May 16, 2008

Breathtaking Statistical Manipulation of the Day

"Gasoline is also a fairly minor expense when you consider the overall cost of car ownership. In 1975, gasoline made up 33.4 percent of the total cost of owning and operating a car. By 2006, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, gasoline costs had declined to just 17.1 percent of the total cost of car ownership. Of course, fuel costs have risen by about $1 per gallon since 2006, but even with those increases, fuel continues to be a relatively small part of the cost of car ownership. By contrast, the fixed costs of ownership—insurance, licensing, taxes, and financing—have increased nearly fivefold since 1975."
--Robert Bryce, Slate

I don't necessarily disagree with his overall point. I remember making fun of people who complained about $2.00 gas, because adjusted for inflation we were still doing well. But can you count the sleights of hand in the quote above? They include:

1. Selective endpoints. (1975 sounds vaguely like a round number, but gosh, weren't we just getting over a price shock at the time?)

2. Obfuscation by constant changing of units. Here's a percent stat... and then here's a "change since 2006" that he compares to a "change since 1975." What, you're not smart enough to convert in your head on the fly?

Posted by Matt Bruce at May 16, 2008 02:48 PM
What Other People Say

1975 isn't a bad endpoint at all, based on the numbers below. 1973 was a bit of a low point but compared to other years before and shortly after, it's off by no more than 10%, 15% at most, and it's significantly lower than choosing 1980-1981 would have been.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2005/fcvt_fotw364.html

Interesting point he makes, though, since people take it for granted that cars have gotten a lot more expensive as technology and standards have improved.

Posted by: M.S. at May 16, 2008 05:18 PM
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