August 09, 2007

Probability Theory of the Day

Also feeling pangs of regret must be the San Francisco cab driver who drove Murphy and Kamal from the airport to their hotel. Hoping to get out of the $55 fare, they told the driver that if they caught Bonds' record home run ball, they'd give him a couple thousand dollars.

"He turned me down, man," Murphy said.
--Yahoo! Sports

I think the actual probability that Bonds would hit his record-breaking home run that night, AND that one of those guys would catch it, was a good deal less than 55 in 10,000.

"What do you do for a living?"

"I drive cabs... AND I chase inside straight draws."

Posted by Matt Bruce at August 9, 2007 02:29 PM
What Other People Say

...and that the guys would try to find him, and that given that they actually would find the cabbie...

Posted by: Nate at August 9, 2007 02:56 PM
Talk At Me









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