This Robert Novak map (found here) actually leads me to believe Obama should be a heavy favorite.
Novak gives a 270-268 McCain lead -- with McCain carrying all of (Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico). By contrast the only Obama states (on Novak's map) that I see McCain with a chance of swiping are Colorado and New Hampshire.
I just don't see a Republican presidential candidate winning Ohio in 2008. Maybe the foreclosure mess somehow solves itself in the next few months but I doubt it.
Posted by Matt Bruce at May 29, 2008 11:55 AMMcCain has a good chance in Minnesota, believe it or not...especially if the Pawlenty VP speculation comes to bear.
Posted by: Greg at May 29, 2008 12:02 PMWasn't one of the guys rumored to be on McCain's short list from Ohio?
Posted by: Kubi at May 29, 2008 04:50 PMRob Portman is a former Rep. from suburbanCincinnati and wouldn't be a bad choice for McCain.
I think Ohio's only slightly plausible with Portman, even with the new Democrat AG forced to resign, the previous Republican governor and associates really screwed the pooch there. The interesting bits would be how they're discounting PA and MI. I think both are a bit more in play than Ohio.
Posted by: DEK at May 30, 2008 08:44 AMI've been following the website http://electoral-vote.com, which has daily updates of state-by-state presidential polls. It has maps for Obama vs. McCain and for Clinton vs. McCain. For most of the past few weeks, the maps have shown Clinton beating McCain, but Obama losing to McCain. The biggest factor in the difference has been Florida.