November 25, 2007

The FSBD Top 32: Week 12

(Week two of pasting all content directly from a spreadsheet.)

There are nine teams at 5-6, none of whom play tomorrow. I have seven of them slotted in the 15-21 range. Pairwise they all make sense to me but if somebody said, "No, you're wrong, Denver should be #20 instead of #17"... it's not like I'd spend much time arguing either way.

Fewer comments than usual but from here on out I'm including each team's full remaining regular season schedule.

Monday update: I almost flipped the Steelers and Jaguars, but not quite.

32. Miami (0-11) (Last week: 31) I don't think they'll go 0-16 though. (Remaining games: vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo, vs. Baltimore, at New England, vs. Cincinnati)

31. Atlanta (3-8) (Last week: 29) Outscored 62-20 in their last two games (both at home). (Remaining games: at St. Louis, vs. New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, at Arizona, vs. Seattle)

30. San Francisco (3-8) (Last week: 32) Wins entirely attributable to two missed field goals and a defender foolishly failing to bat a ball out of the end zone. (Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Minnesota, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tampa Bay, at Cleveland)

29. St. Louis (2-9) (Last week: 30) (Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at Cincinnati, vs. Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Arizona)

28. NY Jets (2-9) (Last week: 27) (Remaining games: at Miami, vs. Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, vs. Kansas City)

27. Carolina (4-7) (Last week: 25) Can't win at home; QB situation is a mess. (Remaining games: vs. San Francisco, at Jacksonville, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, at Tampa Bay)

26. Oakland (3-8) (Last week: 28) (Remaining games: vs. Denver, at Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs. San Diego)

25. Baltimore (4-7) (Last week: 23) Think New England will be mad? (Remaining games: vs. New England, vs. Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh)

24. Cincinnati (4-7) (Last week: 26) (Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs. St. Louis, at San Francisco, vs. Cleveland, at Miami)

23. Arizona (5-6) (Last week: 22) For awhile last week I wondered if I'd egregiously underrated this team. Guess not. (Remaining games: vs. Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, vs. Atlanta, vs. St. Louis)

22. Kansas City (4-7) (Last week: 21) (Remaining games: vs. San Diego, at Denver, vs. Tennessee, at Detroit, at NY Jets)

21. Minnesota (5-6) (Last week: 24) Other than the Cardinals and Eagles, these 5-6 teams are practically interchangeable even aside from their records. I readily admit that defeats the purpose of bothering to read a power poll, much less write one. (Remaining games: vs. Detroit, at San Francisco, vs. Chicago, vs. Washington, at Denver)

20. Chicago (5-6) (Last week: 20) I almost ranked them higher but playing at home vs. Denver they shouldn't have had to rally from a 14-point deficit. (Remaining games: vs. NY Giants, at Washington, at Minnesota, vs. Green Bay, vs. New Orleans)

19. New Orleans (5-6) (Last week: 19) Crushed a team that seems to be phoning it in after all. (Remaining games: vs. Tampa Bay, at Atlanta, vs. Arizona, vs. Philadelphia, at Chicago)

18. Buffalo (5-6) (Last week: 18) (Remaining games: at Washington, vs. Miami, at Cleveland, vs. NY Giants, at Philadelphia)

17. Denver (5-6) (Last week: 15) Blew it. The other teams in the 15-18 tier lost road games that they were reasonably expected to lose. (Remaining games: at Oakland, vs. Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, vs. Minnesota)

16. Houston (5-6) (Last week: 17) (Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Denver, at Indianapolis, vs. Jacksonville)

15. Washington (5-6) (Last week: 14) (Remaining games: vs. Buffalo, vs. Chicago, at NY Giants, at Minnesota, vs. Dallas)

14. Tennessee (6-5) (Last week: 10) Overreaction? Maybe. But what happened? Injuries only explain one side of the ball. (Remaining games: vs. Houston, vs. San Diego, at Kansas City, vs. NY Jets, at Indianapolis)

13. Detroit (6-5) (Last week: 12) Tiebreaker situation means 8-8 is unlikely to be enough; that means they need to win at San Diego, at Green Bay, or vs. Dallas. Good luck! (Remaining games: at Minnesota, vs. Dallas, at San Diego, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)

12. Philadelphia (5-6) (Last week: 16) Computer programs love this team. Games like this show that the potential is always there. It's also pretty nifty that this week's top 12 match my (as of now) predicted playoff teams. (Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. NY Giants, at Dallas, at New Orleans, vs. Buffalo)

11. Seattle (7-4) (Last week: 13) (Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs. Arizona, at Carolina, vs. Baltimore, at Atlanta)

10. NY Giants (7-4) (Last week: 5) No need to panic over one bad game; that said, it was a terrible game. At least one NFC East team must miss the playoffs, and neither the Eagles nor Redskins are laying down. (Remaining games: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Washington, at Buffalo, vs. New England)

9. Cleveland (7-4) (Last week: 11) Are you ready for a(nother) Browns-Steelers wild card game? The last one was most excellent. (Remaining games: at Arizona, at NY Jets, vs. Buffalo, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco)

8. Tampa Bay (7-4) (Last week: 8) The first seven slots all seem obvious to me, as does Seattle at #11. Like the whole mess of non-extreme 5-6 teams, #8 to #10 might be interchangeable. (Remaining games: at New Orleans, at Houston, vs. Atlanta, at San Francisco, vs. Carolina)

7. San Diego (6-5) (Last week: 9) (Remaining games: at Kansas City, at Tennessee, vs. Detroit, vs. Denver, at Oakland)

6. Jacksonville (8-3) (Last week: 7) (Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs. Carolina, at Pittsburgh, vs. Oakland, at Houston)

5. Pittsburgh (8-3) (Last week: 6) (Remaining games: vs. Cincinnati, at New England, vs. Jacksonville, at St. Louis, at Baltimore)

4. Indianapolis (9-2) (Last week: 4) (Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. Tennessee)

3. Green Bay (10-1) (Last week: 3) (Remaining games: at Dallas, vs. Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, vs. Detroit)

2. Dallas (10-1) (Last week: 2) (Remaining games: vs. Green Bay, at Detroit, vs. Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington)

1. New England (11-0) (Last week: 1) (Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Miami, at NY Giants)

Posted by Matt Bruce at November 25, 2007 11:26 PM
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