPN leagues, top four teams reach the playoffs and each match is actually the sum of two weeks of action (semis Weeks 14-15, Weeks 16-17).
Core players: Roethlisberger, Westbrook, Portis, Jamal Lewis, Plaxico, Galloway, A. Gates
Big lineup decisions: Favre instead of Roethlisberger? L. Coles instead of whoever?
Whom to root against: Matt Hasselbeck, Gore, Edge. Larry Fitzgerald if healthy.
Alaska Ulu: 8-5, #2 seed in a 12-team league of erstwhile baseball statisticians (despite ending the regular season on a three-game skid). The week off gives one particular player more time to heal.
Core players: Bulger(!), Westbrook, Jones-Drew, M. Lynch(?), B. Edwards, Plaxico
Big lineup decisions: Garrard (off the free agent wire!) over Bulger? Fred Taylor over Jones-Drew? Both Jaguar backs if Lynch never comes back? Wouldn't a Jacksonville backfield trifecta be a hoot?
Whom to root against: TBA
^@^ ^@^: 6-6-1, #4 seed in a 10-team Coen et al league
Core players: TBA, W. Parker, S. Jackson, S. Smith, H. Ward, K. Curtis
Big lineup decisions: OK, Donovan or Kurt Warner? Finally pull the plug on Steve Smith (understudy would be Dwayne Bowe or Roddy White)?
Whom to root against: Peyton Manning, the good Adrian Peterson, and Terrell Owens. That's the nucleus of a team that started out 1-7(!) (and has since won five in a row).
They've branched out to football: Count me firmly in the "like" category, especially the conceit of Manning brothers as Flanders brothers.
I will readily admit that bowls are logistically easier than a true championship. But none of the first few paragraphs of this piece explain why college football couldn't adopt something similar to college basketball. (His whole point about bowl locations being known years in advance is bogus because teams won't know which bowl they go to until early December. Seriously, are there people who make a specific bowl their tourist destination without even knowing who'll play there? Aside from a specific year's BCS championship game I just don't see it. And at that, there's no reason a playoff system is incompatible with "Championship Game: Pasadena, January 3.")
BONUS Easterbrook fallacy: "Ravens cornerback Samari Rolle said after the game that head linesman Phil McKinnely repeatedly called him "boy" in the game's closing minutes, a racial insult when spoken by a white person to an African-American."
Gregg, does this man look white to you?
I had simply been e-mailing this, but the more I think about it the more annoyed I am that someone so wrong could be so smug about being wrong. (The context is Aaron Schatz's observation that Nobody knows what the rules are, and they seem to be applied willy-nilly.)
I don't even know where to begin.
"Here’s a thought: before complaining again, spend a season officiating any relatively fast moving sport."
Or, for that matter, trying to hit a 90 MPH fastball or trying to stop a blitzing Ray Lewis.
"Fans who cannot seem to comprehend the difference between a rule (don't go more than 55 MPH) and a standard (don’t drive recklessly). Life and sports are both chock o' block full of standards, so just get over it. What is 'Holding'? What is 'Pass Interference'? They’re standards. Get over it."
Remind me: How frequently does a cop needs to distinguish reckless driving from non-reckless? Compared to that, how many times a game must a ref distinguish pass interference from a legal play?
...so help me I'm glad New England won tonight.
The 1972 Dolphins alone may be enough for me to hope the Patriots do finish undefeated.
Let's see whether the Excel cut-and-paste thing still works. For what it's worth I put the Colts back ahead of Green Bay among the teams most likely to lose conference championship games.
There are also some interesting down-ballot comparisons, both what I punted and what I sorted out (or tried to).
After Monday night's game, Patriots will still be #1 no matter what. Ravens could plausibly move up if the game goes down to the wire. Oh my.
32. Miami (0-12) (Last week: 32) Best chance to win. Didn't even come close. (Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)
31. Atlanta (3-9) (Last week: 31) Chris Redman was born in Louisville and played at Louisville. Apparently the 2002 Ravens used him six games. (Remaining games: vs. New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)
30. San Francisco (3-9) (Last week: 30) About to play three straight home games. Oh, joy. (Remaining games: vs. Minnesota, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)
29. St. Louis (3-9) (Last week: 29) Made it look easy (but against Atlanta it was). (Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)
28. NY Jets (3-9) (Last week: 28) I still don't understand how that became a 40-13 game. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)
27. Carolina (5-7) (Last week: 27) That's one way to end a home losing streak. (Remaining games: at Jacksonville, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)
26. Cincinnati (4-8) (Last week: 24) Weren't going to win (1 of 2) (Remaining games: vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)
25. Kansas City (4-8) (Last week: 22) Weren't going to win (2 of 2) (Remaining games: at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)
24. Oakland (4-8) (Last week: 26) Hey, two straight wins against bitter conference rivals. (Remaining games: at Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)
23. Houston (5-7) (Last week: 16) Sage Rosenfels won't guide you to a playoff berth. (To be fair, he wasn't that bad when they previously lost Schaub.) (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)
22. Denver (5-7) (Last week: 17) Just lost to the Raiders. Shanahan might be a bit angry about that. (Remaining games: vs. Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)
21. Baltimore (4-8) (Last week: 25) So close. (Remaining games: vs. Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)
20. New Orleans (5-7) (Last week: 19) Hangover season but still a bit better than their record. Had a great chance today, but somehow lose games like that? (1 of 2) (Remaining games: at Atlanta, vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)
19. Chicago (5-7) (Last week: 20) Hangover season but still a bit better than their record. Had a great chance today, but somehow lose games like that? (2 of 2) (Remaining games: at Washington, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)
17. Arizona (6-6) (Last week: 23) What is it about the desert that terrible 49er teams win there, no sweat, but good teams don't? (Remaining games: at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)
18. Detroit (6-6) (Last week: 13) I keep mentioning this, but if you told a Lions fan in August that they'd go 7-9, wouldn't that be cause for celebration? (To be sure, they're not there yet.) (Remaining games: vs. Dallas, at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)
16. Washington (5-7) (Last week: 15) RIP. Move on as best you can. (Remaining games: vs. Chicago, at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)
15. Philadelphia (5-7) (Last week: 12) Second straight game that good-for-nothing backup quarterback choked away with a late INT. Why, the fans out to be outraged. (Wait, what?) (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)
14. Minnesota (6-6) (Last week: 21) In a way, that game was a baton passing. (Remaining games: at San Francisco, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)
13. Buffalo (6-6) (Last week: 18) For the first time since Week 1 they faced a team that was neither excellent nor terrible. It happened to be a team distracted by death, in a road game where the storybook ending was for that team to win (and that opponent led a fugly game, 9-2 at the half). But guys named Trent Edwards and Fred Jackson pulled it out. Incidentally, I could not disagree more with Bill Simmons: Playing New England, then at Jacksonville, both without your star halfback, is not "free fall." (Remaining games: vs. Miami, at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)
12. Tennessee (7-5) (Last week: 14) Welcome back Albert (or "Alfred," as a ludicrous SportsTicker wire report inaccurately named you) (Remaining games: vs. San Diego, at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)
11. Cleveland (7-5) (Last week: 9) Not an irresistable force after all, but (if I'm not mistaken) still an If The Season Ended Today playoff team (5-4 conference record versus Tennessee's 4-4). (Remaining games: at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)
10. Seattle (8-4) (Last week: 11) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (1 of 3) (Remaining games: vs. Arizona, at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)
9. Tampa Bay (8-4) (Last week: 8) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (2 of 3) (Remaining games: at Houston, vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)
8. NY Giants (8-4) (Last week: 10) Playoff caliber (but not championship caliber) NFC team that just pulled out a fluky road win against a middling team with interesting flaws. (3 of 3) (Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)
7. San Diego (7-5) (Last week: 7) This whole time they'd had (and will have) a ranking that makes it look like they should have one more win than they do. It almost reminds me of an odd-team-out powermatching anomaly. (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)
6. Jacksonville (8-4) (Last week: 6) Losing by three points on the road to a fantastic team is at least a moral tie. (Remaining games: vs. Carolina, at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)
5. Pittsburgh (9-3) (Last week: 5) Everything squared away with the field now? (Remaining games: at New England, vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)
4. Green Bay (10-2) (Last week: 3) Losing Favre wasn't the end of the world but there's a big difference between Favre at his best and not. Also, on Yahoo! the right abbreviation is GNB: Anything else takes you to a team with nothing but byes, whose next game is at 7 p.m. December 31, 1969. (Remaining games: vs. Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)
3. Indianapolis (10-2) (Last week: 4) They're gonna be okay. Only losses this year were a blown lead to the Patriot juggernaut and that weird game at San Diego. (Remaining games: at Baltimore, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)
2. Dallas (11-1) (Last week: 2) That turned out a lot closer that I thought it would as of the 27-10 second quarter margin. (Remaining games: at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)
1. New England (12-0) (Last week: 1) Clearly #1 even if they lose Monday. Like the 49ers, inexplicably about to play three straight home games. (Remaining games: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)
Hey, remember back in August when the Wolverines lost to Appalachian State and there was much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth about how their season was "already over," how after just one game there was no chance Michigan would win a national championship?
Think what would have happened if they'd run the table after Appalachian State -- or even after Oregon.
As the Buffalo Bills got ready to run their first play midway through the first quarter, the man who replaced Taylor in the starting lineup, Reed Doughty, stood near coaches on the sideline with his arms crossed. After watching while Bills running back Fred Jackson gained 22 yards, [...]
To: Marc Bulger
Cc: Matt Schaub
Really? Both of you? Is this your way of telling me I should have traded Marshawn Lynch for Derek Anderson instead of laughing at what seemed like a ridiculous sell-high offer?
This has been in my head forever now. Obviously 29 isn't nearly as cool as 32 but right now New England, Miami, and Dallas (having lost only to New England) can't be part of any closed loop.
None Not all of what you see after the jump has been confirmed, but a simple closed loop will exist as soon as either San Francisco or Carolina wins their game (against each other) this weekend already exists.
UPDATE: Fixed.
1. Carolina beat Atlanta week 3
2. Atlanta beat San Francisco earlier this month
3. San Francisco beate Arizona on Warner's overtime end zone fumble.
4. Arizona beat St. Louis during the Rams' long winless start
5. St. Louis beat New Orleans to break that winless start
6. New Orleans beat Seattle on a Sunday night to break their own winless start
7. Seattle beat Chicago in the game NBC kicked to the curb (from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon)
8. Chicago beat Green Bay on a Sunday night
9. Green Bay beat Minnesota the game Adrian Peterson got hurt
10. Minnesota beat NY Giants by running back three Eli interceptions
11. NY Giants beat Philadelphia by sacking McNabb 12 times
12. Philadelphia beat Washington on Veteran's Day with Westbrook's late runs
13. Washington annihilated Detroit
14. Detroit annihilated Denver
15. Denver beat Oakland with a well-timed timeout to preempt the game-winning field goal
16. Oakland beat Kansas City to break a 17-game division losing streak
17. Kansas City beat San Diego back when Norv Turner looked especially shaky
18. San Diego beat Indianapolis on a Sunday night
19. Indianapolis beat Tampa Bay when the Bucs had been undefeated
20. Tampa Bay beat Tennessee week 6
21. Tennessee beat Jacksonville with a lot of rushing yards week 1
22. Jacksonville beat Buffalo a few days ago
23. Buffalo beat Cincinnati when Marshawn Lynch took over the game
24. Cincinnati beat Baltimore on Week 1 Monday night
25. Baltimore beat NY Jets a week later
26. NY Jets beat Pittsburgh right before Thanksgiving
27. Pittsburgh clocked Cleveland in Week 1
28. Cleveland beat Houston a few days ago
29. Houston beat Carolina week 2
(Inspired by this column.)
Does Seattle at Philadelphia produce the platonic ideal NFL logo showdown? (That is, put the visiting team's logo on the left and home team's logo on the right.) It's hard to top, specifically because the Philadelphia Eagle is the only logo to face the left instead of the right.
Packers-Cowboys looks like a regular expression.
49ers-Panthers looks like nothing.
Bills-Redskins: Tonto's about to get blindsided!
Texans-Titans: Basically the same logo twice.
Falcons-Rams: almost like a tickbird-rhino symbiosis but not quite
Lions-Vikings: given the cat's posture this is a most unfortunate pairing. It looks like Olaf has a Marques Slocum
Jaguars-Colts: now fluffy, we just need one more X-ray. open your mouth... and bite.
Chargers-Chiefs: boing! it's an arrowhead slinky!
(I got nothing on the rest of them, which is just as well rather than run the gag into the ground.)
"The Rooneys want Heinz Field to be natural. On Monday night, it was a natural disaster. Seeing two TV shots of punted balls landing in the mud and sticking there might convince the Rooneys to take the natural feel away from Heinz in 2008."
--John Clayton
But wouldn't punted balls also stick in the mud of the mythical "corner of Halas & Landry" from all those TV and web video ads?
0. The National Football League commissioner's office (as in literal "judgment," i.e. disciplinary measures)
1. The Miami Dolphins
2. Fans of the Miami Dolphins
3. (but most important) Ricky Williams
For all his pontificating, as far as I can tell Gregg Easterbrook belongs to none of those three groups.
Only Williams himself can decide whether he's living up to potential and, if not, to what extent that's a problem.
While I wasn't paying attention, NBC choose (or else saw no reason to upgrade from) Cincinnati at Pittsburgh as the Week 13 Sunday night game.
Weeks 14-17 still seem to have flex options available; Awful Announcing somehow learned which Sunday afternoon games are protected.
If I had to guess...
Week 14: Upgrade from Colts-Ravens to Cardinals-Seawhawks (Steelers-Patriots and Giants-Eagles are both protected; Cowboys-Lions is unavailable because Dallas is maxed out on prime time appearances)
Week 15: Keep Giants-Redskins
Week 16: Upgrade from Buccaneers-49ers to whichever of (Eagles-Saints, Redskins-Vikings) has greater playoff implications as of the selection deadline.
Week 17: Too soon to tell and will depend entirely on playoff implications, but Lions-Packers and Titans-Colts are among the distinct possibilities. (Chiefs-Jets is overwhelmingly likely to be rejected.)
(Week two of pasting all content directly from a spreadsheet.)
There are nine teams at 5-6, none of whom play tomorrow. I have seven of them slotted in the 15-21 range. Pairwise they all make sense to me but if somebody said, "No, you're wrong, Denver should be #20 instead of #17"... it's not like I'd spend much time arguing either way.
Fewer comments than usual but from here on out I'm including each team's full remaining regular season schedule.
Monday update: I almost flipped the Steelers and Jaguars, but not quite.
32. Miami (0-11) (Last week: 31) I don't think they'll go 0-16 though. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo, vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)
31. Atlanta (3-8) (Last week: 29) Outscored 62-20 in their last two games (both at home). (Remaining games: at St. Louis, vs. New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)
30. San Francisco (3-8) (Last week: 32) Wins entirely attributable to two missed field goals and a defender foolishly failing to bat a ball out of the end zone. (Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Minnesota, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)
29. St. Louis (2-9) (Last week: 30) (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at Cincinnati, vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)
28. NY Jets (2-9) (Last week: 27) (Remaining games: at Miami, vs. Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)
27. Carolina (4-7) (Last week: 25) Can't win at home; QB situation is a mess. (Remaining games: vs. San Francisco, at Jacksonville, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)
26. Oakland (3-8) (Last week: 28) (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)
25. Baltimore (4-7) (Last week: 23) Think New England will be mad? (Remaining games: vs. New England, vs. Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)
24. Cincinnati (4-7) (Last week: 26) (Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)
23. Arizona (5-6) (Last week: 22) For awhile last week I wondered if I'd egregiously underrated this team. Guess not. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)
22. Kansas City (4-7) (Last week: 21) (Remaining games: vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)
21. Minnesota (5-6) (Last week: 24) Other than the Cardinals and Eagles, these 5-6 teams are practically interchangeable even aside from their records. I readily admit that defeats the purpose of bothering to read a power poll, much less write one. (Remaining games: vs. Detroit, at San Francisco, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)
20. Chicago (5-6) (Last week: 20) I almost ranked them higher but playing at home vs. Denver they shouldn't have had to rally from a 14-point deficit. (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Washington, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)
19. New Orleans (5-6) (Last week: 19) Crushed a team that seems to be phoning it in after all. (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)
18. Buffalo (5-6) (Last week: 18) (Remaining games: at Washington, vs. Miami, at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)
17. Denver (5-6) (Last week: 15) Blew it. The other teams in the 15-18 tier lost road games that they were reasonably expected to lose. (Remaining games: at Oakland, vs. Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)
16. Houston (5-6) (Last week: 17) (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)
15. Washington (5-6) (Last week: 14) (Remaining games: vs. Buffalo, vs. Chicago, at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)
14. Tennessee (6-5) (Last week: 10) Overreaction? Maybe. But what happened? Injuries only explain one side of the ball. (Remaining games: vs. Houston, vs. San Diego, at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)
13. Detroit (6-5) (Last week: 12) Tiebreaker situation means 8-8 is unlikely to be enough; that means they need to win at San Diego, at Green Bay, or vs. Dallas. Good luck! (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Dallas, at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)
12. Philadelphia (5-6) (Last week: 16) Computer programs love this team. Games like this show that the potential is always there. It's also pretty nifty that this week's top 12 match my (as of now) predicted playoff teams. (Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)
11. Seattle (7-4) (Last week: 13) (Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs. Arizona, at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)
10. NY Giants (7-4) (Last week: 5) No need to panic over one bad game; that said, it was a terrible game. At least one NFC East team must miss the playoffs, and neither the Eagles nor Redskins are laying down. (Remaining games: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)
9. Cleveland (7-4) (Last week: 11) Are you ready for a(nother) Browns-Steelers wild card game? The last one was most excellent. (Remaining games: at Arizona, at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)
8. Tampa Bay (7-4) (Last week: 8) The first seven slots all seem obvious to me, as does Seattle at #11. Like the whole mess of non-extreme 5-6 teams, #8 to #10 might be interchangeable. (Remaining games: at New Orleans, at Houston, vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)
7. San Diego (6-5) (Last week: 9) (Remaining games: at Kansas City, at Tennessee, vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)
6. Jacksonville (8-3) (Last week: 7) (Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs. Carolina, at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)
5. Pittsburgh (8-3) (Last week: 6) (Remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, at New England, vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)
4. Indianapolis (9-2) (Last week: 4) (Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)
3. Green Bay (10-1) (Last week: 3) (Remaining games: at Dallas, vs. Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)
2. Dallas (10-1) (Last week: 2) (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)
1. New England (11-0) (Last week: 1) (Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)
"That big-college football and men's basketball players should be paid is a perennial contention. TMQ thinks the idea is wrong on these scores: First, the players already receive tuition, room and board, which is hardly an inconsequential form of payment; second, paying college players would ruin college sports, thus killing the golden goose and ending the money flow."
--TMQ (emphasis added)
While we're here (these both probably ought to have been part of the post below; such is life), yet another Easterbrook-ism:
"[D]o you really need to pay people $50 million a year to inspire them to work hard? The unstated assumption is that for anything less than ultraextravagant pay, modern CEOs will refuse to perform their duties. Anybody like that should not be hired in the first place!"
On the planet where TMQ resides, all employer-executive negotiations are within a bilateral monopoly. (Nobody gets better offers elsewhere.)
Do you think CEO compensation represents a market inefficiency? If so, why do you think the efficient market hypothesis failed? (My gut answers are "Yes" and "Because boards of directors have blatant conflicts of interest," but TMQ's knee-jerk populism doesn't even reach such questions.)
In your opinion, was Bush vs. Gore resolved correctly?
In your opinion, was this football game resolved correctly?
I say yes to both. I realize a case could be made that those positions aren't consistent, but I think enough distinguishes the two. (Summoning football players from the dressing room isn't quite on the same level as waiting weeks/months to see who leads a nation of 250 million people.)
If you were a devil's advocate could you make a coherent, consistent case for "no" to both questions?
I think it's safe to say the Patriots will hold their 28-7 lead.
Excel concatenation formulas tweaked to add win-loss records. Some fallout from Monday night.
32. San Francisco (2-8) (Last week: 31) Follow their historically bad DVOA (basically a performance assessment) at FootballOutsiders.com (Week 12: at Arizona)
31. Miami (0-10) (Last week: 32) Yes, you'd intuitively expect to see the only winless team at the bottom. But that's not ironclad. If the Dolphins and 49ers met next week at a neutral site, I think Miami would be more likely to win. Discuss. (Week 12: at Pittsburgh (Monday))
30. St. Louis (2-8) (Last week: 29) I'm glad I didn't watch. (Week 12: vs. Seattle)
29. Atlanta (3-7) (Last week: 26) The Paris 1941 method of protecting one's house. (Week 12: vs. Indianapolis (Thursday))
28. Oakland (2-8) (Last week: 28) How many games in NFL history have been 19-19 at the half? (Week 12: at Kansas City)
27. NY Jets (2-8) (Last week: 30) Any given game should be winnable by any given home team. (Week 12: at Dallas (Thursday))
26. Cincinnati (3-7) (Last week: 25) Throwing five TD passes would usually be a good thing. (Week 12: vs. Tennessee)
25. Carolina (4-6) (Last week: 27) Despite last week's comment, not phoning it in just yet. (Week 12: vs. New Orleans)
24. Minnesota (4-6) (Last week: 24) Didn't miss Adrian Peterson Week 11. Might miss him Week 12. (Week 12: at NY Giants)
23. Baltimore (4-6) (Last week: 22) The system worked. (Week 12: at San Diego)
22. Arizona (5-5) (Last week: 20) Interceptions are mostly skill, interception returns mostly luck. (Week 12: vs. San Francisco)
21. Kansas City (4-6) (Last week: 21) I got nothing (1 of 3) (Week 12: vs. Oakland)
20. Chicago (4-6) (Last week: 18) I got nothing (2 of 3) (Week 12: vs. Denver)
19. New Orleans (4-6) (Last week: 15) I got nothing (3 of 3) (Week 12: at Carolina)
18. Buffalo (5-5) (Last week: 19) Maybe hosting the 2007 Patriots is an exception to the rule mentioned in the Jets comment? (Week 12: at Jacksonville)
17. Houston (5-5) (Last week: 23) OK, who do you put in this spot then? In any event it's a much better team if Schaub and Johnson are both healthy. (Week 12: at Cleveland)
16. Philadelphia (5-5) (Last week: 16) Not Donovan McNabb's finest game. (Week 12: at New England (Sunday night))
15. Denver (5-5) (Last week: 17) The Broncos will have gone from October 7 to December 9 without a Sunday afternoon home game. (Week 12: at Chicago)
14. Washington (5-5) (Last week: 14) They hung in there on the road against a much better team. (Week 12: at Tampa Bay)
13. Seattle (6-4) (Last week: 13) Likely to be the worst playoff team yet receive a home game. (Week 12: at St. Louis)
12. Detroit (6-4) (Last week: 11) On the bright side, imagine predicting in August that the Lions would be as good as 7-9 (or even 8-8!). (Week 12: vs. Green Bay (Thursday))
11. Cleveland (6-4) (Last week: 12) Big road win: check. Finally some defense: not so much. (Week 12: vs. Houston)
10. Tennessee (6-4) (Last week: 8) Now we know who anchored their defense. (Week 12: at Cincinnati)
9. San Diego (5-5) (Last week: 9) They hung in there on the road against a quasi-elite team. (Week 12: vs. Baltimore)
8. Tampa Bay (6-4) (Last week: 10) A worthy NFC semi-finalist. (Week 12: vs. Washington)
7. Jacksonville (7-3) (Last week: 7) Playoff rematch in San Diego? (Week 12: vs. Buffalo)
6. Pittsburgh (7-3) (Last week: 5) The two Pennsylvania teams affect my fantasy football more than any other. This was supposed to be a cakewalk (as was the Eagles-Dolphins game). Oh well. (Week 12: vs. Miami)
5. NY Giants (7-3) (Last week: 6) Good bounceback. (Week 12: vs. Minnesota)
4. Indianapolis (8-2) (Last week: 3) What's wrong (it's not just the injuries), and will a trip to Atlanta cure it? (Week 12: at Atlanta (Thursday))
3. Green Bay (9-1) (Last week: 4) Thursday, November 29, at Dallas: If only this billion-dollar league didn't have the combination of greed and hubris to charge an extortionary price, then try to blame companies unwilling to pay that price. Business news aside, four of their next five are on the road. (Week 12: at Detroit (Thursday))
2. Dallas (9-1) (Last week: 2) Three straight home games are awfully convenient this time of year. (Week 12: vs. NY Jets (Thursday))
1. New England (10-0) (Last week: 1) I had a 40-point lead. The other guy had Randy Moss. If he wins, there's a chance Moss will have outscored the rest of his team combined. (So one way or another it's an interesting week for my own team to have come in way below par.) (Week 12: vs. Philadelphia (Sunday night))
If you need to make good with the boss, take some tips from Ricky Williams. The 1998 Heisman Trophy-winning running back knows what it takes to get back in an employer's good graces:
Lose the scraggly homeless man beard.
--in the SF Chronicle (of all places)
Fantasy football 7, English language 0.
"As a Ronnie Brown keeper-league owner who feared that his team's chances for a championship were ruined the moment that Brown suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7, Jesse Chatman has quickly emerged as a personal favorite and quasi-savior."
--first god-forsaken sentence of this column
Either there is yet another Adrian Peterson meme (to go with Purple Jesus, All Day, and Employee of the Month*), or somebody at ESPN's fantasy sports division does not know how to spell "withdrawal."
*- Cheap shot, since, he didn't receive paychecks from the car dealership in question. (Rather, he took advantage of a "standard practice" where in the dealership let owners return cars with buyer's remorse.)
Maurice Morris or Bobby Engram? (need at least 6.85 points in a .1 points per yard league)
(Somewhere in Cooch's archives)
NBC very heavily promoted the Week 11 "flex game": New England at Buffalo. Funny things about this:
1. We know the Bills' hot streak is based on an easy schedule.
2. Flexes aside, Week 12's default Sunday night game was to be Philadelphia at New England. I assume they won't do the Patriots twice in a row.
3. There's a paucity of good Sunday Week 12 games. The best by default seems to be Washington at Tampa Bay (or Buffalo at Jacksonville! - but I assume they won't do the Bills twice in a row either).
4. Week 12 Monday night is Miami at Pittsburgh. That's even an more heinous mismatch than NY Jets at Dallas on Thanksgiving proper! (And also more heinous than Indianapolis at Atlanta, later Thanksgiving night, only on pay TV.)
5. The Week 11 "4:05 game" is Pittsburgh at NY Jets. As far as I can tell that means the New York market won't get to see Washington at Dallas.
6. Week 12 "4:15 games": Baltimore at San Diego, or Denver at Chicago. Pick your poison!
"The coach is killing me!" (reference)
Update to reflect Monday night's game. Seattle up two, Washington and New Orleans each down one.
32. Miami (0-9) (Last week: 31) There can be only one. (Week 11: at Philadelphia)
31. San Francisco (2-7) (Last week: 30) Could move up by at least playing the Seahawks tight on Monday. (Week 11: vs. St. Louis)
30. NY Jets (1-8) (Last week: 29) Bye. (Week 11: vs. Pittsburgh)
29. St. Louis (1-8) (Last week: 32) Is this an overreaction? (I almost put them at 28.) The thing is, Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are significantly healthier than two weeks (much less one month) ago. In hindsight their tailspin shouldn't have surprised: Imagine if the Eagles lost both McNabb and Westbrook, or the Chargers both Rivers and Tomlinson. (Week 11: at San Francisco)
28. Oakland (2-7) (Last week: 27) I checked scores around 4. The Raiders had just gotten the ball, down 10-6 with about two minutes left. Next thing I knew they'd just gotten the ball, down 17-6 with about two minutes left. (Week 11: at Minnesota)
27. Carolina (4-5) (Last week: 24) He's dead, Jim. (Week 11: at Green Bay)
26. Atlanta (3-6) (Last week: 28) Close losses are turning into close wins. Joey Harrington led a game-winning drive on the road. That said, their remaining schedule isn't easy. (Week 11: vs. Tampa Bay)
25. Cincinnati (3-6) (Last week: 26) I hope Shayne Graham didn't face any of your fantasy teams. (Week 11: vs. Cincinnati)
24. Minnesota (3-6) (Last week: 17) Brian was so right about this team. And that was before the Peterson injury. (Week 11: vs. Oakland)
23. Houston (4-5) (Last week: 25) Bye. (Week 11: vs. New Orleans)
22. Baltimore (4-5) (Last week: 15) What an egg to lay! At home against the Bengals defense (the Bengals!) and their only offense is a late shutout-averting touchdown. Next four are against Cleveland, San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis. (Week 11: vs. Cleveland)
21. Kansas City (4-5) (Last week: 19) Those "two straight big home games" turned into two straight home losses. And now Brodie Croyle. And now... (Week 11: at Indianapolis)
20. Arizona (4-5) (Last week: 23) Dear Jon, Who's on God's Team now? Love, Kurt. (Week 11: at Cincinnati)
19. Buffalo (5-4) (Last week: 20) That's four in a row since the Monday night collapse. Given the rest of their slate I'd be surprised if they made it to 8-8. Look at their opponents from the winning streak then compare their trajectory on other polls to their trajectory on this one. (Going back to the beginning: 19, 22, 24, 24, 21, 25*, 25, 24, 20, 19. The biggest drop was on their bye week and basically amounted to "Okay, ZD, I see your point," wiping out the effect of my bumping them up three spots for nearly beating Dallas.) (Week 11: vs. New England, Sunday night)
18. Chicago (4-5) (Last week: 18) They really needed Rex back? (Week 11: at Seattle)
17. Denver (4-5) (Last week: 21) Not dead yet! (1 of 2) (Week 11: vs. Tennessee, Monday night)
16. Philadelphia (4-5) (Last week: 22) Not dead yet! (2 of 2) (Week 11: vs. Miami)
15. New Orleans (4-5) (Last week: 12) Now that's the Drew Brees that I dropped in a fantasy league. Whoever picked in up in DownWith: Ha! I hope you started him this weekend. (Week 11: at Houston)
14. Washington (5-4) (Last week: 13) In the big 4th quarter sequence, Eagles defense to Clinton Portis: "No, you can't have a touchdown!" Followed by Brian Westbrook to Redskins defense: "No, you can't stop me!" The second one happened twice. (Week 11: at Dallas)
13. Seattle (5-4) (Last week: 16) TBA. (After last Monday I forgot to change the Baltimore comment from "TBA" to something snarky. You'd think this won't be a problem tomorrow. You'd think.) (Week 11: vs. Chicago)
12. Cleveland (5-4) (Last week: 14) Every fiber of my being bristles about b
