Fancy Store-Bought Dirt

The FSBD Top 32: Week 8

Could change after Monday; Denver is more likely to move up or down than Green Bay.

An after-the-fact (but still Sunday) note that these pass the smell-test:

1. All but one of the top 10 teams are at least three games above .500. The exception is San Diego (4-3), which is on a roll after the tough early schedule (and terrible Week 4 loss to KC).

2. All but one of the 11-24 teams are within a game of .500 (hence within a game of each other). The exception is reigning NFC Champion Chicago at 3-5.

3. All but one of the bottom eight teams are at least three games below .500. The exception is Houston, at 3-5 but in a tailspin (and with an injured QB).

32. St. Louis (0-8) (Last week: 32) Welcome back S. Jackson! Er, just kidding. (Week 9: bye)

31. Miami (0-8) (Last week: 31) A good week for the NFL: the two best teams play each other, the two worst teams play nobody. (Week 9: bye)

30. San Francisco (2-5) (Last week: 30) I'm not entirely convinced that the 49ers could beat either team below them at a neutral site. More likely than not, but still. (Week 9: at Atlanta)

29. NY Jets (1-7) (Last week: 28) Kellen Clemens is no panacea. I get the impression this team is just unwatchable. (Week 9: vs. Washington)

28. Atlanta (1-6) (Last week: 29)Bye. (Week 9: vs. San Francisco)

27. Houston (3-5) (Last week: 26) Remember when they got off to that great start? Good times, especially when Simmons panicked about passing them up as a sleeper. This is the sort of franchise that, for lack of institutional history/memory, I don't think can recover well from such a terrible stretch. (Week 9: at Oakland)

26. Oakland (2-5) (Last week: 27) Points scored before the bye: 21, 20, 26, 35. After the bye: 14, 10, 9. (Week 9: vs. Houston)

25. Cincinnati (2-5) (Last week: 23) Marvin Lewis has never had a losing season as ahead coach. That streak is in big trouble. (Week 9: at Buffalo)

24. Buffalo (3-4) (Last week: 25) Edwards? Losman? Flutie? (Week 9: at Cincinnati)

23. Minnesota (3-4) (Last week: 19) Just when I became willing to not write them off. I suppose they could prove me wrong again, though. League's #1 rushing defense, meet LaDainian Tomlinson. (Week 9: vs. San Diego)

22. Cleveland (4-3) (Last week: 24) Finally a road win, if only against the worst team in the league. This is probably one of the last big gaps between me and any given other poll. A good game a week from now could go a long way towards my believing in their decency, but the next three games are difficult. (Week 9: vs. Seattle)

21. Carolina (4-3) (Last week: 19) Sure, this will look weird given that they beat both teams above them. But some weird quarterbacks were involved one game, and the other was a team that may have righted its ship. (Week 9: at Tennessee)

20. New Orleans (3-4) (Last week: 22) On the one hand the 49ers are putrid. On the other, three wins in a row, something to build on. Only Quinn Gray stands between them and .500. (Week 9: vs. Jacksonville)

19. Arizona (3-4) (Last week: 15) Some teams slip downward on their byes just because. (Week 9: at Tampa Bay)

18. Kansas City (4-3) (Last week: 21) Some teams float upward on their byes just because. It's misleading to claim that the sole criterion is whether I think Team A would beat Team B at a neutral site right now: in theory I could think that a circle of death of match-up exploitation exists. (Good old "Patriots own Indy, Colts own Denver, Broncos own New England.") But in this case it's clear as day to me (the moment I type this) that the Chiefs could beat the Cardinals, and that there's a clean break here. In any case, two straight big home games lie ahead. (Week 9: vs. Green Bay)

17. Chicago (3-5) (Last week: 13) Last four weeks: dramatic road win, home letdown, repeat the process. Must be maddening. (Week 9: bye)

16. Philadelphia (3-4) (Last week: 17) A desperately-needed road win. Would you think of the upcoming Cowboy game as must-win? (Week 9: vs. Dallas)

15. Denver (3-3) (Last week: 16) Could end up in a wide range of slots after tomorrow. Two of the most interesting (i.e. unknown quantity) teams in the league face each other a week from now. (Week 9: at Detroit)

14. Washington (4-3) (Last week: 14) These days, "at New England" = mulligan. Think they'll take some anger out on the Jets? (Week 9: at NY Jets)

13. Tampa Bay (4-4) (Last week: 10) They lost, at home, to a team quarterbacked by Quinn Gray. Now they're at .500 and injuries are catching up. (Week 9: vs. Arizona)

12. Seattle (4-3) (Last week: 12) Bye. (Week 9: at Cleveland)

11. Baltimore (4-3) (Last week: 11) Bye. I having a nagging feeling the Seahawks and Ravens are both overrated on this list. (Week 9: at Pittsburgh)

10. Detroit (5-2) (Last week: 20) Exactly the kind of leap that shouldn't happen in a calm, rational poll. But the arguments for moving any other team to this spot fail badly. In theory this results from a divisional road win against the defending NFC Champion, and not in a close game either. Also, of course, I was late to the party. (Week 9: vs. Denver)

9. Jacksonville (5-2) (Last week: 9) Interesting Week 10 rematch coming up, but first... (Week 9: at New Orleans)

8. Tennessee (5-2) (Last week: 8) The head-to-head comparison is very interesting: The Titans beat the Jaguars at Jacksonville. Both teams lost at home to the Colts (Tennessee kept it much closer). The Titans lost at Tampa Bay, where Jacksonville just won. On balance it's close but unambiguous, mainly because of the head-to-head result. (Week 9: vs. Carolina)

7. NY Giants (6-2) (Last week: 6) No end of amusement that the Brits booed them for running out the clock. (Week 9: bye)

6. San Diego (4-3) (Last week: 7) They didn't suffer a post-fire emotional let-down. (Week 9: at Minnesota)

5. Pittsburgh (5-2) (Last week: 5) Road wins in the division are underrated. (Week 9: vs. Baltimore)

4. Green Bay (5-1) (Last week: 4) Might fall after the Monday night game, very unlikely to rise. (Week 9: at Kansas City)

3. Dallas (6-1) (Last week: 3) Bye. (Week 9: at Philadelphia)

2. Indianapolis (7-0) (Last week: 2) I hear there's a big game coming up. (Week 9: vs. New England)

1. New England (8-0) (Last week: 1) So help me I thought the Redskins would cover. (Week 9: at Indianapolis)

Posted by Matt Bruce at October 28, 2007 07:00 PM