(Through relevant games of Sunday, December 26, and barring miraculous fourth-quarter comebacks...)
Shorter, less rigorous version:
In the AFC, 1-4 are Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, and San Diego in that order, regardless of Week 17 results. #5 seed is the Jets' to lose and #6 is the Broncos' to lose, though the Bills are in good position to mess with both spots and seeding given BUF's tiebreaker advantage over NYJ. Baltimore and Jacksonville are alive for the #6 seed but need tons of help.
In the NFC, 1-3 are Philly, Atlanta, and Green Bay in that order, regardless of Week 17 results (or even Week 16 Monday night). Seattle clinches a playoff spot but not necessarily the #4 just yet (though they're in great position for it). #5 is Minnesota's to lose, though they could do so in spectacular fashion (or slip to #6). The other wild card spot likely goes to the winner of Carolina-New Orleans, though St. Louis is in a fine position to ruin things for exactly one of (Seattle, Minnesota, or the CAR/NO winner).
Longer, allegedly completely rigorous version:
AFC Playoff Contenders
Pittsburgh (15-1 or 14-2), clinched #1 seed, head-to-head over NE
New England (14-2 or 13-3), clinched #2 seed, head-to-head over Indy
Indianapolis (13-3 or 12-4), clinched #3 seed, head-to-head over San Diego
San Diego (12-4 or 11-5), clinched #4 seed
NY Jets (11-5 or 10-6),
#5 seed with a win at STL or Buffalo loss vs. PIT
#6 seed if they lose at STL, Buffalo wins vs. PIT, and Denver loses vs. IND
out of the playoffs if they lose at STL, Buffalo wins vs. PIT, and Denver wins vs. IND
(Two-way ties at 10-6: Jets over Denver on common opponents, but Buffalo over Jets on common opponents. If all three of those teams finished at 10-6, then NYJ would be SOL because the tiebreak within the division would be applied before even comparing either AFC East team to Denver. For the NFL's purposes, Buffalo and Denver would have a two-way tie for the #5 seed, then after Denver won that on conference record, Jets would lose the tie to Buffalo for the #6 seed.)
Denver (10-6 or 9-7)
#5 seed with a win vs. IND, Buffalo win vs. PIT, and Jets loss at STL
#6 seed with a win vs. IND and (Bills lose or Jets win)
#6 seed if they lose to IND but (Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Baltimore all also lose)
out of the playoffs if they lose to IND and (any of BUF, JAX, or BAL) win
Buffalo (10-6 or 9-7)
#5 seed with a win vs. PIT, Jets loss at STL, and Denver loss vs. IND
#6 seed with a win vs. PIT and (Jets lose at STL or Denver loses vs. IND)
out of the playoffs if they win vs. PIT but (Jets win and Denver wins)
out of the playoffs if they lose vs. PIT
Baltimore (9-7 or 8-8)
#6 seed with a win at MIA, Denver loss vs. IND, and Buffalo loss vs. PIT
(strength of victory, with or without JAX in the mix)
out of the playoffs otherwise
Jacksonville (9-7 or 8-8)
#6 seed with a win at OAK, Denver loss vs. IND, Buffalo loss vs. PIT, and
Baltimore loss at MIA
(head-to-head sweep over Buffalo and Denver, but inapplicable if Baltimore is in the mix)
out of the playoffs otherwise
NFC Playoff Contenders
Philadelphia (15-1, 14-2, or 13-3), clinched #1 seed
Atlanta (12-4 or 11-5), clinched #2 seed
Green Bay (10-6 or 9-7), clinched #3 seed, common opponents over SEA
Seattle (9-7 or 8-8),
#4 seed with a win vs. ATL or one St. Louis loss (either vs. PHI or vs. NYJ)
#5 seed if they lose to ATL, St. Louis wins out, and Minnesota loses at WAS (head-to-head sweep over Minnesota and (Carolina or New Orleans))
#6 seed if they lose to ATL, St. Louis wins out, and Minnesota wins at WAS
Minnesota (9-7 or 8-8)
#5 seed if they win at WAS
#5 seed if they lose at WAS, St. Louis loses at least once, and NO beats CAR (head-to-head over NO)
#6 seed if they lose at WAS, St. Louis loses at least once, and CAR beats NO (inferior conference record)
out of the playoffs if they lose at WAS and St. Louis wins out (inferior conference record)
St. Louis (8-8 or 7-9 or 6-10)
#4 seed if they win vs. PHI, win vs. NYJ, and Seattle loses vs. ATL (head-to-head over Seattle)
#6 seed if they win out, Seattle wins vs. ATL, and Minnesota loses vs. WAS
out of the playoffs if they lose either game or if (Seattle and Minnesota both win)
(In a two-way tie, the Carolina-New Orleans winner has head-to-head over St. Louis but loses to Seattle on head-to-head. In any three-way tie involving Minnesota, the Vikings' inferior conference record drops it to third.)
Carolina (8-8 or 7-9)
#5 seed if they beat New Orleans, Minnesota loses, and (Seattle wins or St. Louis loses at all)
#6 seed if they beat New Orleans, Minnesota wins, and (Seattle wins or St. Louis loses at all)
#6 seed if they beat New Orleans, Minnesota loses, St. Louis wins out, and Seattle loses
out of the playoffs if Minnesota wins, St. Louis wins out, and Seattle loses
out of the playoffs if they lose to New Orleans
New Orleans (8-8 or 7-9)
#5 seed if they beat Carolina, St. Louis wins out, Seattle wins, and Minnesota loses
#6 seed if they beat Carolina and St. Louis loses at all
#6 seed if they beat Carolina, St. Louis wins out, and (Seattle and Minnesota (both win or both lose))
out of the playoffs if St. Louis wins out, Seattle loses, and Minnesota wins
out of the playoffs if they lose to New Orleans
(Carolina and New Orleans tiebreaks aren't quite the same because in a two-way, Minnesota has head-to-head on New Orleans but Carolina takes Minnesota on conference record.)
Posted by Matt Bruce at December 26, 2004 03:42 PM