(Guaranteed accurate until the next time I change my mind, or election day itself, whichever comes first.)
Start with the Real Clear Politics map found here. Flip Virginia, Indiana, and New Hampshire over to McCain (right now Obama's poll numbers will be inflated because the Democratic primary has gotten more attention, though that effect should gradually recede) - election still goes to Obama.
And yes, I read fivethirtyeight.com when I think of it.
Posted by Matt Bruce at June 27, 2008 11:14 AM